SnowlieSnowstormson Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro seems to trouble resolving the low level center location south of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 this is an interesting one. lot of different elements to consider. model data...history of these types of set-ups...climo of SNE...they all argue for slightly different outcomes. also have to be confident in which factor you think is most important this go around etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Love to get some numbers in here soon! Not much different the then 0z run was, All i can see is the .75" color shade, Not the actual qpf number which is the same for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Thinking 8-10" for my area including Great Barrington, Pittsfield, and North Adams. The weenie belt towns east of me have a good shot at getting 12"+ totals from this. The shadow zone on the west slope of the Taconics along the NY-22 corridor will probably be 4-7", but Hoosick Falls may only get 3". That town is absolutely brutal for downsloping in these setups. Albany metro is probably 8-10", east slopes of the Catskills looks to do well too with maybe some 10"+ totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not much different the then 0z run was, All i can see is the .75" color shade, Not the actual qpf number which is the same for us Thanks Jeff, going to be fun. Glad to hear it held steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If the low winds up too tight do we start to see qpf cut back a bit out this way? Had to ask since MPM isn't around. I think its been pretty steady that this isnt a wound up low with alot of subsidence. Flow is too fast for it and the high is too strong. Qpf is overrated anyway, you will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Will~ With the surface temps being so cold, do we run a icing issue when the changeover occurs or is snow to sleet with rain only closer to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z BTV has a All Snow Job for S. shore and Boston NE'ward with 1.10 -1.25 so QPF Sets up CF pretty well West around 495 w/ 10's west of it and low 30's east of it....Snow on both sides..... That would set highest totals around 495 up thru Merrimack valley/SNH has track ENE from Souther 1/3 of NJ to just a hair SE of ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 this is an interesting one. lot of different elements to consider. model data...history of these types of set-ups...climo of SNE...they all argue for slightly different outcomes. also have to be confident in which factor you think is most important this go around etc. Man, it sure is. From SE mass to N shore/128 it will be a battlefield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Thanks Picks. You made Chistmas shopping easier along with a nice pint of lager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 interestingly enough there is more precip crawling NE at end of sunday period on Btv Wrf about 6hrs after storm main precip shield "scoots by in am" wth is that?Thats the additional snow we may get with the ULL that we've been discussing during the day on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z BTV has a All Snow Job for S. shore and Boston NE'ward with 1.10 -1.25 so QPF Sets up CF pretty well West around 495 w/ 10's west of it and low 30's east of it....Snow on both sides..... That would set highest totals around 495 up thru Merrimack valley/SNH has track ENE from Souther 1/3 of NJ to just a hair SE of ACK Again, I maintain I think I'll be really close to the cf, would love to stay all snow here, but again I'm skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 interestingly enough there is more precip crawling NE at end of sunday period on Btv Wrf about 6hrs after storm main precip shield "scoots by in am" wth is that? That is the additional snow that Kevin said will happen, while others have said it will be over by early Sunday. ...Interesting indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Thats the additional snow we may get with the ULL that we've been discussing during the day on Sunday I actually think it may be an error on the model ...at the end of the run it looks like it sort of just replays a prior 12 hour period as it has precip moving up from SW Edit ya it appears to be an error I can't find it on the 12z btv wrf anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 the big question for places from around the immediate N shore down to BOS, PYM, Cape etc is what kind of air mass we are advecting in on E winds tomorrow and tomorrow night in the low levels. i kind of go back and forth on this. it's a very cold, dry air mass to start. that's a given. and that air mass departs eastward...so an east wind is OK for a time...in fact, it's a bit of bonus initially. and we could even hang NE for a while. but eventually, you have to think about climo and weigh that in. how long does it take for marine taint to overcome that "potential cold" of the LL air mass? obviously the further east that air mass gets, the more the SBL is going to be warmed...basically transitioning from a cP airmass to a mP airmass. to me, i don't personally see it as much of a sleet deal on the shore (short-lived) but more of an eventual transition to rain as the coastal front really gets established and we get the gradual climb into the 30s (40s down this way). i think there's arguments to be made for 6-8" of snow right to the coast...even to the canal perhaps...but also arguments to be made for far less. that is, show me 996 over MVY and i'll show you rain to BOS...but then again...give me big time arctic air to start and you'll see model guidance warming everything too rapidly and you'll get surprises in there too...ala 07/08 type deals where what looks like 2" verifies as 7". further west, it's a matter of battling the mid-level warming. history suggests that comes a bit quicker than expected. so N of the Pike favored obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I actually think it may be an error on the model ...at the end of the run it looks like it sort of just replays a prior 12 hour period as it has precip moving up from SW in same fashion as it did Sat late nite. That model is prone to some funky things late in its run even though it's only a 60 hour model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattbau43 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Does this seem accurate to everyone? Do you split the difference here for a storm total estimate? Thoughts? I am circled in blue alllllll the way to the right on the coast of Maine. This is the three day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 the big question for places from around the immediate N shore down to BOS, PYM, Cape etc is what kind of air mass we are advecting in on E winds tomorrow and tomorrow night in the low levels. i kind of go back and forth on this. it's a very cold, dry air mass to start. that's a given. and that air mass departs eastward...so an east wind is OK for a time...in fact, it's a bit of bonus initially. and we could even hang NE for a while. but eventually, you have to think about climo and weigh that in. how long does it take for marine taint to overcome that "potential cold" of the LL air mass? obviously the further east that air mass gets, the more the SBL is going to be warmed...basically transitioning from a cP airmass to a mP airmass. to me, i don't personally see it as much of a sleet deal on the shore (short-lived) but more of an eventual transition to rain as the coastal front really gets established and we get the gradual climb into the 30s (40s down this way). i think there's arguments to be made for 6-8" of snow right to the coast...even to the canal perhaps...but also arguments to be made for far less. that is, show me 996 over MVY and i'll show you rain to BOS...but then again...give me big time arctic air to start and you'll see model guidance warming everything too rapidly and you'll get surprises in there too...ala 07/08 type deals where what looks like 2" verifies as 7". further west, it's a matter of battling the mid-level warming. history suggests that comes a bit quicker than expected. so N of the Pike favored obviously. You knocked it out of the park with this post Phil. Agree in every aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Good thoughts Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 You knocked it out of the park with this post Phil. Agree in every aspect. honestly, while i'm 99.9% sure it rains here...the actual snowfall forecast and impact along the immediate shore might be the hardest. i can seriously talk myself into and out of multiple scenarios. lol. further inland, it's snow...then just a matter of how quickly you mix etc. but i could agree with BOS forecasts for 3", 6", 9"...and even really down to the Canal and the Upper Cape i think. there's a massive bust potential. lose / lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Good thoughts Phil. thanks - i wish it was easy to translate the thoughts into what will actually happen. my inclination is to lean cold...but i hate busting high on numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Sign me up for either the Euro or NAM Any idea on how the EURO thermal profile is? I tried looking for some soundings, but I'm at work so I've had to attend to other matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 honestly, while i'm 99.9% sure it rains here...the actual snowfall forecast and impact along the immediate shore might be the hardest. i can seriously talk myself into and out of multiple scenarios. lol. further inland, it's snow...then just a matter of how quickly you mix etc. but i could agree with BOS forecasts for 3", 6", 9"...and even really down to the Canal and the Upper Cape i think. there's a massive bust potential. lose / lose. A lot of it has to do with the temps just off the deck. NAM keeps flow at 950 more ENE while te gFS and others veer it more east. Source region on ENE winds is a lot colder than due E. Clearly track and isallobaric flow have a lot to Do with this. -2 at 950 is a hell of a lot better than -0.5 when you winds are east at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 thanks - i wish it was easy to translate the thoughts into what will actually happen. my inclination is to lean cold...but i hate busting high on numbers. Isnt it better though to bust high than low? I think people appreciate it more in the public if forecasts are high but amounts are lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Gonna go with 10-14. I think we hit double digits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 honestly, while i'm 99.9% sure it rains here...the actual snowfall forecast and impact along the immediate shore might be the hardest. i can seriously talk myself into and out of multiple scenarios. lol. further inland, it's snow...then just a matter of how quickly you mix etc. but i could agree with BOS forecasts for 3", 6", 9"...and even really down to the Canal and the Upper Cape i think. there's a massive bust potential. lose / lose. This is where I'd lean on climo a bit more. It's mid Dec., SST are still relatively warm, albeit for time of year, cooler. You have what should be a progressive system without any blocking. I think 1-3" for Cape/Islands is not an unreasonable call right now. I'm leaning on the colder side of guidance right now. Still think a 3-6"/4-8" is in the cards from the canal up to a PVD/BOS line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 thanks - i wish it was easy to translate the thoughts into what will actually happen. my inclination is to lean cold...but i hate busting high on numbers. I agree. I also think that strong vertical motion may also help. For instance instead of 34F rain, it could be 33F snow for a time as it rips aggregates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Isnt it better though to bust high than low? I think people appreciate it more in the public if forecasts are high but amounts are lower i disagree. with violence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is where I'd lean on climo a bit more. It's mid Dec., SST are still relatively warm, albeit for time of year, cooler. You have what should be a progressive system without any blocking. I think 1-3" for Cape/Islands is not an unreasonable call right now. I'm leaning on the colder side of guidance right now. Still think a 3-6"/4-8" is in the cards from the canal up to a PVD/BOS line. Would SSTs cool the BL with the high to the north or just the mid levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Any idea on how the EURO thermal profile is? I tried looking for some soundings, but I'm at work so I've had to attend to other matters. I like this map very much, much said about Weenie maps but judging by everything I looked at it seems pretty darn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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