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December 14/15 winter storm threat part II


Typhoon Tip

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I don't think anyone NW of the Canal has a chance at straight rain in this, save for perhaps right along the immediate S shore, when the isallobaric wind response to rapid pressure falls, jolts the flow on-shore and there "might" be few moments of SST contamination when that happens... But the high being were it is, and the low moving by underneath, where ever one thinks the CF will make en roads, you're about 10 miles too far NW as a perfunctory correction.  

Well I think the CF is going to be right over my head so I sure hope you're right, lol.

 

Anyways I've thought 4-8" all along and don't see a good reason to change at this point, but I'm tempted to think the higher end of the range verifies given all the discussion by most on here.

 

Tip - I think you'll be in a pretty good spot for this one to be around 10"+ assuming everything goes according to plan and you don't end in a mystery screw hole.

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Prob 8-10"...I would say BOS gets at least 0.75" qpf as snow.

 

I'm going to guess then maybe .5 or so here as frozen? 

 

I like that Euro track further out.

 

Thing is...with the convective issues still maybe obvious...normally we don't see that mitigated until the models initialize for the first time AFTER convection has fired.  So later today or in the morning.  :(

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Well I think the CF is going to be right over my head so I sure hope you're right, lol.

 

Anyways I've thought 4-8" all along and don't see a good reason to change at this point, but I'm tempted to think the higher end of the range verifies given all the discussion by most on here.

 

Tip - I think you'll be in a pretty good spot for this one to be around 10"+ assuming everything goes according to plan and you don't end in a mystery screw hole.

 

yeah I see CF parked just east of 93.. I think you end up with 6"+

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