40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Where do you envision it getting to? 111' ASL 20 mi NNW of Boston Probably...gonna be cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 No guidance has that. Pl or zr sure but not plain rain in the 128 belt. I think that thought is wrong and I'll be prepared to eat crow if otherwise. Its mid dec and if a 850 low goes over bos, i would expect cf to push at Least to middleton-Peabody-stoneham - watertown . If that arctic high is slightly retreating or elongated se off the maritimes i would be ready for rain in wakefield and snow in nw Wilmington. Shouldnt be surprising. There will be a hell of a gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 TK thinking that areas along the rain/snow line (he mentioned route 1 specifically) could see power outages from wind/snow sticking to trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Great discussion among the mets here over the finer points of the soundings. Above my pay grade all I know is it looks warm based on track for my immediate area. been down that road too many times 90% of the time we torch way faster and get pinged and then rained on. Steve, interesting with the meso models. I'm most interested in the Euro because it may be best at not playing with heat release/feedback and also still is good with the cold. The GFS seems too warm to me, but it's been pretty adamant about torching. 1-3" here and I'll be happy. That's right in line with every met and NOAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 No guidance has that. Pl or zr sure but not plain rain in the 128 belt. I think that thought is wrong and I'll be prepared to eat crow if otherwise. Its mid dec and if a 850 low goes over bos, i would expect cf to push at Least to middleton-Peabody-stoneham - watertown . If that arctic high is slightly retreating or elongated se off the maritimes i would be ready for teens in Billerica and 35 + at rt1 ( saugus) Well when I think 128 I see Burlington Bedford Newton ...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Do you have axis to a 850-500 RH type Product? That nails the start and end times. Probably done after 09z for most. The further NE you are the later it ends naturally. I'm just taking stuff off DuPage's site... I am making some graphics later this afternoon for Albany's map discussion so I might have some better graphics later on. Their graphics suggest, however, that that the dry slot should already be moving in around 06z from higher levels to lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Mesomodels are cold FWIW Remember what we learned from systems these compact, intensifying systems like 12/9/05 and the blizz of January 2011...once this close in, go meso models. I like the NAM/RGEM from here on out...I don't mean take the QPF verbatim, neccesarily, but their general synoptic evoloution and such....namely theromo profiles, track, etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well when I think 128 I see Burlington Bedford Newton ...lol That is what it is....s WIlmington, N Woburn, etc...Reaading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Great discussion among the mets here over the finer points of the soundings. Above my pay grade all I know is it looks warm based on track for my immediate area. been down that road too many times 90% of the time we torch way faster and get pinged and then rained on. Steve, interesting with the meso models. I'm most interested in the Euro because it may be best at not playing with heat release/feedback and also still is good with the cold. The GFS seems too warm to me, but it's been pretty adamant about torching. 1-3" here and I'll be happy. That's right in line with every met and NOAA. I just can not buy the GFS today. Blending theses models puts a heck of a thumping. should be wild. LOL what I remembered best about 12/09/05 was staring up at pounding sleet and actually watching this huge snow globe above my head come down in slow motion then the crackling started. I could only hope we get some crazy dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Remember what we learned from systems these compact, intensifying systems like 12/9/05 and the blizz of January 2011...once this close in, go meso models. I like the NAM/RGEM from here on out...I don't mean take the QPF verbatim, neccesarily, but their general synoptic evoloution and such....namely theromo profiles, track, etc.... Yeah and I recall the one you least would want to use is the GFS which is notorious for not being able to handle temp profiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Its mid dec and if a 850 low goes over bos, i would expect cf to push at Least to middleton-Peabody-stoneham - watertown . If that arctic high is slightly retreating or elongated se off the maritimes i would be ready for rain in wakefield and snow in nw Wilmington. Shouldnt be surprising Nice edit from Billerica to nw Wilmington lol You're scared $hitless that I'll be 21 and S+, while you stab yourself with an umbrella lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Sir...... Please Sit in your rocking chair...... we have a story to tell you. A story filled with Goblins, Dragons, and maybe the greatest winter storm of a generation. This. Best. Storm. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Remember what we learned from systems these compact, intensifying systems like 12/9/05 and the blizz of January 2011...once this close in, go meso models. I like the NAM/RGEM from here on out...I don't mean take the QPF verbatim, neccesarily, but their general synoptic evoloution and such....namely theromo profiles, track, etc.... certainly a test because from NAM to Hi res NAM to NMM to MM5 to ARW they are cold and south with 8H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 http://www.wxrisk.com/wp.../uploads/2013/12/1stCALL1.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah and I recall the one you least would want to use is the GFS which is notorious for not being able to handle temp profiles In this situation...yes. I remember Tip was laughed at when he favored the NAM over the EURO in Jan 2011.....nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Sne has to cash in on the front end. Weve Been seeing the dry slot on guidance in the upper levels past day and half. Further n and ne u go, the show stays around longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 We're entering the final phases of the run-up times when the defensive types 'can't believe it', and start digging and sniffing around for any product that shows a reason to knock down expectations and be disappointed. It's all very comical ... and predictable. But I think we risk over-thinking this. The step-back view argues against all these hyper attention to details, and (fwiw) my experience with arctic highs parked N forcing progressive waves underneath, do not become warm solutions. They just don't. One other thing to consider, even if we are talking an elevated warm layer ( some 770mb or some shiz...) if we have intense VV producing heavy fall rates through that layer, that layer has to get pretty hot. It takes time to melt medium sized aggregates falling in huge mass. It is more likely that we'ed end up with snow that bounces around but is still snow (icy in nature). If the fall rates went light, sure, we'd end up with light sleet. But I think with the best v-max track assessment still being SE of PVD, getting such a warm layer NW of that locations is going to be tough to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Someone is going to get ripped with this system. These 12z runs are nuts thus far. I think were in the game for at least 6 inches. Changeover will be KEY. If we can hold on I can see us getting more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I just can not buy the GFS today. Blending theses models puts a heck of a thumping. should be wild. LOL what I remembered best about 12/09/05 was staring up at pounding sleet and actually watching this huge snow globe above my head come down in slow motion then the crackling started. I could only hope we get some crazy dynamics. Dynamic situation with anomalous cold air in place. It will be tonights runs before we have a final solution I think or close to it. The high isn't going to give it up that easily. If we could ever see a shift SE in some of the models even 25-50 miles I think all of you would be fine. Verbatim I think the GFS type solutions will work out on the low side for many in SNE as I think the warmth would be underdone. But that even assumes the GFS is right in the first place. Remember the storm a year or so ago where NCEP stuff refused to go cold despite the EURO? They ended up verifying like 2-4c too warm the entire storm right through the last run and they never figured out why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So once again - I am pointing out that the Government NEEDS to Finance Models soon!! Only 24-48 Hours out and the GFS has me at only 6" and Rain while the NAM has 14"-18". Like this is absurd. Almost every big storm is like this now. Spend 1 Billion on this war and 1 Billion on this war and Hurricane Sandy is Only caught by the EURO, or the GFS was the only one to get the High totals of the Fujiwawa. Could go on to almost every storm. It's unacceptable. But fun to see our geniuses here tread through it and make a good forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 OT but really starting to dump here even with the radar empty. Over 1" now. N Berks must be getting smoked seeing as they actually have some pretty good radar returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 We're entering the final phases of the run-up times when the defensive types 'can't believe it', and start digging and sniffing around for any product that shows a reason to knock down expectations and be disappointed. It's all very comical ... and predictable. But I think we risk over-thinking this. The step-back view argues against all these hyper attention to details, and (fwiw) my experience with arctic highs parked N forcing progressive waves underneath, do not become warm solutions. They just don't. One other thing to consider, even if we are talking an elevated warm layer ( some 770mb or some shiz...) if we have intense VV producing heavy fall rates through that layer, that layer has to get pretty hot. It takes time to melt medium sized aggregates falling in huge mass. It is more likely that we'ed end up with snow that bounces around but is still snow (icy in nature). If the fall rates went light, sure, we'd end up with light sleet. But I think with the best v-max track assessment still being SE of PVD, getting such a warm layer NW of that locations is going to be tough to do. Even for the areas that furnace,can you see them going to sleet/IP rather than rain? I could be wrong, but the setup reminds me of 2/14/07 storm where even areas that changed to sleet were still in the mid 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 KGAY getting a foot. Mark my words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 TTs lurch over 50 across a corridor of SE Ma ...down to CHH in both the GFS/NAM .... this collocates with convective QPF signature rather well. Feel confident that thunderstorms will accompany this, and where that takes place it will make the snowfall output more variable. Best thunder potential will be along the interface between a very elevated warm layer to where that is undercut by developing CCB ... setting up conditional instability up a steep elevated frontal slope -- should be some intense VV along that axis being assisted along by 90+kt mid level giving left entrance/exit evacuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro begins steady lt snow tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Going to need thundersnows, 700 level setting itself up, and the coastal front to deliver in order to see any totals over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Even for the areas that furnace,can you see them going to sleet/IP rather than rain? I could be wrong, but the setup reminds me of 2/14/07 storm where even areas that changed to sleet were still in the mid 20's. I don't think anyone NW of the Canal has a chance at straight rain in this, save for perhaps right along the immediate S shore, when the isallobaric wind response to rapid pressure falls, jolts the flow on-shore and there "might" be few moments of SST contamination when that happens... But the high being were it is, and the low moving by underneath, where ever one thinks the CF will make en roads, you're about 10 miles too far NW as a perfunctory correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro is getting a weird look to the low pressure which again is more indicatI've o convection. It looks south of MVY but is elongated S-N. that would def help lock in more nrly flow near and ESP just NW of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro begins steady lt snow tomorrow morning. This is the real potential win for the coast. If we could pull a few/couple/several inches here....early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro maintains mostly snow pike north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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