phil882 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 We are definitely dryslotting quick, but those VVs should be indicative of big moisture punching pretty far up in the atmosphere. This almost looks like a S-N warm conveyor belt look. I do think most of this is over by dawn, ESP BOS to FIT and points SW. It wouldn't be surprising to see a lot of these areas switch over to sleet / freezing drizzle around this time even as the column remains completely below freezing. VVs are impressive, but if they only exist in the low-levels it doesn't matter. If static stability is strong (as it always is with strong inversions) the might not see enough upward penetration of the vertical circulation to get into the snow growth zone by the latter half of the storm evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So we went from low-QPF high-ratios to high-QPF low-ratios/taint? My how this has evolved haha Ratios will be good initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It wouldn't be surprising to see a lot of these areas switch over to sleet / freezing drizzle around this time even as the column remains completely below freezing. VVs are impressive, but if they only exist in the low-levels it doesn't matter. If static stability is strong (as it always is with strong inversions) you might not see enough upward penetration to get into the snow growth zone by the latter half of the storm evolution. If it is as modeled I would agree with this. We may see one of those super intense bands that flips to a snow sleet waivering mix as some parcels mix enough before finally succumbing to non frozen. Nam was first to lead far NW, maybe it is doing a better job with the cold air. The Gfs should help clarify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If it is as modeled I would agree with this. We may see one of those super intense bands that flips to a snow sleet waivering mix as some parcels mix enough before finally succumbing to non frozen. Nam was first to lead far NW, maybe it is doing a better job with the cold air. The Gfs should help clarify Do you mean Euro? Or did I miss something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Like Haverhill area...maybe down to Andover. SREFs tick west reduced 8" probs a bit, but still an omega bomb. We'll see what the NAM says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah makes sense. I doubt .4" qpf here I would go 6-10" here, leaning lower at Plymouth State but surrounding hills should reach 10+ easily. I'm thinking 0.45-0.55" qpf here while surrounding areas see 0.6 or more. With 20:1 I'm not worried though haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Ratios will be good initially. Yes, and I think that can't be undersold yet... this system will be able to work with a 300-400 hPa deep -10 to -20 C snow growth region early on. That's very impressive and will persists up to 03z before that zone shrinks on down... while isentropic lift dominates early on, frontogenetically enhanced precipitation at this point could really enhance totals until the inversion intensifies beyond this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Can we get some clarification on timing..Is the heavy snow coming like after 10:00pm tomorrow night into the morning? Does it still start snowing morning tomorrow etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Phil I saw a lot of deep lift in the 700-500mb range which is what I meant. Towards the end we certainly could have IP or FZDZ as the more shallow lift takes over and we lose the ice in the prime snow growth layer, but I think the damage is done at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm fairly satisfied with my location, certainly couldn't complain last year. I'd probably say 6-10 here although it could be higher, we'll just have to see if/when the pingers arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GEFS between ack and bm? ~995mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So we went from low-QPF high-ratios to high-QPF low-ratios/taint? My how this has evolved hahaI remember when everyone was calling me a weenie when I asked if there would be any unforeseen problems with the snowgrowth just like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Its amazingly cold for the track it takes...it keeps Ray pretty much all snow despite a track over Messenger. This is getting a very convective look on the hi res models. Just these billows of intense VVs. So naturally when that happens all sorts of weird sh*t goes on. Areas that should be rain are snow, Areas that should have snow have a gravity wave induced toaster bath etc. I'm not saying that will happen...but it's getting that intense look for a time after 3z- 6z. I mentioned last night, and Will this morning that this was trending into a 12/9/05 type of deal...still looks that way. Probably not quite to anomalous, but headed that way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I mentioned last night, and Will this morning that this was trending into a 12/9/05 type of deal...still looks that way. Probably not quite to anomalous, but headed that way.. What was 12/9/05? I lived in Southern Cali at that time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Phil I saw a lot of deep lift in the 700-500mb range which is what I meant. Towards the end we certainly could have IP or FZDZ as the more shallow lift takes over and we lose the ice in the prime snow growth layer, but I think the damage is done at that point. Oh I agree with you. I think the thing I am trying to key on is that it might end earlier than suggested... You can see the main axis of VV on the NAM is north of MA by 9z. The GFS is admittedly more aggressive but even it has the max VV north of the area by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is why we could use Some blocking. Arctic high retreating FTL. Ya im not sold on frozen for the 128 area from 3-6 am thump. Some see this as a lock or NBD. I think 128 flips to rain if 850 goes over bos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Phil I saw a lot of deep lift in the 700-500mb range which is what I meant. Towards the end we certainly could have IP or FZDZ as the more shallow lift takes over and we lose the ice in the prime snow growth layer, but I think the damage is done at that point. Even at 45 hours on the GFS, the column is still impressive...the soundings don't go to sh** until literally the precip is about to shutoff. Of course, that is the GFS...NAM tries to dry out a smidge earlier, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well if the low intensifies a bit more it will pin the CF near 128 or even inside for a time. Where do you envision it getting to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is why we could use Some blocking. Arctic high retreating FTL. Ya im not sold on frozen for the 128 area from 3-6 am thump. Some see this as a lock or NBD. I think 128 flips to rain if 850 goes over bos. No guidance has that. Pl or zr sure but not plain rain in the 128 belt. I think that thought is wrong and I'll be prepared to eat crow if otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What was 12/9/05? I lived in Southern Cali at that time... Sir...... Please Sit in your rocking chair...... we have a story to tell you. A story filled with Goblins, Dragons, and maybe the greatest winter storm of a generation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 there may be quiet the gradient of snowfall with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is getting a very convective look on the hi res models. Just these billows of intense VVs. So naturally when that happens all sorts of weird sh*t goes on. Areas that should be rain are snow, Areas that should have snow have a gravity wave induced toaster bath etc. I'm not saying that will happen...but it's getting that intense look for a time after 3z- 6z. This things began looking thundery to me yesterday for other synoptic reasons ... we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Where do you envision it getting to? 111' ASL 20 mi NNW of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Must we keep throwing out 12/9/05? That had a rediculous bombing low <970 mb with +TSSN not to mention the wind on the Cape in particular. Looks like a solid event at least for anyone N/W fof Boston for now, but lets not get carried away, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Where do you envision it getting to? I think it comes close to you but unless this goes over my fanny, I think a track near the Cape keeps you cold. Part I me thinks it has trouble past 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Must we keep throwing out 12/9/05? That had a rediculous bombing low <970 mb with +TSSN not to mention the wind on the Cape in particular. Looks like a solid event at least for anyone N/W fof Boston for now, but lets not get carried away, Snow amounts for some might be similar, but not the hole in the atmosphere to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Oh I agree with you. I think the thing I am trying to key on is that it might end earlier than suggested... You can see the main axis of VV on the NAM is north of MA by 9z. The GFS is admittedly more aggressive but even it has the max VV north of the area by 12z. Do you have axis to a 850-500 RH type Product? That nails the start and end times. Probably done after 09z for most. The further NE you are the later it ends naturally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Mesomodels are cold FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Even at 45 hours on the GFS, the column is still impressive...the soundings don't go to sh** until literally the precip is about to shutoff. Of course, that is the GFS...NAM tries to dry out a smidge earlier, Honestly the GFS soundings (at least at the resolution that you are given which only picks limited isobaric levels) are total crap... they have little to no reflection of the strong low-level inversion that should be setting up with the strong WAA occurring in the wind profile. Look at the NAM at the same time in contrast. Buyer beware when you look at soundings from different sites... if the vertical resolution is limited, you are not going to pick up on the final scale features. The NAM clearly shows a dry slot trying to move in between 700-500 hPa. The GFS in contrast doesn't show this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Mesomodels are cold FWIW And globals are warmer..Interesting battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.