mattlacroix4 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The point is that you shouldn't be looking for logic in a change of 0.1" of snow. It's basically noise. However, because we are tied to those ranges for the website it flips a category. Your forecast has actually changed very little. I understand. I undoubtedly get over carried away in Nor Easters, so I am sorry. However, I think Gray is lucky to have you. I thoroughly enjoy your forecasts and write ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is why we could use Some blocking. Arctic high retreating FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Interesting map from channel 7...shows the tight gradient in SE mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'll tell you who may have a huge game of naked twister.....OceanSt in PWM. Nothing like 15 on the coast of Maine and 35 just offshore by about 2 miles...lol. Maybe Ekster and Legro can play a nice game of grab azz. Hmm, we're on at the same time Sunday. Naked snow angels in the GYX parking lot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Im not sure on the sleet issues. Mid levels are really trying to fight that off esp with the heavier qpf After we get humped, mid levels eventually cant fight it off and we turn to sleet but then the dry slot punches in....while ne ma and s nh get raped. This is looking beastly for them. But its ok we still have warning snows and coat the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I understand. I undoubtedly get over carried away in Nor Easters, so I am sorry. However, I think Gray is lucky to have you. I thoroughly enjoy your forecasts and write ups. I like to think so too. SREFs starting to hit 6" in 6 hours. We're going to pound just fine during the height of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Interesting map from channel 7...shows the tight gradient in SE mass. anything that gives PVD 6 inches is beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is why we could use Some blocking. Arctic high retreating FTL. Kinda always feared that...transient ones are so timing sensitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Kinda always feared that...transient ones are so timing sensitive. It will be there just long enough. Doubt it will allow this to go anymore NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It's definitely warm, esp just off the deck. But those are tremendous VVs that will help offset it esp in areas that are borderline like NW of you. as models better grasped that southern s/w this one has gone warmer and barring a festivas miracle with limited blocking it may continue. If this mornings progs are the trend I think the changeover will fly back to the 24/95 zone as stiff winds off the water torch the bl as sneaky warm layers aloft ride in faster than modeled most of the time. With these tracks I will be lucky to see an inch or two from the main storm. Saturday may exceed actual storm snows. Great system inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All Wet Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My grandfather died this morning and I was wondering if you guys could pray for him if your into that kind of stuff, if not than that's fine. However its one of those deals where a snowstorm is a bonus regardless of the amounts. I won't stop watching the weather unfold because he wouldn't want me too. 850mb travels right over the Cape, so we mix for a time before the 850s crash southeastward as the comma head develops overhead. Grace and peace to you and your family in your loss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It's definitely warm, esp just off the deck. But those are tremendous VVs that will help offset it esp in areas that are borderline like NW of you. i'm surprised by how much mid-level warmth it's punching N. by 9z...it's essentially flooded all of CT/RI and most of SE MA. i would assume it's not seeing the S-900 layer too well because it's essentially >0C from 800mb to the surface by 09z. i can't see the LL warming like that but does give pause with respect to ptype after ~6z should something like this come to fruition. so much for no bombing lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I like to think so too. SREFs starting to hit 6" in 6 hours. We're going to pound just fine during the height of it. A well timed e-mail to the boss can't hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 They try to fight it off, and succeed for a while..but then the sleet does arrive. It will sleet there. Its ok if you don't get a foot of snow. warning criteria with some sleet in the pack is a pretty good storm. Yeah, I was going to say that there's nothing wrong with 8" of snow and mixing some ice pellets in there. It's early December and I'll take a run of the mill snowfall. Anything more is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Considering that in parts of EMA there looks to be a convective nature to things and even possibly tssn, couldn't rates trump any low level warmth like we've seen in past events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Is the lack of qpf in eastern VT the downsloping showing up?Yeah but it's always overdone due to the coarse resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Sorry for your loss James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 i'm surprised by how much mid-level warmth it's punching N. by 9z...it's essentially flooded all of CT/RI and most of SE MA. i would assume it's not seeing the S-900 layer too well because it's essentially >0C from 800mb to the surface by 09z. i can't see the LL warming like that but does give pause with respect to ptype after ~6z should something like this come to fruition. so much for no bombing lows. I remember a day ago when most of us and many of the noaa offices were talking about weak sauce. This is apparently the storm that breaks the mold of this year. Flooding warmth is a great way to describe it. Something to watch. What's your take from end to you 1-3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Bob Maxon @bobmaxon36m Our latest thinking. As promised. A slight increase for the hills of northern CT. #FirstAlertCT pic.twitter.com/a2vbQpHcIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah but it's always overdone due to the coarse resolution. Yeah makes sense. I doubt .4" qpf here I would go 6-10" here, leaning lower at Plymouth State but surrounding hills should reach 10+ easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well if the low intensifies a bit more it will pin the CF near 128 or even inside for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Bob Maxon @bobmaxon36m Our latest thinking. As promised. A slight increase for the hills of northern CT. #FirstAlertCT pic.twitter.com/a2vbQpHcIT Bye bye Christmas decorations, nice seeing you LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 While yes the frontogenecially forced ageostrophic lift will be impressive... I am worried that snowfall ratios will also plummet during the 6-12z timeframe over MA (even if the entire column remains below freezing). The culprit appears to be the mid-levels becoming sub-saturated in the snow-growth region, which might limit dendritic growth of snow crystals during the greatest precipitation rates. Something to watch as the event creeps closer, as the mesoscale models should have a better handle on where the best mid-level banding sets up (and thus better snow efficiency). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS snow numbers are still quite robust. 8+1 for BOS. When the mid level warmth gets in, it seems a lot of lift is gone and qpf shuts down before cf swings back se on the way out. Gonna be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So we went from low-QPF high-ratios to high-QPF low-ratios/taint? My how this has evolved haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 We are definitely dryslotting quick, but those VVs should be indicative of big moisture punching pretty far up in the atmosphere. This almost looks like a S-N warm conveyor belt look. I do think most of this is over by dawn, ESP BOS to FIT and points SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I really am unsure for my hood. Hoping NAM thermal profile is closer to correct even if storm tracks near CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 We are definitely dryslotting quick, but those VVs should be indicative of big moisture punching pretty far up in the atmosphere. This almost looks like a S-N warm conveyor belt look. I do think most of this is over by dawn, ESP BOS to FIT and points SW. When does it start? Has that sped up at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What do you think Will....8-12 for our hood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I really am unsure for my hood. Hoping NAM thermal profile is closer to correct even if storm tracks near CC. NCEP says it may be, or may not be. They should start posting here. ================================================== 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ================================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. ================================================== ...STORM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S... PREFERENCE: ANY 12Z GFS OR 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE IN LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT. THERE ARE NO OUTLIERS...AND THE 12Z NAM COULD CERTAINLY BE APPLIED. THE NAM ESCAPED OUR PREFERENCE BECAUSE OF SOME DIFFERENCES AT A CRITICAL TIME...15/12Z WHEN THE COASTAL PORTION OF THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF BOSTON MA. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE NAM IS JUST SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN THE MULTI MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...BUT THIS MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO MORE STRONGLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND COLDER THERMAL PROFILES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. THIS IDEA IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE AND SHOULD NOT BE IGNORED...BUT FOR OUR PREFERENCE WE SIDE WITH THE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY SEEN IN THE LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE. THE UKMET IS NOT INCLUDED BECAUSE IT HAS TENDED TO TAKE THE SURFACE LOW SLIGHTLY NORTH OF CONSENSUS WITH WARMER THERMAL PROFILES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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