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December 14/15 winter storm threat part II


Typhoon Tip

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How does this make any sense? I am not seeing only 8 inches of snow. Last map was much better. I don't understand them sometimes...

 

Ranges strike again.

 

There are probably a lot of near 10" totals near the coast. So I change of 0.1" snow from 9.9" to 10.0" is going to make your category change from 8-10 to 10-14. I think we just need to relax and take a step back from exact totals right now. Plenty of snow coming.

 

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The midday runs so far give credence of a large area of 12+ from SNH down thru CT and N of NYC to NW NJ

 

 

Thats overdoing it. There's also going to be sleet issue S of the pike for sure...still a lot of snow on the front end, but 12+ from S NH to NJ is not really supported by anything.

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If the 12Z GFS is to be believed, the exact timing of the changeover to IP will have a huge impact on snowfall amounts around here.  Obviously, this is always true to some extent, but it looks like snow would be falling at a several inches an hour rate right at the time that that the midlevels warm above freezing, so even increments of 15 minutes or so would have an impact.

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Ranges strike again.

 

There are probably a lot of near 10" totals near the coast. So I change of 0.1" snow from 9.9" to 10.0" is going to make your category change from 8-10 to 10-14. I think we just need to relax and take a step back from exact totals right now. Plenty of snow coming.

 

 

I tried.......... :)

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Im not sure on the sleet issues. Mid levels are really trying to fight that off esp with the heavier qpf

 

They try to fight it off, and succeed for a while..but then the sleet does arrive. It will sleet there. Its ok if you don't get a foot of snow. warning criteria with some sleet in the pack is a pretty good storm.

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Ranges strike again.

 

There are probably a lot of near 10" totals near the coast. So I change of 0.1" snow from 9.9" to 10.0" is going to make your category change from 8-10 to 10-14. I think we just need to relax and take a step back from exact totals right now. Plenty of snow coming.

 

I was just trying to find the logic in it. I am not using that map as the bible of outcome.

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I was just trying to find the logic in it. I am not using that map as the bible of outcome.

 

The point is that you shouldn't be looking for logic in a change of 0.1" of snow. It's basically noise. However, because we are tied to those ranges for the website it flips a category. Your forecast has actually changed very little.

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My grandfather died this morning and I was wondering if you guys could pray for him if your into that kind of stuff, if not than that's fine.  However its one of those deals where a snowstorm is a bonus regardless of the amounts.  I won't stop watching the weather unfold because he wouldn't want me too.  850mb travels right over the Cape, so we mix for a time before the 850s crash southeastward as the comma head develops overhead.

 

I'm very sorry for your loss.  Thoughts and prayers are with you.

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