CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:44 PM, Damage In Tolland said: That would mean siding with me No, it means that for my area much of the precip will fall as snow before changeover. You will pelt I think at least briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 When I was in Southern New England I always felt very bullish about these storms in the Boston area. But when all was said and done, usually the amount of mixing on a close by track (inside BM like this one) was a function of two factors: 1) the strength/polar of high pressure and 2) the time of the year. The cold arctic high is definitely there, but usually a mid-December storm meant a lot of mixing and changeover whereas this track in February would be mainly/all snow, due to ocean/harbor temp being closer to freezing... It will be interesting to see which wins out this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:34 PM, moneypitmike said: Boy the 18z NAM sure is in and out quickly. I'm way too far behind to catch up--is it going to snow here or what? Also, what's the deal on ratios? I guess these should be pretty run-of-the-mill given the forecasted snowfall and modeled qpf. MPM here is your sounding at 36 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If this storm has like 0.1" per hour precip rates, that won't cut it here after midnight. I need the VVs. Luckily, I think it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 5:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is what it is....s WIlmington, N Woburn, etc...Reaading... Truly amazing how often Pickles and I are RN/ZR/IP and Ray is ripping SN. Newcomers may think it's funny when mets use the highway (128/495) as a rain/snow line but that's really what it ends up being. The Tippy in me would wonder if ancestors built the road based on where the rain/snow line sets up so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Phil, 3/1/2005 convective blob? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:44 PM, Cold Miser said: Just heard Bob Maxon throw out the snow to sleet and rain set up for the entire state of ct. with the high end being 8". He did seem to think the totals would be on the high end. YOU can't ignore today's best mix. It's coming. We are likely to have an hour or 2 of sleet at the tail end..But that's it. You won't ever get above 26-27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So now I hate the NAM too. Ugh. 850 and 10M 0C line goes above me by just a few miles for most of it. Now I DO need a 12/16/07 situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is the best and probably most realistic map (for CT) that I've seen Joe Furey @StormFurey1m Updated snowfall projections as of 4 PM. We'll keep you updated on Fox CT through the duration of this storm. pic.twitter.com/ATzjUomc05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:42 PM, SnowlieSnowstormson said: Guys I made a terrible bet at work that BDL would total 10" or more this storm. Can someone level with me the chances of this occurring. Actually, with good ratios and minimal to no taint, I think 10" at BDL is a good forecast, give or take a couple. 8-12 would be my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:43 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Thru their cards all in on a NAM solution. Something like that haha. Euro shows something similar I thought though?Just another possibility. I think we are really in the wild card area to tell you the truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:46 PM, CoastalWx said: Phil, 3/1/2005 convective blob? LOL. god i wish. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:44 PM, Cold Miser said: Just heard Bob Maxon throw out the snow to sleet and rain set up for the entire state of ct. with the high end being 8". He did seem to think the totals would be on the high end. YOU can't ignore today's best mix. It's coming. Thought it was a bad move to change the map late this morning. Sometimes when you try to keep up with the noise in forecast cycles you end up shooting yourself in the foot when your original idea was the right one all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I know this doesn't effect 98% of you, but wondering of I can grab a sneaky 2-3" of OES before th real deal starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:43 PM, CoastalWx said: I really do want to side cold. Ugh. It'll be cold here, Scott. Progged high tomorrow is 15*, low tomorrow night 13*, high on Sunday "mid-20's". You're welcome to visit, but we won't have your qpf. On 12/13/2013 at 8:46 PM, SnowMan said: MPM here is your sounding at 36 hours.... Thanks--looks purty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:53 PM, CoastalWx said: I know this doesn't effect 98% of you, but wondering of I can grab a sneaky 2-3" of OES before th real deal starts. Was Jerry right in having accumulating snow starting regionwide in the morning on Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The TV mets are all over the place for the area. Channel 5 has 3-6, Channel 4 has 4-8 and channel 7 has me on the line of 3-6 & 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:46 PM, TheBudMan said: Truly amazing how often Pickles and I are RN/ZR/IP and Ray is ripping SN. Newcomers may think it's funny when mets use the highway (128/495) as a rain/snow line but that's really what it ends up being. The Tippy in me would wonder if ancestors built the road based on where the rain/snow line sets up so often. Not for that purpose of course but that's exactly the result of design.. They're built around topography. Why blast through a hill side when you can run the road in front of thill side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:21 PM, coldfront said: Probably Chris did it just for him so he can feel better about his 10"................lol He has been upgraded to 10.6" now from 9.9" Congrats to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 An under the radar hazard about this system is that any S-E zones that do get liquid into the event are going to flash freeze pretty dramatically as this thing pulls away, the winds back and pure arctic blue cuts through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:49 PM, leesun said: Actually, with good ratios and minimal to no taint, I think 10" at BDL is a good forecast, give or take a couple. 8-12 would be my forecast. i would take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:25 PM, coldfront said: I guess you never read Chris explanation from this am about accumulation ranges We have no point forecast on land with more than 14.5" of snow, so we can put those 18" totals to rest now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:53 PM, CoastalWx said: I know this doesn't effect 98% of you, but wondering of I can grab a sneaky 2-3" of OES before th real deal starts. i'm kind of thinking the same...i don't know about 2-3 here but thinking 1" is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:53 PM, CoastalWx said: I know this doesn't effect 98% of you, but wondering of I can grab a sneaky 2-3" of OES before th real deal starts. Here you go, Scott. Of course, I kind of weenied out to see I had picked up a couple inches today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:58 PM, Typhoon Tip said: An under the radar hazard about this system is that any S-E zones that do get liquid into the event are going to flash freeze pretty dramatically as this thing pulls away, the winds back and pure arctic blue cuts through... ha! was thinking about this a few minutes ago. definitely has flash freeze written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:56 PM, CarverWX said: The TV mets are all over the place for the area. Channel 5 has 3-6, Channel 4 has 4-8 and channel 7 has me on the line of 3-6 & 1-3 I'm north and west of you so I border on 8-12 on channel 4, but you get the idea. Again this is always the toughest area. Id say 3 is a safe bet. 8 or 9 is probably best case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:42 PM, SnowlieSnowstormson said: Guys I made a terrible bet at work that BDL would total 10" or more this storm. Can someone level with me the chances of this occurring. lol hopefully as the season moves along, you'll have more opportunities to make the money you lose back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 8:53 PM, CoastalWx said: I know this doesn't effect 98% of you, but wondering of I can grab a sneaky 2-3" of OES before th real deal starts. Nobody wants to hear about picnic tables at 4000 feet...oh wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Albany's warning: HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN 24 HOURS...WITH UP TO 14 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah but if you call for 2-4 and folks get 8-10 it becomes a problem. Other way does not That's definitely not the way it works. If you forecast 2-4 and get 8-10, plows are on the road anyway. If you forecast 3-6 and get 1 you waste lots of money. And as Will stated, the next storm they don't listen to you and the 8-10 goes unplowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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