Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:11 PM, SnowMan said: Would SSTs cool the BL with the high to the north or just the mid levels? BL. And in this case they will warm the BL, not cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:08 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Isnt it better though to bust high than low? I think people appreciate it more in the public if forecasts are high but amounts are lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:14 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: BL. Oh because the wind is coming of the water rather than the north where the high is located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:12 PM, Ginxy said: I like this map very much, much said about Weenie maps but judging by everything I looked at it seems pretty darn close. Seems pretty fair, it's one of those storms where a few miles will make all the difference. The NAM would be ideal, but it's hard to put any trust into that POS. Got to love living on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:16 PM, SnowMan said: Oh because the wind is coming of the water rather than the north where the high is located? Check my edit. With the location/position of the high, winds will be almost due E as the system is S of LI. Winds won't turn NE until the low is E of CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:12 PM, Ginxy said: I like this map very much, much said about Weenie maps but judging by everything I looked at it seems pretty darn close. I actually do not hate that map all that much for this system...I'd probably slice back a bit down in RI/SE MA and prob back the amounts away from the south coast of CT a bit too...but otherwise not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:08 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Isnt it better though to bust high than low? I think people appreciate it more in the public if forecasts are high but amounts are lower You ever heard of the story about the boy who cried wolf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yes let's all forecast amounts too high. Let me try doing that and cause mass chaos on the busiest travel time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:22 PM, CoastalWx said: Yes let's all forecast amounts too high. Let me try doing that and cause mass chaos on the busiest travel time of the year. Yeah the DOT guys loved it when I forecasted 6-10 on 2/10/10 and all they needed was a few sanders/salters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Going with 5-9 here in Cumberland. Think it's a pretty good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'd go with 6-8" of snow for a good chunk of the state before turning to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:20 PM, ORH_wxman said: I actually do not hate that map all that much for this system...I'd probably slice back a bit down in RI/SE MA and prob back the amounts away from the south coast of CT a bit too...but otherwise not bad. Yea I agree just based on the Euro seems pretty solid. I do think with a low that far south the Euro seems a little warm in the BL. That elongation east is something we see that locks in the colder air.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:22 PM, CoastalWx said: Yes let's all forecast amounts too high. Let me try doing that and cause mass chaos on the busiest travel time of the year. On 12/13/2013 at 7:23 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the DOT guys loved it when I forecasted 6-10 on 2/10/10 and all they needed was a few sanders/salters. Mikey Bloomberg and Sandy worked out well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:21 PM, powderfreak said: You ever heard of the story about the boy who cried wolf?Yeah but if you call for 2-4 and folks get 8-10 it becomes a problem. Other way does not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:12 PM, Ginxy said: I like this map very much, much said about Weenie maps but judging by everything I looked at it seems pretty darn close. Personally, I think that's probably the most accurate snow map that's been posted. It's really a toss up, how long can you go before taint in interior southeast ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So you're telling me there's a chance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah but if you call for 2-4 and folks get 8-10 it becomes a problem. Other way does not Except for all the ppl pissed off because they changed their plans based on a forecast that was too high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah but if you call for 2-4 and folks get 8-10 it becomes a problem. Other way does not You're more likely to bust on the high side than the low side, so if you're in the business of being accurate you're probably better off undercutting in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:35 PM, SnowMan said: So you're telling me there's a chance.... Lol, let's hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah but if you call for 2-4 and folks get 8-10 it becomes a problem. Other way does not it's a conversation for another time/thread - but i don't see it that way. going high on numbers sets things in motion from a planning/preparation standpoint...plenty of things that can't be corrected/stopped/fixed once they are done. many of those things have costs. the other way around...to me, is more like adjusting on the fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:36 PM, SnowMan said: Except for all the ppl pissed off because they changed their plans based on a forecast that was too high...Or the folks that decided to go to work based on a nuisance event forecast and instead ended up stranded on the highways in 12+ and couldn't get home to pick up kids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:36 PM, snowman21 said: You're more likely to bust on the high side than the low side, so if you're in the business of being accurate you're probably better off undercutting in the long run. Not only that, if you bust high a majority of the time, then the idea of "warning the public" is a moot point because nobody is going top believe your "warnings". They will just think "oh that guy is predicting a big storm again...usually doesn't happen as bad as he says it will" and go on their merry way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:35 PM, SnowMan said: So you're telling me there's a chance.... What a strange map. Do they do this for other increments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:35 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Personally, I think that's probably the most accurate snow map that's been posted. It's really a toss up, how long can you go before taint in interior southeast ma. I'm thinking 2-4am Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:39 PM, Cold Miser said: What a strange map. Do they do this for other increments? They do it for lower amounts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:39 PM, Cold Miser said: What a strange map. Do they do this for other increments? Gotta get with the times. They've been doing that for the past couple years. All the %'s are on the right. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Sorry I know OT... If you can't decide between 1-2 or 2-4... wouldn't the best forecast be 1-4" even if the range is outside the standard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think if someone calls for a forecast of 8-10, and it verifies at 16 when all said and done then that kind of bust is only good for snow lovers who are not dependent on public services or other functions where a doubled snow depth ended up causing more headache than originally planned for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:12 PM, Ginxy said: I like this map very much, much said about Weenie maps but judging by everything I looked at it seems pretty darn close. I would probably kncok that up a couple of inched as the ratios should be quite a bit better than 10:1, at least early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 7:39 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm thinking 2-4am Sunday. Seems like a very good call. And by that time I think we've picked up at least 6 inches. Maybe a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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