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December 14/15 winter storm threat part II

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

Thinking 8-10" for my area including Great Barrington, Pittsfield, and North Adams. The weenie belt towns east of me have a good shot at getting 12"+ totals from this. The shadow zone on the west slope of the Taconics along the NY-22 corridor will probably be 4-7", but Hoosick Falls may only get 3". That town is absolutely brutal for downsloping in these setups. Albany metro is probably 8-10", east slopes of the Catskills looks to do well too with maybe some 10"+ totals.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2013 at 6:25 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

If the low winds up too tight do we start to see qpf cut back a bit out this way?

Had to ask since MPM isn't around.

I think its been pretty steady that this isnt a wound up low with alot of subsidence. Flow is too fast for it and the high is too strong. Qpf is overrated anyway, you will be fine.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

12z BTV has a  All Snow Job for S. shore and Boston NE'ward with 1.10 -1.25 so QPF

 

Sets up CF pretty well West around 495 w/ 10's west of it and low 30's east of it....Snow on both sides.....

 

That would set highest totals around 495 up thru Merrimack valley/SNH

 

has track ENE from Souther 1/3 of  NJ to just a hair SE of ACK

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2013 at 6:27 PM, Tropopause_Fold said:

this is an interesting one. lot of different elements to consider. model data...history of these types of set-ups...climo of SNE...they all argue for slightly different outcomes. also have to be confident in which factor you think is most important this go around etc. 

Man, it sure is. From SE mass to N shore/128 it will be a battlefield.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2013 at 6:35 PM, cpick79 said:

12z BTV has a All Snow Job for S. shore and Boston NE'ward with 1.10 -1.25 so QPF

Sets up CF pretty well West around 495 w/ 10's west of it and low 30's east of it....Snow on both sides.....

That would set highest totals around 495 up thru Merrimack valley/SNH

has track ENE from Souther 1/3 of NJ to just a hair SE of ACK

Again, I maintain I think I'll be really close to the cf, would love to stay all snow here, but again I'm skeptical

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2013 at 6:44 PM, cpick79 said:

interestingly enough there is more precip crawling NE at end of sunday period on Btv Wrf about 6hrs after storm main precip shield "scoots by in am" wth is that?

That is the additional snow that Kevin said will happen, while others have said it will be over by early Sunday.

 

...Interesting indeed.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2013 at 6:46 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Thats the additional snow we may get with the ULL that we've been discussing during the day on Sunday

I actually think it may be an error on the model ...at the end of the run it looks like it sort of just replays a prior 12 hour period as it has precip moving up from SW

 

Edit ya it appears to be an error I can't find it on the 12z btv wrf anymore

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

the big question for places from around the immediate N shore down to BOS, PYM, Cape etc is what kind of air mass we are advecting in on E winds tomorrow and tomorrow night in the low levels. i kind of go back and forth on this.

 

it's a very cold, dry air mass to start. that's a given. and that air mass departs eastward...so an east wind is OK for a time...in fact, it's a bit of bonus initially. and we could even hang NE for a while.

 

but eventually, you have to think about climo and weigh that in. how long does it take for marine taint to overcome that "potential cold" of the LL air mass?  obviously the further east that air mass gets, the more the SBL is going to be warmed...basically transitioning from a cP airmass to a mP airmass.

 

to me, i don't personally see it as much of a sleet deal on the shore (short-lived) but more of an eventual transition to rain as the coastal front really gets established and we get the gradual climb into the 30s (40s down this way).  

 

i think there's arguments to be made for 6-8" of snow right to the coast...even to the canal perhaps...but also arguments to be made for far less.  that is, show me 996 over MVY and i'll show you rain to BOS...but then again...give me big time arctic air to start and you'll see model guidance warming everything too rapidly and you'll get surprises in there too...ala 07/08 type deals where what looks like 2" verifies as 7".  

 

further west, it's a matter of battling the mid-level warming. history suggests that comes a bit quicker than expected. so N of the Pike favored obviously.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2013 at 6:52 PM, cpick79 said:

I actually think it may be an error on the model ...at the end of the run it looks like it sort of just replays a prior 12 hour period as it has precip moving up from SW in same fashion as it did Sat late nite.

That model is prone to some funky things late in its run even though it's only a 60 hour model.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2013 at 6:54 PM, Tropopause_Fold said:

the big question for places from around the immediate N shore down to BOS, PYM, Cape etc is what kind of air mass we are advecting in on E winds tomorrow and tomorrow night in the low levels. i kind of go back and forth on this.

it's a very cold, dry air mass to start. that's a given. and that air mass departs eastward...so an east wind is OK for a time...in fact, it's a bit of bonus initially. and we could even hang NE for a while.

but eventually, you have to think about climo and weigh that in. how long does it take for marine taint to overcome that "potential cold" of the LL air mass? obviously the further east that air mass gets, the more the SBL is going to be warmed...basically transitioning from a cP airmass to a mP airmass.

to me, i don't personally see it as much of a sleet deal on the shore (short-lived) but more of an eventual transition to rain as the coastal front really gets established and we get the gradual climb into the 30s (40s down this way).

i think there's arguments to be made for 6-8" of snow right to the coast...even to the canal perhaps...but also arguments to be made for far less. that is, show me 996 over MVY and i'll show you rain to BOS...but then again...give me big time arctic air to start and you'll see model guidance warming everything too rapidly and you'll get surprises in there too...ala 07/08 type deals where what looks like 2" verifies as 7".

further west, it's a matter of battling the mid-level warming. history suggests that comes a bit quicker than expected. so N of the Pike favored obviously.

You knocked it out of the park with this post Phil.

Agree in every aspect.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2013 at 6:56 PM, Winston Wolf said:

You knocked it out of the park with this post Phil.

Agree in every aspect.

honestly, while i'm 99.9% sure it rains here...the actual snowfall forecast and impact along the immediate shore might be the hardest. i can seriously talk myself into and out of multiple scenarios. lol. 

 

further inland, it's snow...then just a matter of how quickly you mix etc. but i could agree with BOS forecasts for 3", 6", 9"...and even really down to the Canal and the Upper Cape i think. there's a massive bust potential. lose / lose. :lol:

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2013 at 7:03 PM, Tropopause_Fold said:

honestly, while i'm 99.9% sure it rains here...the actual snowfall forecast and impact along the immediate shore might be the hardest. i can seriously talk myself into and out of multiple scenarios. lol.

further inland, it's snow...then just a matter of how quickly you mix etc. but i could agree with BOS forecasts for 3", 6", 9"...and even really down to the Canal and the Upper Cape i think. there's a massive bust potential. lose / lose. :lol:

A lot of it has to do with the temps just off the deck. NAM keeps flow at 950 more ENE while te gFS and others veer it more east. Source region on ENE winds is a lot colder than due E. Clearly track and isallobaric flow have a lot to

Do with this. -2 at 950 is a hell of a lot better than -0.5 when you winds are east at the surface.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2013 at 7:06 PM, Tropopause_Fold said:

thanks - i wish it was easy to translate the thoughts into what will actually happen.

my inclination is to lean cold...but i hate busting high on numbers.

Isnt it better though to bust high than low? I think people appreciate it more in the public if forecasts are high but amounts are lower
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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2013 at 7:03 PM, Tropopause_Fold said:

honestly, while i'm 99.9% sure it rains here...the actual snowfall forecast and impact along the immediate shore might be the hardest. i can seriously talk myself into and out of multiple scenarios. lol. 

 

further inland, it's snow...then just a matter of how quickly you mix etc. but i could agree with BOS forecasts for 3", 6", 9"...and even really down to the Canal and the Upper Cape i think. there's a massive bust potential. lose / lose. :lol:

 

This is where I'd lean on climo a bit more.  It's mid Dec., SST are still relatively warm, albeit for time of year, cooler.  You have what should be a progressive system without any blocking.  I think 1-3" for Cape/Islands is not an unreasonable call right now.  I'm leaning on the colder side of guidance right now.  Still think a 3-6"/4-8" is in the cards from the canal up to a PVD/BOS line.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2013 at 7:06 PM, Tropopause_Fold said:

thanks - i wish it was easy to translate the thoughts into what will actually happen.

my inclination is to lean cold...but i hate busting high on numbers.

I agree. I also think that strong vertical motion may also help. For instance instead of 34F rain, it could be 33F snow for a time as it rips aggregates.
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SnowMan

SnowMan

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2013 at 7:09 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

This is where I'd lean on climo a bit more.  It's mid Dec., SST are still relatively warm, albeit for time of year, cooler.  You have what should be a progressive system without any blocking.  I think 1-3" for Cape/Islands is not an unreasonable call right now.  I'm leaning on the colder side of guidance right now.  Still think a 3-6"/4-8" is in the cards from the canal up to a PVD/BOS line.

Would SSTs cool the BL with the high to the north or just the mid levels?

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