Storm At Sea Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That's the overt reason, but the covert reason is much more interesting. Although we average x temperate or x snowfall, we clearly have distinct episodes of true winter jn these parts...ie highs below freezing and snow cover with some sustainability. The covert reasons, ie distinct patterns of winter storm tracks, is much more applicable to our board. When the average high temperature is several degrees above freezing even during the coldest month of the year and at least 75% of the wintertime precipitation budget is liquid in an average year, such a result is more or less to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That's the overt reason, but the covert reason is much more interesting. Although we average x temperate or x snowfall, we clearly have distinct episodes of true winter jn these parts...ie highs below freezing and snow cover with some sustainability. The covert reasons, ie distinct patterns of winter storm tracks, is much more applicable to our board. The idea that there is some surreptitious reason as to why snow fails to fall atop snow in central New Jersey is most assuredly debatable; though that is something I have no time for now as I have to get ready to go to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Upton going with 8.2" here according to the detailed forecast Very surprised given the crappy/warm trend over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Just a programming note, since I don't put much stock into these runs, but the 06z 4km NAM shows the potential for this to essentially be a thump-snow west of the city. Heavy snow ends as a period of sleet or ice but precipitation after that is only light. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_6z/cloop.html John , that has to be run off the 0z NAM right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Just a programming note, since I don't put much stock into these runs, but the 06z 4km NAM shows the potential for this to essentially be a thump-snow west of the city. Heavy snow ends as a period of sleet or ice but precipitation after that is only light. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_6z/cloop.html John , that has to be run off the 0z NAM right ? Nope, that's the 06z high resolution (4km) run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nope, that's the 06z high resolution (4km) run. I see that . but the correlating snow map prints out a ft of snow at 10 to 1 from Monmouth County through the Nassau Suffolk border - kinda matched up with the 0z run , the 6z run , was warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Difference between Bergen County and Manhattan forecast is amazing. Watch for 4-8 here and across the river nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 I see that . but the correlating snow map prints out a ft of snow at 10 to 1 from Monmouth County through the Nassau Suffolk border - kinda matched up with the 0z run , the 6z run , was warmer The 4km NAM is different from the 12km NAM which everyone looks at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Difference between Bergen County and Manhattan forecast is amazing. Watch for 4-8 here and across the river nothing. Upton's snow map has 4-6 for Manhattan with the 6-8 border running just west of the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 SREF mean plumes were 5.5" at EWR...but several members leaning slightly higher towards 6-7" and a couple over 10. Interested to see trends on 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 SREF mean plumes were 5.5" at EWR...but several members leaning slightly higher towards 6-7" and a couple over 10. Interested to see trends on 09z. I really like the forecast you had on ur blog! Accumulations look supported by the models and layed out perfectly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 00z euro was a solid front end thump. Had 4 in ttn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jggearhead Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Whats the link to earthlights blog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Whats the link to earthlights blog?it's on the first post of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The 6z GFS Bufkit: JFK-ISP-OKX snow to sleet by 7pm Sat, than rain by 10pm Sat. Around 2" of snow. LGA-EWR snow to rain by 10pm Sat. Around 4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Whats the link to earthlights blog? First post on page 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Whats the link to earthlights blog? It's in my signature, but we're working on an update now. Those products are from yesterday. Anyway I am interested to see what the NAM tries to do at 12z .. and the higher resolution products now that we are closer in. There is some truth to the idea that those models have a tendency to handle these gradients and air masses better. But I may be inclined to blend them with the ECMWF..leaning 60/40 or 70/30 towards the ECM products at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The Euro has a solid 2-4 eastern side NYC/Nassau. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=641928142520653&set=a.114519721928167.5959.106434319403374&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'd say 2-4 changing to a mix then to rain is a good call for the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 3z SREF definiately colder and further south. Not by much, but it does get more folks into the game especially for places like Middlesex County, NJ. Edit: SREF's are so much colder that they pretty much bring almost no rain into the picture for the current WSW in NJ. Pretty amazed to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 3z SREF definiately colder and further south. Not by much, but it does get more folks into the game especially for places like Middlesex County, NJ. Edit: SREF's are so much colder that they pretty much bring almost no rain into the picture for the current WSW in NJ. Pretty amazed to see that. You mean 9z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 3z SREF definiately colder and further south. Not by much, but it does get more folks into the game especially for places like Middlesex County, NJ. Edit: SREF's are so much colder that they pretty much bring almost no rain into the picture for the current WSW in NJ. Pretty amazed to see that. I'm pretty confident on 3-5 for our county. 2-3 by Driscoll bridge and 4-5 northern part of county. You see a big diff from south to north on these events in our county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 You mean 9z? I don't see 9z out yet. maybe he access to maps we don't have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Was really hoping to see the warm trend stop on the models last night, guess that's not to be. I'm sticking with my call for now of up to 3" along the immediate shores. Maybe Central Park can luck out with 4 or 5". The warm surge should be enough to eventually wash all snow away from the city south/east. The Euro gets us well into the 40s on the SE wind and it sounds plausible to me. The stronger, wrapped up storm does mean more snow well inland, maybe 8-10" once west of I-287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I don't see 9z out yet. maybe he access to maps we don't have. They are out. I just am not at a place to see them right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Was really hoping to see the warm trend stop on the models last night, guess that's not to be. I'm sticking with my call for now of up to 3" along the immediate shores. Maybe Central Park can luck out with 4 or 5". The warm surge should be enough to eventually wash all snow away from the city south/east. The Euro gets us well into the 40s on the SE wind and it sounds plausible to me. The stronger, wrapped up storm does mean more snow well inland, maybe 8-10" once west of I-287. You may have spoke too soon lol. Hearing rumors that 9z Serfs are colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Was really hoping to see the warm trend stop on the models last night, guess that's not to be. I'm sticking with my call for now of up to 3" along the immediate shores. Maybe Central Park can luck out with 4 or 5". The warm surge should be enough to eventually wash all snow away from the city south/east. The Euro gets us well into the 40s on the SE wind and it sounds plausible to me. The stronger, wrapped up storm does mean more snow well inland, maybe 8-10" once west of I-287. I will be happy with a solid 2-4 here in Nassau with the AO spiking to around +4. It's probably the best that we can do with all the blocking on the Pacific side. Just too easy for the primary and 850 low to cut to the Lakes with such a bad look over the NATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/frames_old.php?run=2013121309out to 9hrs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 You may have spoke too soon lol. Hearing rumors that 9z Serfs are colder. They may yet trend colder, but the models at 0z were pretty adamant about the tucked in and warm solution. It means a heavier front end for sure, but for the coast it all gets washed away. Hopefully it can at least be more progressive so the rain doesn't last long and the cold air comes back in fast. At this point given that trend I have to think it's onto something at least. It looks also like the closing off 850mb low was a NAM fantasy, which is unsurprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 They may yet trend colder, but the models at 0z were pretty adamant about the tucked in and warm solution. It means a heavier front end for sure, but for the coast it all gets washed away. Hopefully it can at least be more progressive so the rain doesn't last long and the cold air comes back in fast. At this point given that trend I have to think it's onto something at least. It looks also like the closing off 850mb low was a NAM fantasy, which is unsurprising. Agreed....but will be nice to see front end dump! (although I'm in state College so 6-10in looking good for me ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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