IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The ECMWF has low end Warning Criteria snowfall for Southern Westchester County and NNJ/NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The ECMWF has low end Warning Criteria snowfall for Southern Westchester County and NNJ/NE NJ. No way... I hope you are not basing it off those ridiculous wxbell snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The ECMWF has low end Warning Criteria snowfall for Southern Westchester County and NNJ/NE NJ. I disagree..looks like an advisory snow at best on the Euro for those areas unless ur up in far NWNJ...and even there that's pushing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 No way... I hope you are not basing it off those ridiculous wxbell snow maps Then why are we allowing those maps to be posted? There should really be an immediate ban on those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Then why are we allowing those maps to be posted? There should really be an immediate ban on those maps. I agree.. They are always grossly overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Then why are we allowing those maps to be posted? There should really be an immediate ban on those maps. They are not suppose to be posted because i got warned the other day for posting them... As far as there accuracy ..this last event on Tuesday they did just fine..Were showing 1-3 for EC PA and we had 2.4 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It is DARN cold out there right now (esp. up here in NW NJ). Feels like an airmass that does not want to leave soon or easily. I can see the colder solutions winning. What IS really encouraging is how much wetter the models are becoming (NAM may be crazy, but GFS was wetter as well). Rooting for all of us Surface cold means nothing, I have seen freezing rain at 18F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 No way... I hope you are not basing it off those ridiculous wxbell snow maps agree, the Wxbell snow maps do always seem to be overdone, I am sure we just pissed off JB again was this comment. Poor guy operates on a hair trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 They are not suppose to be posted because i got warned the other day for posting them... As far as there accuracy ..this last event on Tuesday they did just fine..Were showing 1-3 for EC PA and we had 2.4 inches... When conditions are not borderline for snow, snow maps are fine...but in this particular setup, borderline locations will have their totals pretty inflated with the Euro weatherbell snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 When conditions are not borderline for snow, snow maps are fine...but in this particular setup, borderline locations will have their totals pretty inflated with the Euro weatherbell snow maps. I was told by Sickman not to post any ECM Snow maps or any ECM product from WXBELL because they have a fit when we post them (and they are watching etc) .. That is what I was referring to .. As far as there accuracy just stating that it did really well with Tuesdays event... As far as the present map and system is concerned I think for inland locations it is pretty spot on as temperatures would support it as well as thicknesses... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 6z GFS is almost identical to the 18z GFS from yesterday in regards to the hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 06z NAM is slightly warmer than 0z 06z GFS is slightly colder than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 06Z GFS: 3-5" of snow for NYC 4-7" of Snow for NE NJ and Southern Westchester County 7-10" of Snow for NNJ/NW NJ/Lower Hudson Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 333 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 ...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... .LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA DURING SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO OCCUR, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. SOME WARMER AIR MAY ARRIVE ABOVE THE SURFACE SATURDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN SOME ICE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-060>062-132100- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0005.131214T1100Z-131215T1100Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...JIM THORPE... STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 333 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES POSSIBLE. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN TAPER OFF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TEND TO ICE UP FIRST. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 20S SATURDAY, THEN SLOWLY RISING TO NEAR 30 DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 06z NAM is slightly warmer than 0z 06z GFS is slightly colder than 0z 6z gfs was still ugly (if you're a snow lover) for the a lot of NJ ..all of nyc, LI and so Conn. We still see snow some but we warm up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 WSW for 4-8" with around a trace of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 These warm trends are really disheartening. One can only hope slp is not as strong and not as close ti the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 WSW for 4-8" with around a trace of ice. Yup. That's a good start for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 From Upton regarding NYC http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ176&warncounty=NYC081&firewxzone=NYZ176&local_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook#.UqrlrlAo7qA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This has been all over the place, I guess it will change again on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 From Upton regarding NYC http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ176&warncounty=NYC081&firewxzone=NYZ176&local_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook#.UqrlrlAo7qA We need to watch the 850mB Low closely. That's a make or break deal. These warm trends are really disheartening. One can only hope slp is not as strong and not as close ti the coast. As long as the arctic jet doesn't fully phase with the primary, then the 850mB Low will close and the SE flow will be cut. Thus allowing for a more promising snowfall event for the entire Tri State Area. The secondary will form faster because of the lack of energy from the primary (0Z NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I was told by Sickman not to post any ECM Snow maps or any ECM product from WXBELL because they have a fit when we post them (and they are watching etc) .. That is what I was referring to .. As far as there accuracy just stating that it did really well with Tuesdays event... As far as the present map and system is concerned I think for inland locations it is pretty spot on as temperatures would support it as well as thicknesses... NOT TRUE , JB and especially Ryan , love to see all there maps here YOU ARE GOIN TO HAVE TO TRUST ME ON THIS ONE . He take offense , if u say they are overdone , because Ryan based the algo off 10 to 1 using the soundings . So if the model busts then the maps are bad , Dsnow couldn't have said it better , use a little meteorology , if the conditions are marginal and you eek out 6 to 1 or 8 to 1 which happens on the coastal plains then the maps don't work . Trust me they love all there stuff posted here . And if anyone needs verification they ping me privately . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Climo points to a 4 to 8 in event for those in the WSW. For other C NJ counties 1 to 3 to heavy rain. I remember very few instances of snowfall on on snowpack. Just doesnt realty happen in C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 One thing I can tell you, the snowmen built on LI after this storm will be very poor quality and icy/slushy, while across the LI sound.. they will be much more classic. If the 850 and 925 lows track over or west, no classic snow event. Is the two day warm up late next week really going to happen? Seems shocking that it could even happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Climo points to a 4 to 8 in event for those in the WSW. For other C NJ counties 1 to 3 to heavy rain. I remember very few instances of snowfall on on snowpack. Just doesnt realty happen in C NJ. This is so true. Growing up on Coastal Monmouth County, it rarely happened. I remember a couple winters even in the 90's when it was ICE on top of snow. But straight snow on top of snow? Yeah, in my weenie dreams! I was always jealous of the old 'north and west' of the city, and that's party the reason why I live where I live now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Just a programming note, since I don't put much stock into these runs, but the 06z 4km NAM shows the potential for this to essentially be a thump-snow west of the city. Heavy snow ends as a period of sleet or ice but precipitation after that is only light. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_6z/cloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 agree, the Wxbell snow maps do always seem to be overdone, I am sure we just pissed off JB again was this comment. Poor guy operates on a hair trigger. He's using the NAM for this storm for those who are surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Okx going for the cold ! FOCUS DURING THIS TIME IS ON LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS ON SAT. THE PRIMARY LOW SHOULD WEAKEN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLC COASTAL PLAIN AND MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND THEN JUST E OF LONG ISLAND PER 00Z GFS/ECMWF. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP IN INTENSITY BY SAT NIGHT VIA COMBO OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE LOW. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR DAMMING UNLIKELY TO BUDGE AS QUICKLY AS MODEL FCST...SO HAVE UNDERCUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS FCST BY GUIDANCE AND GONE WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. THE 00Z NAM APPEARED TO BE EXHIBITING A MID LEVEL COLD BIAS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WAA ON SE-S H7-9 FLOW OF 50-70 KT AND WAS NOT ACCEPTED FOR THIS EVENT. THE ABOVE SUPPORTS SNOW FOR ALL AREAS INTO SAT EVENING... THEN AS ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW... NYC...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...BUT NOT BEFORE PICKING UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AREAS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THERE SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE SAT NIGHT...AND MIX WITH SLEET WELL INLAND... WITH AT LEAST 6-8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY. HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE ANY WINTRY MIX...SO HIGHER TOTALS CLOSER TO 10-12 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FARTHER INLAND. USING 00Z ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THERMAL PROFILES DID NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP TYPE...BUT WARMER 00Z GFS THERMAL PROFILES DO YIELD MORE IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHEAST NJ EASTWARD TO WESTCHESTER INTO COASTAL SOUTHERN CT...WITH A 3-5 INCH SNOWFALL FOLLOWED BY UP TO 1/4 INCH ICE. THE COMBINED IMPACT STILL WARRANTS A WATCH FOR MOST OF THIS AREA...SO HAVE AT LEAST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MEETING WARNING CRITERIA...AND HIGH CONFIDENCE WELL INLAND. IF WARMER AIR TAKES LONGER TO ARRIVE...NYC COULD ALSO RECEIVE UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT DID NOT HAVE A HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE LEVEL TO INCLUDE THE CITY IN A WATCH ATTM. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO COLLABORATED WITH WFO PHI TO THE SOUTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I was hoping Don or Uncle would have seen my posts about this...for LGA, EWR, TTN I suspect that it's a rare occurrence to get snowfall with previous snowfall on the ground. I remember for Blizzard of 96 there were several piles of snow still around when the snow began,but not truly a snow cover in C NJ. This is so true. Growing up on Coastal Monmouth County, it rarely happened. I remember a couple winters even in the 90's when it was ICE on top of snow. But straight snow on top of snow? Yeah, in my weenie dreams! I was always jealous of the old 'north and west' of the city, and that's party the reason why I live where I live now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I was hoping Don or Uncle would have seen my posts about this...for LGA, EWR, TTN I suspect that it's a rare occurrence to get snowfall with previous snowfall on the ground. I remember for Blizzard of 96 there were several piles of snow still around when the snow began,but not truly a snow cover in C NJ. When the average high temperature is several degrees above freezing even during the coldest month of the year and at least 75% of the wintertime precipitation budget is liquid in an average year, such a result is more or less to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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