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December 14-15 Winter Storm Part Two


earthlight

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The gfs is not showing the CAD being as strong which is kinda odd given the highs draining cold air south. The gfs has been one of the warmest with this, I would go somewhere in between right now.

The gfs is actually quite cold for the first 12snow hours. The problem is the position of the secondary low. No way the cold air hangs on at the coast when the low is onshore.

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Interesting model dynamics - last night the NAM was quite warm the GFS was much colder... tonight, the situation is reversed.

 

Still haven't changed my thoughts for 2-4" SE to NW across the city then a stripe of 4-6, then 6+ N of about I-84 in Ct and equivalent distances to the NW in NJ. 

 

Despite all the model mayhem, this seems a rather conventional winter storm with the whole kitchen sink thrown in and snow/ice amounts roughly following climo expectations. 

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How u feel about ratios up here 13:1+ ?

 

Early on the ratios should be great but as the storm progresses ratios will drop. My concern isn't the surface which we all know will be plenty cold through out the event for up here. My concern are the mid levels and thats where those snow ratios are decided for the most part. Like I said before.. Sleet is a def possibility.

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For those who wanna dream CIPS has 12/5/02 as the #2 analog at 36 hours, also in there is 12/15/07 as the #1 analog at 24 and 12/14/03 as #1 at 36 hours....don't really like any of them, 12/5/02 had better blocking and a more offshore track, 12/15/07 not anywhere near the cold air in place and much more amplification out west which led to us flooding the warm levels earlier than we would with this storm...12/14/03 is the closest of the 3 and even that one is not that close.

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For those who wanna dream CIPS has 12/5/02 as the #2 analog at 36 hours, also in there is 12/15/07 as the #1 analog at 24 and 12/14/03 as #1 at 36 hours....don't really like any of them, 12/5/02 had better blocking and a more offshore track, 12/15/07 not anywhere near the cold air in place and much more amplification out west which led to us flooding the warm levels earlier than we would with this storm...12/14/03 is the closest of the 3 and even that one is not that close.

 

NOUS41 KOKX 062015

PNSOKX

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

315 PM EST FRI DEC 06 2002

STORM TIME/DATE COMMENTS

LOCATION TOTAL

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD...

DANBURY (1) 10.1 1119 PM 12/05

DANBURY (2) 9.0 700 AM 12/06

NORWALK 9.0 650 PM 12/05

WILTON 8.5 900 PM 12/05

NEW CANAAN 8.0 900 PM 12/05

GREENWICH 8.0 900 PM 12/05

FAIRFIELD 7.7 900 PM 12/05

WESTPORT 7.6 1000 PM 12/05

DARIEN 7.5 700 PM 12/05

S. NORWALK 7.5 900 PM 12/05

BRIDGEPORT 6.5 655 PM 12/05

BROOKFIELD 6.0 800 PM 12/05

SPRINGDALE 6.0 900 PM 12/05

...MIDDLESEX...

HAMDAM 7.0 700 PM 12/05

OLD SAYBROOK 6.5 700 PM 12/05

...NEW HAVEN...

MERIDEN 9.5 500 AM 12/06

WALCOTT 9.5 655 PM 12/05

SEYMORE 8.3 800 PM 12/05

NORTH BRANFORD 8.0 830 PM 12/05

GUILFORD 7.7 620 PM 12/05

HAMDEN (1) 7.5 500 AM 12/06

MILFORD 7.5 800 PM 12/05

HAMDEN (2) 7.0 800 AM 12/06

NEW HAVEN 7.0 500 AM 12/06

BEACON FALLS 6.0 500 AM 12/06

EAST HAVEN 6.0 800 PM 12/05

MADISON 6.0 600 AM 12/05

WATERBURY 5.0 500 AM 12/05

...NEW LONDON...

GROTON (1) 9.0 500 AM 12/06

EAST LYME 8.0 710 PM 12/05

COLCHESTER 8.0 715 PM 12/05

GROTON (2) 8.0 700 PM 12/05

LEBANON 7.5 640 PM 12/05

LAUREL HILL 7.0 811 PM 12/05

LEDYARD 7.0 715 PM 12/05

JEWETT CITY 7.0 700 AM 12/06

VOLUNTOWN 7.0 715 PM 12/05

NORWICH (1) 6.3 500 AM 12/06

NORWICH (2) 8.0 700 AM 12/06

FRANKLIN 6.0 440 PM 12/05

MYSTIC 5.0 715 PM 12/05

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN...

HASBROOK HEIGHTS 7.0 800 PM 12/05

WOOD RIDGE 6.9 720 PM 12/05

S. HACKENSACK 6.5 530 PM 12/05

SADDLE BROOK 6.3 830 PM 12/05

FAIR LAWN 6.2 830 PM 12/05

OAKLAND 6.3 830 PM 12/05

RIVER VALE 6.3 830 PM 12/05

RAMSEY 6.0 830 PM 12/05

N. ARLINGTON 5.9 500 PM 12/05

LYNDHURST 5.8 500 PM 12/05

GARFIELD 5.8 830 PM 12/05

LITTLE FAIRY 5.8 830 PM 12/05

RUTHERFORD 5.7 500 PM 12/05

BERGENFIELD 5.5 500 PM 12/05

LODI 5.5 500 PM 12/05

CLIFFSIDE PARK 5.0 500 PM 12/05

...ESSEX...

WEST CALDWELL 7.5 630 PM 12/05

WEST ORANGE 7.0 500 PM 12/05

NORTH CALDWELL 7.0 830 PM 12/05

NEWARK ARPT 6.5 800 PM 12/05

FAIRFIELD 6.0 400 PM 12/05

...HUDSON...

SECAUCUS 7.0 830 PM 12/05

HOBOKEN 6.2 545 PM 12/05

HARRISON 6.2 800 PM 12/05

JERSEY CITY 6.0 500 PM 12/05

...PASSAIC...

WEST MILFORD 8.3 830 PM 12/05

WAYNE 7.3 725 PM 12/05

GREENWOOD LAKE 7.0 700 AM 12/05

BLOOMINGDALE 6.5 830 PM 12/05

LITTLE FALLS 6.8 500 PM 12/05

RINGWOOD 6.3 400 PM 12/05

CLIFTON 6.3 830 PM 12/05

POMPTON LAKES 6.3 830 PM 12/05

HASKELL 6.2 830 PM 12/05

...UNION...

RAHWAY 9.0 830 PM 12/05

ROSELLE 8.3 530 PM 12/05

ELIZABETH 7.9 445 PM 12/05

SPRINGFIELD 7.0 750 PM 12/05

CRANFORD 7.0 750 PM 12/05

UNION TOWNSHIP 6.5 800 PM 12/05

NEW YORK

...BRONX...

COOP CITY 6.0 1000 PM 12/05

PELHAM PARKWAY 5.5 530 PM 12/05

THROGS NECK 5.3 1000 PM 12/05

YANKEE STADIUM 5.0 500 PM 12/05

...KINGS...

GRAVES END 6.5 500 PM 12/05

...NASSAU...

GLEN COVE 8.0 515 PM 12/05

ROCKVILLE CENTRE 7.5 700 PM 12/05

BALDWIN 7.0 900 PM 12/05

OCEANSIDE 6.8 900 PM 12/05

WEST HEMPSTEAD 6.8 830 PM 12/05

SOUTH BELLMORE 6.8 700 PM 12/05

NEW HYDE PARK 6.6 700 PM 12/05

BELLMORE 6.5 700 PM 12/05

FARMINGDALE 6.5 741 PM 12/05

LIDO BEACH 6.5 800 PM 12/05

ROSLYN 6.5 830 PM 12/05

SEA CLIFF 6.5 745 AM 12/06

VALLEY STREAM 6.5 725 PM 12/05

WANTAGH 6.5 1030 PM 12/05

MERRICK 6.4 550 PM 12/05

PLAINVIEW 6.3 550 PM 12/05

LEVITTOWN 6.2 610 PM 12/05

HICKSVILLE 6.0 1100 PM 12/05

GREAT NECK 6.0 500 PM 12/05

LYNBROOK 5.8 900 AM 12/05

S. MASSAPEQUEA 5.6 945 PM 12/05

MINEOLA 5.1 545 PM 12/05

BETHPAGE 5.1 610 PM 12/05

LONG BEACH 5.0 715 PM 12/05

...NEW YORK...

BRYANT PARK (MANHATTAN) 6.9 1100 PM 12/05

CENTRAL PARK (ZOO) 6.0 900 PM 12/05

CENTRAL MANHATTAN 6.0 800 PM 12/05

...ORANGE...

MOUNT HOPE 11.0 800 PM 12/05

CORNWALL ON HUDSON 10.2 900 PM 12/05

CAMPBELL HILL 10.0 700 PM 12/05

CHESTER 10.0 800 PM 12/05

MONROE 10.0 1100 PM 12/05

WEST POINT 10.0 700 AM 12/06

MIDDLETOWN 9.8 640 PM 12/05

WARWICK 9.5 800 PM 12/05

TUXEDO 9.5 1000 PM 12/05

BLOOMING GROVE 9.3 700 PM 12/05

NEW WINDSOR 9.2 1000 PM 12/05

BULLVILLE 9.0 1000 PM 12/05

CIRCLEVILLE 9.0 700 PM 12/05

GOSHEN 9.0 700 PM 12/05

WARWICK 9.0 515 PM 12/05

HIGHLAND HILLS 9.0 900 PM 12/05

NEWBURGH 8.5 700 PM 12/05

GREENWOOD LAKE 9.0 700 PM 12/05

HOWELLS 8.0 430 PM 12/05

WALDEN 7.5 700 PM 12/05

HARRIMAN 6.0 515 PM 12/05

...PUTNAM...

LAKE CARMEL 8.3 700 PM 12/05

CARMEL 8.0 655 PM 12/05

BREWSTER 7.0 515 PM 12/05

MAHOPAC 6.0 515 PM 12/05

...QUEENS...

LA GUARDIA APT 7.0 450 PM 12/05

KENNEDY APT 6.0 450 PM 12/05

BAYSIDE 6.1 800 PM 12/05

...ROCKLAND...

NEW CITY 6.0 450 PM 12/05

ORANGEBURG 5.8 800 AM 12/05

SPARKILL 5.5 900 PM 12/05

...STATEN ISLAND...

RICHMOND 7.2 1000 PM 12/05

ELTINGVILLE 6.8 545 PM 12/05

WESTERLEY 6.7 1000 AM 12/06

...SUFFOLK...

NWS UPTON 8.3 700 AM 12/06

CENTEREACH 8.0 1030 PM 12/05

E. SETAUKET 8.0 550 PM 12/05

NORTHPORT 8.0 900 PM 12/05

SHOREHAM 7.9 600 PM 12/05

MANORVILLE 7.7 1030 PM 12/05

BAITING HOLLOW 7.5 800 PM 12/05

BRIDGEHAMPTON 7.5 700 AM 12/06

CUTCHOGUE 7.5 915 AM 12/06

HOLBROOK 7.5 715 PM 12/05

ISLIP HAMLET 7.5 900 PM 12/05

SETAUKET 7.5 945 PM 12/05

CENTERPORT 7.4 630 AM 12/06

EAST YAPHANK 7.3 920 PM 12/05

DIX HILLS 7.2 600 PM 12/05

W. ISLIP 7.2 530 PM 12/05

SMITHTOWN 7.1 800 PM 12/05

NORTH BABYLON 7.1 1100 PM 12/05

MT SINAI 7.0 800 PM 12/05

PORT JEFFERSON STATION 7.0 800 PM 12/05

WADING RIVER 6.9 745 PM 12/05

LAKE RONKONKOMA 6.5 945 PM 12/05

NORTH BABYLON 6.5 900 PM 12/05

MATTITUCK 6.3 945 PM 12/05

ST JAMES (1) 6.1 715 PM 12/05

SOUTHOLD 6.0 1030 PM 12/05

BELLPORT 6.0 1100 PM 12/05

PORT JEFFERSON 6.0 900 PM 12/05

STONY BROOK 6.0 445 PM 12/05

ROCKY PT 6.0 830 PM 12/05

ST JAMES (2) 5.7 945 PM 12/05

SOUTHAMPTON 5.5 930 PM 12/05

...WESTCHESTER...

YONKERS 6.3 900 PM 12/05

ARMONK 6.0 410 PM 12/05

YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 6.0 500 PM 12/05

OSSINING 6.0 650 PM 12/05

WHITE PLAINS 5.8 800 PM 12/05

NEW ROCHELLE 5.8 500 PM 12/05

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EXTENDS ITS THANKS FOR ALL THE SNOWFALL

REPORTS.

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What do you mean should have been? Why should have it been colder? It shouldn't have to do anything. It's weather forecasting, just because it doesn't show a blizzard doesn't mean it's wrong. Post like this have been happening all week long and it's hard, especially for new people on here to get a grasp on how weather forecasting actually works. Too many people throwing snow bias into the forum. Don't get me wrong, I love the snow, but if a run shows less snow or warmer temps half the board wants to jump off a bridge

 

 

SE winds and an 850 low in western PA....

While I understand the points being made about why it makes sense that the GFS output does what it does and if you feel it makes sense I understand expressing your displeasure with the snow weenieism but from the perspective of those here who believe a snowier solution makes sense and the GFS model which is plenty unreliable for various reasons plenty of the time doesn't, perhaps those who are in the 0z GFS camp should consider the following instead of making snarky comments.

 

The idea that the 850 low will pack the punch the GFS shows while in western PA makes little to no meteorological sense. A known GFS bias is to overdo primary lows and if anyone actually believes that the primary will survive that long into western PA and pack that punch when it gets there barrelling into the strong confluence to the north you are fooling yourselves. It makes 0 sense that the low will even get that far north and makes 0 sense it will be that ampped up and as a result it makes the entire GFS solution idiocy. As big of a joke the NAM model usually is it's solution makes 100% more sense meteorologically in this case than the GFS solution.

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While I understand the points being made about why it makes sense that the GFS output does what it does and if you feel it makes sense I understand expressing your displeasure with the snow weenieism but from the perspective of those here who believe a snowier solution makes sense and the GFS model which is plenty unreliable for various reasons plenty of the time doesn't, perhaps those who are in the 0z GFS camp should consider the following instead of making snarky comments.

The idea that the 850 low will pack the punch the GFS shows while in western PA makes little to no meteorological sense. A known GFS bias is to overdo primary lows and if anyone actually believes that the primary will survive that long into western PA and pack that punch when it gets there barrelling into the strong confluence to the north you are fooling yourselves. It makes 0 sense that the low will even get that far north and makes 0 sense it will be that ampped up and as a result it makes the entire GFS solution idiocy. As big of a joke the NAM model usually is it's solution makes 100% more sense meteorologically in this case than the GFS solution.

+1! Thank you.

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While I understand the points being made about why it makes sense that the GFS output does what it does and if you feel it makes sense I understand expressing your displeasure with the snow weenieism but from the perspective of those here who believe a snowier solution makes sense and the GFS model which is plenty unreliable for various reasons plenty of the time doesn't, perhaps those who are in the 0z GFS camp should consider the following instead of making snarky comments.

The idea that the 850 low will pack the punch the GFS shows while in western PA makes little to no meteorological sense. A known GFS bias is to overdo primary lows and if anyone actually believes that the primary will survive that long into western PA and pack that punch when it gets there barrelling into the strong confluence to the north you are fooling yourselves. It makes 0 sense that the low will even get that far north and makes 0 sense it will be that ampped up and as a result it makes the entire GFS solution idiocy. As big of a joke the NAM model usually is it's solution makes 100% more sense meteorologically in this case than the GFS solution.

Yes I agree that what you said is totally plausible but that's not why those people were disagreeing with the gfs. It was only bc it showed a warmer solution...
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Yes I agree that what you said is total possible and plausible but that's not why those people were disagreeing with the gfs. It was only bc it showed a warmer solution...

I don't know that for sure unless we can read minds here. Is it possible it is just temper tantrums because it was warmer than many would like, sure but I am not one to jump down people's throats for that because how can I know that those folks don't think the same as I do about why they bash the solution. Instead of folks ripping those people to shreds perhaps it is more constructive to ask why they feel the GFS solution is garbage and perhaps we can get more good meteorological discussions going instead of bash each other ping pong.

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While I understand the points being made about why it makes sense that the GFS output does what it does and if you feel it makes sense I understand expressing your displeasure with the snow weenieism but from the perspective of those here who believe a snowier solution makes sense and the GFS model which is plenty unreliable for various reasons plenty of the time doesn't, perhaps those who are in the 0z GFS camp should consider the following instead of making snarky comments.

 

The idea that the 850 low will pack the punch the GFS shows while in western PA makes little to no meteorological sense. A known GFS bias is to overdo primary lows and if anyone actually believes that the primary will survive that long into western PA and pack that punch when it gets there barrelling into the strong confluence to the north you are fooling yourselves. It makes 0 sense that the low will even get that far north and makes 0 sense it will be that ampped up and as a result it makes the entire GFS solution idiocy. As big of a joke the NAM model usually is it's solution makes 100% more sense meteorologically in this case than the GFS solution.

While I agree to a certain extent with you...I think to say it's 100 percent meteorologically incorrect what the gfs is showing is not entirely true. The eventual coastal forms from energy provided by the lead sw and the plains sw... However there isa noticeable amount of energy provided by the much stronger Arctic sw diving in and that is what may be allowing the primary to hang on longer than usual.
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While I agree to a certain extent with you...I think to say it's 100 percent meteorologically incorrect what the gfs is showing is not entirely true. The eventual coastal forms from energy provided by the lead sw and the plains sw... However there isa noticeable amount of energy provided by the much stronger Arctic sw diving in and that is what may be allowing the primary to hang on longer than usual.

I am well aware of that and have taken it into consideration. There's no consistency amongst all the models regarding the features you highlight so just because the GFS says that's how things will interact doesn't mean it is a likely scenario in this setup. GFS has also had a past bias of diving other shortwaves in as you describe too quickly. It's not impossible but I am just not buying it.

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I am well aware of that and have taken it into consideration. There's no consistency amongst all the models regarding the features you highlight so just because the GFS says that's how things will interact doesn't mean it is a likely scenario in this setup. GFS has also had a past bias of diving other shortwaves in as you decribe too quickly. It's not impossible but I am just not buying it.

I agree with you. It's less likely that it will hold on that long. .. At least at that strength. So we agree there. However it's another solution on the table.

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There are some differences in nam and gfs that can't be ignored. The nam has no interaction with the Arctic sw and thus the primary is allowed to die off quicker where as with the gfs it interacts that sw with the lead shortwaves and keeps feeding the primary. This may be the key to how long the primary winds up holding on. Look at the 500mb setups between the two at hours 51 and 54. I would post but am on phone.

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any news on the euro?

yes, 2 - 3  inches from the park through Nassau County , less into Coastal NJ up thru Suffolk County before a change to rain and temps get to 40

6 plus NW of the city .Not a  cold  look at all city south and east

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Interesting model battle going on. Should be intetesting to see what happens

Well once you discount the NAM there isn't much of a battle. I'll go with the EURO here, it's two runs in a row that it went warm for the coast - take it to the bank.

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Care to amend your statement from earlier?

Lol no not really. I still think the interaction is overdone if it even happens to begin with. Many people still reach at least 4 inches+ of snow anyway before the changeover. Feel free to subtract 2 or 3 inches from these totals if you think it is overdone many folks still get to 3 or 4+

ecmwf_tsnow_nyc_12.png

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ECM Data 

 

Hr 36 Light precipitation breaking out across all of PA but SE PA ..All of NJ but central south

 

Hr 42 Light precipitation over the whole region stretching up into south central NY State..

 

Hr 48 Light to moderate precipitation across the region from Southern NY thru NJ and south into MD with the heaviest in SC PA 

540 line in SE PA 

 

Hr 54 Light to moderate precipitation over NY State into SNE ..Heaviest from East central PA to SE PA to all of NNj but extreme NW NJ where it is moderate.

 

540 Line in NE PA with the low tucked right along the SNJ coast..

 

Hr 60 Heaviest Precipitation now over LI and points NE 

 

Surface temperatures 

 

Hr 36 teens in Northern and NE PA ..NY state in the single digits and teens and 20s elsewhere

Hr 42 teens in NY State with 20s to around 30 pretty much elsewhere including along the coast...

Hr 48 NY state in the teens with mid 30s on LI and to  Central Jersey ,  South of there  low to mid 40s along the coast.. ..NNJ and inland locations in the teens and 20s 

 

Hr 54 20s NE PA Immediate Phl burbs mid 30s ..east central PA around 30 SE PA & central Jersey Mid 30s . LI and southern Jersey in the mid 40s 

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