UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Typical time for us to get NAM'd Now if the GFS, CMC, and ECMWF trend better...then its gets interesting. I agree.. I remember plenty of times the NAM was amped up on a weenie run but brought back to reality a run or two later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Look at it this way...if you really look at the details, the run is SIMILAR with many things EXCEPT qpf. It does this often....explodes with qpf. Point being...The NAM still shows snow to rain for the coastal cities...(except Boston)....though I will say the chances are there for 3-5" of it for NYC/EWR and PHL It's also a decent amount colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Tomorrow night you can start to take a look at the NAM to possibly use for a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Someday, hopefully this winter, a NAM map like that WILL verify. Dreams can come true if you believe. I hope..if the nams qpf was correct I would already have a foot of snowpack, I gotta dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 As much as I'd like to believe the NAM, I don't want to fall for it's trickery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It's actually not a colder run comparing it to last run's frames 6hours ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Here's the warmest the NAM gets in KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It is DARN cold out there right now (esp. up here in NW NJ). Feels like an airmass that does not want to leave soon or easily. I can see the colder solutions winning. What IS really encouraging is how much wetter the models are becoming (NAM may be crazy, but GFS was wetter as well). Rooting for all of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Very classic, typical freezing line setup on the Nam, shows some strong winds too on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 03Z SREF for KLGA continues to show moderate impact for snow and low visibility. Actually an extended period of nine hours +. I don't buy that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It's actually not a colder run comparing it to last run's frames 6hours ahead Yes, and no. The GLARING difference tonight is that the NAM has a closed 925 and 850 low develop ALONG with the coastal. This could wind up (if correct) to be a huge player in the final thermal profile. If these low/mid level features develop then we are talking a whole different ballgame. To add: The GFS does not have these features develop. The development of these features will aid in funneling back down the cold air from the N and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It is DARN cold out there right now (esp. up here in NW NJ). Feels like an airmass that does not want to leave soon or easily. I can see the colder solutions winning. What IS really encouraging is how much wetter the models are becoming (NAM may be crazy, but GFS was wetter as well). Rooting for all of us! 850mbs aren't gonna get above -10 lol. Soo cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 03Z SREF for KLGA continues to show moderate impact for snow and low visibility. Actually an extended period of nine hours +. I don't buy that yet. You mean the 21z? 3z wont be out for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If the secondary development is faster and further south, then the 850mb low can develop further south and east then the coast gets more snow and less rain. The latest run of the NAM is showing this, if the trend in the models continue with the GFS and ECMWF than this might happen. We need to look at the 500MB level to see how strong the southern systems are and how much cold air damming the East Coast gets. So at this time it is still up in the air, but the trends of the last few runs do show a good snow potential for DCA to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think generally if NYC sees snow with a storm it doesn't bode well for ALB because it's either a coastal that us took far offshore or it's one if these SWFEs with east winds Not all that rare..off the top of my head 2 KU events below...also 1888 and late feb 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not all that rare..off the top of my head 2 KU events below...also 1888 and late feb 2010 The December 2010 storm has hits in BOS, ALB, and NYC... but all the rest seem to have been NYC/ALB hits and not BOS indicating more of a straight longitude rain/snow line... So how rare are storms that hit NYC/ALB/BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Here's the warmest the NAM gets in KNYC What's the coldest? I can't read that sorry, big weenie here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If the secondary development is faster and further south, then the 850mb low can develop further south and east then the coast gets more snow and less rain. The latest run of the NAM is showing this, if the trend in the models continue with the GFS and ECMWF than this might happen. We need to look at the 500MB level to see how strong the southern systems are and how much cold air damming the East Coast gets. So at this time it is still up in the air, but the trends of the last few runs do show a good snow potential for DCA to BOS. Exactly, the 850mb low prognosis has dramatically shifted from last night to tonight on the NAM. Last night there was no closed low at 850 and the mid level torch flowed unabated N. However, it should go without saying the effect that a closed 850 low off the coast would be a most encouraging development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The original clown maps... ontact: Evan Kuchera 0.5 degree isobaric GFS GRIB data from NCEP. The snowfall accumulation algorithm used on these charts is as follows: 1) Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MAXTMP) 2) If MAXTMP is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MAXTMP) 3) If MAXTMP is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + (271.16-MAXTMP) The 3-hourly snowfall (SNOW) is RATIO multiplied by the three hour liquid precipitation total. The accumulated snowfall (ACCUM_SNOW) is the sum of all the SNOW values up to that projection time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Exactly, the 850mb low prognosis has dramatically shifted from last night to tonight on the NAM. Last night there was no closed low at 850 and the mid level torch flowed unabated N. However, it should go without saying the effect that a closed 850 low off the coast would be a most encouraging development. We just need to start seeing other models develop it besides the lousy NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NAM MTO for EWR has 800-850 around .5-.8 degrees from hour 54-hour 60, all other parts of the column are frozen. .80 precip falling within that time frame, most likely all frozen. 1.3 liquid precip over the course of the event. Not buying anything until a few more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Here's the warmest the NAM gets in KNYC SLEET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 We just need to start seeing other models develop it besides the lousy NAM. Exactly, cautious optimism is best at this point (and even that may be going too far with the NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I cannot really tell without a frame beyond 48 hours and only having the surface panels so far but it appears the RGEM is going to go way north with the surface low although its placement of the 540 thickness at 00Z Sat Eve is identical to the NAM's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nam is 1.2in LE as snow for NYC. Almost no rain. And a bit of freezing rain (0.15) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 03Z SREF for KLGA continues to show moderate impact for snow and low visibility. Actually an extended period of nine hours +. I don't buy that yet. huh, those dont count for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NAM MTO for EWR has 800-850 around .5-.8 degrees from hour 54-hour 60, all other parts of the column are frozen. .80 precip falling within that time frame, most likely all frozen. 1.3 liquid precip over the course of the event. Not buying anything until a few more runs. The gfs showed almost the same thing except not as cold of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nam gave me 6-8 in with last storm. Reality was 2-3. So. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 SLEET! The precip is pretty much entirely over by that point...so NYC never gets above freezing at the surface on the NAM...too bad it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.