jdt Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2080.html Latest Meso discussion from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This would put down a tremendous amount of snow right before the switch... hrrr_ref_nyc_12.png Wow! Those 40+ dbz returns are right over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yeah same as the Mt Holly radar is better to use alot of the time for NYC or LI Dix does nothing for me; we are near the edge of its range and its looking too high this far out from KDIX. I do use it to look upstream sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 That 32 degrees has been riding Rt 195 all day, notice it sank a little further southwest of TTN over the last few hours. The surface temps really spell trouble for a lot of areas. If ur in the teens ur not goin to 32. 850s can b plus 5 the surface15 miles inland prob not moving Above freezing on an e or ene wind. If u Wana warm the surface u need to turn the winds S cnj can snap to 35 in 3 hours. But once N of 78 and w of mayb the tpke. It's all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Gut feeling...snow to frozen...We definitely loose snow at about 10PM then frozen, I doubt hours of pure rain. It's going to happen unfortunately. It doesn't matter how cold it is now, we're going to torch late this evening when the coastal develops and winds pivot to east. I think we get above 40, maybe even 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Down to 23.0 JM1220 bet ya lunch or dinner that temps don't push past freezing until 3AM tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The models still have the mid level dry slot later tonight that forky and earthlight were discussing? Trying to nail down an end time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Make that 22.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The models still have the mid level dry slot later tonight that forky and earthlight were discussing? Trying to nail down an end time. I sure hope so. I'd want to preserve this as much as possible. You obviously have a lot less to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 22.6...will post future temps in obs section Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I sure hope so. I'd want to preserve this as much as possible. You obviously have a lot less to worry about. I tried wording it nice so no one got mad at me, though im definitely switching over as well. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Quite shocked here actually, been snowing all day light-moderate into 25-26 degree sfc temperatures. Thicknesses look good still and yet the snow growth and accumulations are terrible so far. Maybe a quarter inch (and that has mostly only been in the last two hours) AAMOF it's almost a snow/mist. Interesting. The omega in the snow growth region was pretty poor all day and the BUFKIT showed that. Fortunately we were able to generate some good snow growth earlier...but for the most part the lack of lift in the snow growth region has prevented efficient crystallization and thus kept totals a bit down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I tried wording it nice so no one got mad at me, though im definitely switching over as well. Lol Between my location and yours in 6 hours, it will be like comparing Key West to Nome, Alaska. That warm push looks like it means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 A lot of dry air thus far in this area, pushing back the heavy snow extent into NJ. Nothing but some flurries outside now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Really crappy omega on the RAP HPN sounding... Seeing lots of cones and needles mixed with some occasional dendrites. Reminds me of 12/19/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 FWIW... The HRRR has the possibility of a line of low-topped convection passing through the twin forks later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Roads are a mess here in freehold, snowing moderate ATM..Will measure soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The 4km is starting to show some brief icing potential this evening from NYC to Nassau as the cold air is holding stronger at the surface and the 900-950 layer gets above freezing. But rapid warming will follow as we go over to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Don't think to many models showed this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Better pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Better pic You got into the lucky spot like areas around Philly did last Sunday. The band has been parked there for hours. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0Q-1-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Quite shocked here actually, been snowing all day light-moderate into 25-26 degree sfc temperatures. Thicknesses look good still and yet the snow growth and accumulations are terrible so far. Maybe a quarter inch (and that has mostly only been in the last two hours) AAMOF it's almost a snow/mist. Interesting. Maybe too much wind. MMU reported blowing snow early this afternoon: KMMU 141845Z 06006KT 1SM BLSN OVC014 M05/M07 A3038 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 You got into the lucky spot like areas around Philly did last Sunday. The band has been parked there for hours. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0Q-1-48 It looks like a coastal front formed and stalled in Northern Ocean County, enhancing precipitation in Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It looks like a coastal front formed and stalled in Northern Ocean County, enhancing precipitation in Monmouth. Yeah, that's the lucky overrunning spot. There are probably some really large wet flakes in that bright banding area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Will the south shore of LI start pinging before the rain, or does it go straight to rain? There is something fascinating watching precip transitioning as one can see the warm frontal slope doing its deed with actual observation. As of right now are we starting to lose the perfect snow sounding, with warming aloft ? I notice the winds increasing, I have a feeling around the transition, the winds will start howling from the ENE with gusts to near 40 mph, as the cold layer gets blasted out suddenly, and the pressure falls rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Maybe too much wind. MMU reported blowing snow early this afternoon: KMMU 141845Z 06006KT 1SM BLSN OVC014 M05/M07 A3038 ~11 miles to the sw of kmmu in Bernardsville there's currently blowing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 18 here and dropping. Are we really going over to liquid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohnywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 18 here and dropping. Are we really going over to liquid? I don't think we go over to plain rain here...News 12 is insisting we will around midnight, but the latest update from Upton says that we remain a IP/ZR mix through the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Mod sleet now falling here in freehold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I don't think we go over to plain rain here...News 12 is insisting we will around midnight, but the latest update from Upton says that we remain a IP/ZR mix through the night. Looks like we did switch over for at least a short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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