JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Any chance we can redevelop SE of AC towards the warmer water and b a little further east. The longer the NE wind the better It's always a possibility. Even 25-50 miles further SE would provide a huge surprise for most on this forum. Keep monitoring the pressure changes for any signs of that happening. The problem is that stubborn SE ridge is always pushing back on the baroclinic zone. And the pressure falls to the ENE may just be an indication of a relaxing of the peripheral edges of the SFC HP over the Atlantic rather then an actual indication of movement of the LP right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Absolutely, its always one of my first post-storm traditions to venture up into the sourlands to compare my backyard to their totals "up" there. Yeah, sometimes crazy differences...our area is always on the climo favored freeze-liquid line. When surface temps are the issue the 400' rise can yield some dramatic differences, mainly early and late season snows. But when the issue is the upper levels (like today), not so much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It's always a possibility. Even 25-50 miles further SE would provide a huge surprise for most on this forum. Keep monitoring the pressure changes for any signs of that happening. Thank u I will settle for 10 , WSW hav to go up in all 5 boroughs. It's 25 there. I don't thnk I've seen a model W less than 6 at the park and on the N shore of the island Even when they change the damage will have been done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Love the sourlands. Hike there all the time. My snow was melting as well but as soon as the intensity picked up my street got covered. Its actually the heaviest of the day for me right now..temp down to 23 Same here, what trails do you venture on? Have you ever been to ringing rocks? There is usually a noticeable difference from IMBY to the sourlands most especially in these marginal events for the area. It's amazing what even that 4-500 foot difference can make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Can someone explain to me what this dry streak is on my radar... It's been in the same location for several storms yet hasn't been there in the past... I know it's a radar issue but I'm curious if anyone knows exactly what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Can someone explain to me what this dry streak is on my radar... It's been in the same location for several storms yet hasn't been there in the past... I know it's a radar issue but I'm curious if anyone knows exactly what There's a water tower just to the NW of the KOKX radar in Upton, it blocks the signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Two new maps from Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 There's a water tower just to the NW of the KOKX radar in Upton, it's blocks the signal. Lol figures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Can someone explain to me what this dry streak is on my radar... It's been in the same location for several storms yet hasn't been there in the past... I know it's a radar issue but I'm curious if anyone knows exactly what There's a water tower adjacent to the radar tower that blocks the beam some times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Same here, what trails do you venture on? Have you ever been to ringing rocks? There is usually a noticeable difference from IMBY to the sourlands most especially in these marginal events for the area. It's amazing what even that 4-500 foot difference can make. I usually go to the boulder area not sure if that's where you mean. Edit I see your location now so you're in the other part of the sourlands. I usually go to the Hillsborough section Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The NAM and the GFS are really warm, what is Upton seeing that those models arent? I dont mean it as a bashing of upton, i know even on some of the coolwx diagrams, it states that the models often misdiagnose low level cold air as rain instead of snow. Is that a possibility here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The NAM and the GFS are really warm, what is Upton seeing that those models arent? I dont mean it as a bashing of upton, i know even on some of the coolwx diagrams, it states that the models often misdiagnose low level cold air as rain instead of snow. Is that a possibility here? 1-2" an hour rates before changeover. Also, you are correct, models often underestimate low level cold (from 925 mb to surface is trickiest), and can show more rain than snow due to that, however, in this case where the warmer air is making its punch at all levels (especially 925-800mb) I think the models may even be Underestimating the warm air push as is often the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 There's a water tower just to the NW of the KOKX radar in Upton, it blocks the signal.Yeah, it's been there for years, nothing new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Anyone in Monmouth county see this on the high res models? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=012ℑ=data%2Fhrw-arw%2F12%2Fhrw-arw_eus_012_precip_p12.gif&model=hrw-arw-eus&area=eus¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yeah, it's been there for years, nothing new. At time I'll flip to the KBGM radar. Esp. in the summer when tracking thunderstorms form that region. That blip can be annoying at times on this side of the county. Still chilly north of the city. REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 100 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2013 NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-141900- NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CENTRAL PARK LGT SNOW 25 19 78 E13G23 30.42F WCI 14 LAGUARDIA APRT LGT SNOW 25 20 81 NE21G29 30.42F WCI 11 KENNEDY INTL LGT SNOW 26 21 81 NE17 30.42F WCI 13 NEWARK/LIBERTY LGT SNOW 25 22 88 NE13 30.41F FOG WCI 14 TETERBORO LGT SNOW 25 18 74 NE10G17 30.41F WCI 15 $ NYZ052-065-067-141900-HUDSON VALLEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS WHITE PLAINS LGT SNOW 20 14 77 NE6 30.40F FOG WCI 12 NEWBURGH LGT SNOW 16 12 86 E9 30.44F WCI 4 MONTGOMERY LGT SNOW 16 10 77 N12 30.43F WCI 3 POUGHKEEPSIE LGT SNOW 17 10 74 N6 30.46F WCI 9 ALBANY LGT SNOW 10 1 67 VRB3 30.51F $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The NAM and the GFS are really warm, what is Upton seeing that those models arent? I dont mean it as a bashing of upton, i know even on some of the coolwx diagrams, it states that the models often misdiagnose low level cold air as rain instead of snow. Is that a possibility here? These models really aren't the ones to be using. Use the RAP and HRRR and current temps/radar to diagnose. To me, that's what they are doing b/c these scream for some nice totals in what were the somewhat marginal areas in Upton's forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 1-2" an hour rates before changeover. Also, you are correct, models often underestimate low level cold (from 925 mb to surface is trickiest), and can show more rain than snow due to that, however, in this case where the warmer air is making its punch at all levels (especially 925-800mb) I think the models may even be Underestimating the warm air push as is often the case. Cool, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 At time I'll flip to the KBGM radar. Esp. in the summer when tracking thunderstorms form that region. That blip can be annoying at times on this side of the county. I'll use that one and KDIX too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Thank you for your kind words and done! Thanks Great, thanks - even though we have a little latitude on Ringoes in the Edison/Metuchen area, we're closer to the ocean and have a little less elevation, so I'm guessing we'll change over to rain before you do. This is where being just 10 miles to the NW past the first Watchung ridge can make a huge difference. I recall one storm about 10 years ago in March, I think, where we got 1-2" of wet snow, then a lot of rain, while my friend in Warren, 10 miles away, got 15" of heavy wet snow, being 1-2F colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Great, thanks - even though we have a little latitude on Ringoes in the Edison/Metuchen area, we're closer to the ocean and have a little less elevation, so I'm guessing we'll change over to rain before you do. This is where being just 10 miles to the NW past the first Watchung ridge can make a huge difference. I recall one storm about 10 years ago in March, I think, where we got 1-2" of wet snow, then a lot of rain, while my friend in Warren, 10 miles away, got 15" of heavy wet snow, being 1-2F colder. Exactly, this had always struck me as a climo favored event where from NW Hunterdon up through the Watchung ridges a myself and earthlight were discussing a few days prior, would do very well and S-SE of there would dropoff significantly (even dramatically). There is going to be areas thru central-NNJ that go from 2-4" to 6-8" in a very short distance. This could likely be from my house to Clinton area and NEwrd through the watching ridge area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 3"/hour rates as the storm climaxes and we turn to rain (heavy snow rates in NW NJ) based on 15z HRRR run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Exactly, this had always struck me as a climo favored event where from NW Hunterdon up through the Watchung ridges a myself and earthlight were discussing a few days prior, would do very well and S-SE of there would dropoff significantly (even dramatically). There is going to be areas thru central-NNJ that go from 2-4" to 6-8" in a very short distance. This could likely be from my house to Clinton area and NEwrd through the watching ridge area. It's possible but if temps soar this evening I think everyone jumps from the mid and upper 20's above freezing in a hurry except for NW Jersey, so even elevation may not help you if you are in central portions especially when 850 and 925 mb temps are well above freezing too. If this was a marginal event where the coast was going to 34 and inland 31 then it would be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 At time I'll flip to the KBGM radar. Esp. in the summer when tracking thunderstorms form that region. That blip can be annoying at times on this side of the county. 9 times out of 10 I use BGM as my radar site.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 9 times out of 10 I use BGM as my radar site.. Yeah same as the Mt Holly radar is better to use alot of the time for NYC or LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Wanna post this in here because it could perhaps get your southern areas. State college nws mentioned the chance of thunder snow this afternoon and evening once the banding begins. Hopefully someone in the area gets this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 23.9 now in Lynbrook, temps are ticking a tenth of a degree downward every 20 minutes or so, no uptick at all. Had to edit...23.7 now 23.5 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This would put down a tremendous amount of snow right before the switch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I flip between okx and dix radars. I use pykl3 on my phone. Does anyone know a good radar for the phone thaat shows the precip types and mix lines.?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I flip between okx and dix radars. I use pykl3 on my phone. Does anyone know a good radar for the phone thaat shows the precip types and mix lines.?? I actually like the weatherbug radar believe it or not. You can really zoom in and it seems relatively accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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