JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Is there a link to learn how to best read the soundings on the point and click? Thanks! http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/ It will be on that site, that is one of the best sites ive come across to answer pretty much any intricate meteorology question Specifically, 291-320 are all about Skew T. Anything you'll need/want to know will be in there. Or you could always ask here and I'd be more than happy to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/ It will be on that site, that is one of the best sites ive come across to answer pretty much any intricate meteorology question Specifically, 291-320 are all about Skew T. Anything you'll need/want to know will be in there. Or you could always ask here and I'd be more than happy to help Very cool. Thank you so much! Been following your posts since you joined and they're the reason I spend more time than my wife would like on this site! Based on the HiRes (and I'm going to try this myself) but at what hour do they say that there's a flip to FRZ up in the Sussex County area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Very cool. Thank you so much! Been following your posts since you joined and they're the reason I spend more time than my wife would like on this site! Based on the HiRes (and I'm going to try this myself) but at what hour do they say that there's a flip to FRZ up in the Sussex County area? You are most welcome, and thank you for the kind words (apologies to the wife though lol). It appears based on RAP (and this seems to follow HRRR almost identically) that area flips from 3-4z. Though its a shallow warm layer (around 800-900 mb) so this is likely a period of intense sleet followed by a quick transition to rain thereafter. Once the mid level punch begins to happen, I'd remind everyone that there is literally nothing to stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 By 2z the warmth at the mid levels has penetrated, and only NWrn areas remain snow. 100% agree based on what that run of RAP is showing and the evidence is growing for that to become an actuality. With the secondary at the surface thru mid levels being very slow to develop it may increase the freezing rain threat for a strip of the NW area where surface cold holds (no strong low level flow to erode it completely in those areas) while much of the levels above that easily break the freezing threshold. Something to keep an eye on. I was not to big on the freezing rain threat earlier but that was when the secondary was more pronounced earlier on. That appears to be changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Temperature dropped 1 degree. Sitting at 24 now. Light snow. 1/2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 You are most welcome, and thank you for the kind words (apologies to the wife though lol). It appears based on RAP (and this seems to follow HRRR almost identically) that area flips from 3-4z. Though its a shallow warm layer (around 800-900 mb) so this is likely a period of intense sleet followed by a quick transition to rain thereafter. Once the mid level punch begins to happen, I'd remind everyone that there is literally nothing to stop it. Rain or FRZ? With the temps here hovering around 20, I'd have a hard time believing there'd be much plain rain, but I could be wrong! I told my wife that today is like my Super Bowl. She knew what she was marrying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Returns south of LI showing more of a coastal signature with strengthening inflow on Mt. Holly radar... the area from PHL and NE is filling in - ongoing snows through the afternoon. Liking the radar presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Rain or FRZ? With the temps here hovering around 20, I'd have a hard time believing there'd be much plain rain, but I could be wrong! I told my wife that today is like my Super Bowl. She knew what she was marrying! I'd monitor surface temps closely, but I'd suspect there is a legitimate FRZA threat from Central-NNJ with temperatures as you said hovering in the lower-md 20's atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Wondering to myself why it seems as though nothing is sticking. It also appears much brighter then I'd typically expect for this kind of event as it seems the sun is almost popping out here. Im sitting at 26 degrees with snow melting as soon as it hits certain surfaces (grass is somewhat sticking, but cars, sidewalks and pavement don't stand a chance) http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet/mapviewer.php?m=solarradiation1&t=cur It appears as though there are pockets of atypical insolation right over Hunterdon County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 In Lynbrook 25.5 degrees after a high earlier of 26.2...Keeping an eyes on this highly accurate thermometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur You can start to see the very first hints of a secondary developing (and it doesn't look good for those who want a more SE track). Also the primary is still chugging along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Wondering to myself why it seems as though nothing is sticking. It also appears much brighter then I'd typically expect for this kind of event as it seems the sun is almost popping out here. Im sitting at 26 degrees with snow melting as soon as it hits certain surfaces (grass is somewhat sticking, but cars, sidewalks and pavement don't stand a chance) http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet/mapviewer.php?m=solarradiation1&t=cur It appears as though there are pockets of atypical insolation right over Hunterdon County. Noticing the same thing here, just to your east...snowing all morning over snowpack, yet little stickage even with temps below 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Wondering to myself why it seems as though nothing is sticking. It also appears much brighter then I'd typically expect for this kind of event as it seems the sun is almost popping out here. Im sitting at 26 degrees with snow melting as soon as it hits certain surfaces (grass is somewhat sticking, but cars, sidewalks and pavement don't stand a chance) http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet/mapviewer.php?m=solarradiation1&t=cur It appears as though there are pockets of atypical insolation right over Hunterdon County. Noticing the same thing here, just to your east...snowing all morning over snowpack, yet little stickage even with temps below 25. I thought maybe I was going crazy wxman, but that pocket of insolation is the only thing I can come up with to explain it. Others are reporting C to 1" with light snow and temps nearly similar. Also, nice to see someone else from my immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur You can start to see the very first hints of a secondary developing (and it doesn't look good for those who want a more SE track). Also the primary is still chugging along. I was just noticing that on the SPC Meso Analysis Page. I think the RAP model run we recently discussed is evidence of what is to come this evening / tonight. I see that Upton increased a narrow but distinct band of icing back thru NNJ with 0.25"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Fyi: WNBC has upped snow totals for 4-8"for NYC. What did they have for NW of I-287? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I thought maybe I was going crazy wxman, but that pocket of insolation is the only thing I can come up with to explain it. Others are reporting C to 1" with light snow and temps nearly similar. Also, nice to see someone else from my immediate area. Does your property have a south exposure? Slope to the south? It is max insolation time of day so that may explain it when combined with thin cloud deck and lighter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I thought maybe I was going crazy wxman, but that pocket of insolation is the only thing I can come up with to explain it. Others are reporting C to 1" with light snow and temps nearly similar. Also, nice to see someone else from my immediate area. Indeed, will be good to compare notes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohnywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 What did they have for NW of I-287? They have all of Westchester in the 4-8" zone...with Dutchess/Putnam/Orange in the 8-12" zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 In Lynbrook 25.5 degrees after a high earlier of 26.2...Keeping an eyes on this highly accurate thermometer. I am not far from there and am sitting at 27.0 still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Returns south of LI showing more of a coastal signature with strengthening inflow on Mt. Holly radar... the area from PHL and NE is filling in - ongoing snows through the afternoon. Liking the radar presentation. Yup. Coming right at us now. Hopefully we can at least have a few fun hours with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Down to 24.3 now in Lynbrook, as long as it doesn't say 31.5 yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Got .5" on the ground here as the ratios may be running more like 12-15 to 1. Temp just dropped down to 26.8 in Western Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 They have all of Westchester in the 4-8" zone...with Dutchess/Putnam/Orange in the 8-12" zone That seems hard to believe... No way northern Westchester should be in the same as NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Does your property have a south exposure? Slope to the south? It is max insolation time of day so that may explain it when combined with thin cloud deck and lighter precip. Yup, it's actually the north side of my house that never receives the sun. The back of my house faces south/southeastward towards the Sourlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This is excruciating to see where this is going. Currently at technology HS here in Colts Neck we are sitting at 25.7 with steady snow. About half an inch so far. 13 miles north is the Driscoll they prob get 6. We should finish with 2. But belmar which 16 miles to my south east is where NOAA thinks my temp is its 32 THERE. Good thing so far it's 28 at the sandy hook buoy . So I'm safe for now. Talk about being in between. But when push comes to shove , the warm air will overwhelm down here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 17z Wxunisys 3hr press changes show the primary still deepening. Pressure falls are occurring from FL to MN showing what a robust system this is. The next few hours of pressure fall watching are crucial to determining the final track of the secondary LP system. (Interesting falls to the ENE of the now developing secondary LP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Indeed, will be good to compare notes! Absolutely, its always one of my first post-storm traditions to venture up into the sourlands to compare my backyard to their totals "up" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 17z Wxunisys 3hr press changes show the primary still deepening. Pressure falls are occurring from FL to MN showing what a robust system this is. The next few hours of pressure fall watching are crucial to determining the final track of the secondary LP system. (Interesting falls to the ENE of the now developing secondary LP) Any chance we can redevelop SE of AC towards the warmer water and b a little further east. The longer the NE wind the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Looks like some bright banding showing up just south of Monmouth with some big wet snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Absolutely, its always one of my first post-storm traditions to venture up into the sourlands to compare my backyard to their totals "up" there. Love the sourlands. Hike there all the time. My snow was melting as well but as soon as the intensity picked up my street got covered. Its actually the heaviest of the day for me right now..temp down to 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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