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December 14-15 Winter Storm Part Two


earthlight

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Is there a link to learn how to best read the soundings on the point and click?  Thanks!

 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/

 

It will be on that site, that is one of the best sites ive come across to answer pretty much any intricate meteorology question

 

Specifically, 291-320 are all about Skew T. Anything you'll need/want to know will be in there. Or you could always ask here and I'd be more than happy to help

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http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/

 

It will be on that site, that is one of the best sites ive come across to answer pretty much any intricate meteorology question

 

Specifically, 291-320 are all about Skew T. Anything you'll need/want to know will be in there. Or you could always ask here and I'd be more than happy to help

Very cool. Thank you so much!  Been following your posts since you joined and they're the reason I spend more time than my wife would like on this site!

 

Based on the HiRes (and I'm going to try this myself) but at what hour do they say that there's a flip to FRZ up in the Sussex County area? 

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Very cool. Thank you so much!  Been following your posts since you joined and they're the reason I spend more time than my wife would like on this site!

 

Based on the HiRes (and I'm going to try this myself) but at what hour do they say that there's a flip to FRZ up in the Sussex County area? 

You are most welcome, and thank you for the kind words (apologies to the wife though lol). It appears based on RAP (and this seems to follow HRRR almost identically) that area flips from 3-4z. Though its a shallow warm layer (around 800-900 mb) so this is likely a period of intense sleet followed by a quick transition to rain thereafter. Once the mid level punch begins to happen, I'd remind everyone that there is literally nothing to stop it.

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By 2z the warmth at the mid levels has penetrated, and only NWrn areas remain snow.

100% agree based on what that run of RAP is showing and the evidence is growing for that to become an actuality. With the secondary at the surface thru mid levels being very slow to develop it may increase the freezing rain threat for a strip of the NW area where surface cold holds (no strong low level flow to erode it completely in those areas) while much of the levels above that easily break the freezing threshold. Something to keep an eye on. I was not to big on the freezing rain threat earlier but that was when the secondary was more pronounced earlier on. That appears to be changing.

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You are most welcome, and thank you for the kind words (apologies to the wife though lol). It appears based on RAP (and this seems to follow HRRR almost identically) that area flips from 3-4z. Though its a shallow warm layer (around 800-900 mb) so this is likely a period of intense sleet followed by a quick transition to rain thereafter. Once the mid level punch begins to happen, I'd remind everyone that there is literally nothing to stop it.

Rain or FRZ?  With the temps here hovering around 20, I'd have a hard time believing there'd be much plain rain, but I could be wrong!

 

I told my wife that today is like my Super Bowl.  She knew what she was marrying!

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Rain or FRZ?  With the temps here hovering around 20, I'd have a hard time believing there'd be much plain rain, but I could be wrong!

 

I told my wife that today is like my Super Bowl.  She knew what she was marrying!

 

I'd monitor surface temps closely, but I'd suspect there is a legitimate FRZA threat from Central-NNJ with temperatures as you said hovering in the lower-md 20's atm.

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Wondering to myself why it seems as though nothing is sticking. It also appears much brighter then I'd typically expect for this kind of event as it seems the sun is almost popping out here. Im sitting at 26 degrees with snow melting as soon as it hits certain surfaces (grass is somewhat sticking, but cars, sidewalks and pavement don't stand a chance)

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet/mapviewer.php?m=solarradiation1&t=cur

 

It appears as though there are pockets of atypical insolation right over Hunterdon County.

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Wondering to myself why it seems as though nothing is sticking. It also appears much brighter then I'd typically expect for this kind of event as it seems the sun is almost popping out here. Im sitting at 26 degrees with snow melting as soon as it hits certain surfaces (grass is somewhat sticking, but cars, sidewalks and pavement don't stand a chance)

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet/mapviewer.php?m=solarradiation1&t=cur

 

It appears as though there are pockets of atypical insolation right over Hunterdon County.

 

 

Noticing the same thing here, just to your east...snowing all morning over snowpack, yet little stickage even with temps below 25.

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Wondering to myself why it seems as though nothing is sticking. It also appears much brighter then I'd typically expect for this kind of event as it seems the sun is almost popping out here. Im sitting at 26 degrees with snow melting as soon as it hits certain surfaces (grass is somewhat sticking, but cars, sidewalks and pavement don't stand a chance)

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet/mapviewer.php?m=solarradiation1&t=cur

 

It appears as though there are pockets of atypical insolation right over Hunterdon County.

 

 

Noticing the same thing here, just to your east...snowing all morning over snowpack, yet little stickage even with temps below 25.

 

I thought maybe I was going crazy wxman, but that pocket of insolation is  the only thing I can come up with to explain it. Others are reporting C to 1" with light snow and temps nearly similar. Also, nice to see someone else from my immediate area.

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http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur

 

You can start to see the very first hints of a secondary developing (and it doesn't look good for those who want a more SE track). Also the primary is still chugging along.

I was just noticing that on the SPC Meso Analysis Page. I think the RAP model run we recently discussed is evidence of what is to come this evening / tonight. I see that Upton increased a narrow but distinct band of icing back thru NNJ with 0.25"+.

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I thought maybe I was going crazy wxman, but that pocket of insolation is  the only thing I can come up with to explain it. Others are reporting C to 1" with light snow and temps nearly similar. Also, nice to see someone else from my immediate area.

Does your property have a south exposure? Slope to the south? It is max insolation time of day so that may explain it when combined with thin cloud deck and lighter precip. 

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Does your property have a south exposure? Slope to the south? It is max insolation time of day so that may explain it when combined with thin cloud deck and lighter precip. 

 

Yup, it's actually the north side of my house that never receives the sun. The back of my house faces south/southeastward towards the Sourlands.

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This is excruciating to see where this is going. Currently at technology HS here in Colts Neck we are sitting at 25.7 with steady snow. About half an inch so far. 13 miles north is the Driscoll they prob get 6. We should finish with 2.

But belmar which 16 miles to my south east is where NOAA thinks my temp is its 32 THERE.

Good thing so far it's 28 at the sandy hook buoy . So I'm safe for now.

Talk about being in between. But when push comes to shove , the warm air will overwhelm down here .

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17z Wxunisys 3hr press changes show the primary still deepening. Pressure falls are occurring from FL to MN showing what a robust system this is. The next few hours of pressure fall watching are crucial to determining the final track of the secondary LP system. (Interesting falls to the ENE of the now developing secondary LP)

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17z Wxunisys 3hr press changes show the primary still deepening. Pressure falls are occurring from FL to MN showing what a robust system this is. The next few hours of pressure fall watching are crucial to determining the final track of the secondary LP system. (Interesting falls to the ENE of the now developing secondary LP)

Any chance we can redevelop SE of AC towards the warmer water and b a little further east. The longer the NE wind the better

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Absolutely, its always one of my first post-storm traditions to venture up into the sourlands to compare my backyard to their totals "up" there.

Love the sourlands. Hike there all the time. My snow was melting as well but as soon as the intensity picked up my street got covered. Its actually the heaviest of the day for me right now..temp down to 23

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