December 14-15 Winter Storm Part Two

[nyblizz44]

Moderators I think Following the storm maps should be pinned when you have moment. Thank you. link is below:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/4152-tracking-storms-20122013/

[WintersGrasp]

The good news here is that the bands of snow should be setting up almost due west to east, which also follows the precip changeover....on a line almost west to east...not SW, to NE....this is good news for us meaning that most areas will changeover before us, and we should hang on for quite some time, even into NYC and LI. We DO, however, mix and changeover by 10pm, 11pm would be the latest. There is an extremely sharp cutoff from 4-6 inches to just about NOTHING south of it....but luckily we ARE on the north side of this line, north of Monmouth county/staten island

[jdt]

Current SPC meso analysis shows a 1040 high just north of NY / VT! Low level cold solid down thru NY in NNJ / NE PA. Once south of about I-80 and definitely I-78 the dense cold has not quite penetrated. That may play a role later.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

 

Just to clarify it is cold south of 80 & 78 just not as significantly cold as further north.

[Superstorm93]

[Metsfan]

Current SPC meso analysis shows a 1040 high just north of NY / VT! Low level cold solid down thru NY in NNJ / NE PA. Once south of about I-80 and definitely I-78 the dense cold has not quite penetrated. That may play a role later.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

 

Just to clarify it is cold south of 80 & 78 just not as significantly cold as further north.

Not an overly strong CAD sig, but it's there.

[JetsPens87]

Current SPC meso analysis shows a 1040 high just north of NY / VT! Low level cold solid down thru NY in NNJ / NE PA. Once south of about I-80 and definitely I-78 the dense cold has not quite penetrated. That may play a role later.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

Just to clarify it is cold south of 80 & 78 just not as significantly cold as further north.

Absolutely. The cold never penetrated down my way. Sitting at what feels like a warm 26 degrees on east winds while just north is 15 to 20 on ne winds. The eventual snowfall totals should follow what is climo typical almost to the t.

[HSNN4]

I don't recall too many times where there was a 19 degree temperature difference between Hudson County ( Harrison ) and

Seaside Heights ( Ocean )   Only means the writing is on the wall when the wind direction changes, 

[SnowGoose69]

I don't recall too many times where there was a 19 degree temperature difference between Hudson County ( Harrison ) and

Seaside Heights ( Ocean )   Only means the writing is on the wall when the wind direction changes, 

 

Its a different world down there with a NE wind, even a wind of 030-040 is bad for them while its great for most of the NYC metro, a 050-070 wind is even tolerable for the NYC area, its game over down there.

[Stormlover74]

Absolutely. The cold never penetrated down my way. Sitting at what feels like a warm 26 degrees on east winds while just north is 15 to 20 on ne winds. The eventual snowfall totals should follow what is climo typical almost to the t.

Mid 20s across most of central/north jersey except for nwnj. Meanwhile its well above freezing in south jersey

[JSantanaNYC]

20F now. Moderate snow

[jdt]

I don't recall too many times where there was a 19 degree temperature difference between Hudson County ( Harrison ) and

Seaside Heights ( Ocean )   Only means the writing is on the wall when the wind direction changes, 

Hey there Tony! I agree this will be an old fashion typical type event from a sensible weather perspective. The wintry impacts will be more significant and longer lasting the further N&W one goes. Key between far NW locales and ares immediately N&W of NYC will be how intense precip is as the transition to sleet / fr / rain occurs and how fast and far that transition occurs. I-287 / I-78 and even more so I-80 will likely be the break zone from mostly snow to a true mixed bag event this evening / tonight. Based on past history I will not be surprised to hear some pingers later this evening / tonight here in Sparta. Wild card will be if that intense thermal gradient can enhance heavy precip rates on the snow side of things. That could push some typically favored areas such as West Milford near or slightly over 12". 

[Juliancolton]

Just hit the 1" mark... been snowing relatively lightly all morning, but snow growth is great

[Stormlover74]

Gfs crushes us with heavy rain tonight. Nearly an inch in 6 hours. Im sure some of it is frozen but its in the low 40s by midnight

[RU848789]

Absolutely. The cold never penetrated down my way. Sitting at what feels like a warm 26 degrees on east winds while just north is 15 to 20 on ne winds. The eventual snowfall totals should follow what is climo typical almost to the t.

 

JetPens - love your recent input, but it would be helpful if you would add your location to your profile, so we know where "my way" is.  Since I assume you're new, all you need to do is click on your username at the top of the page, then click on "my profile" in the drop down menu, then when your profile page pops up, click on the "edit profile" hotlink on the far right of the page, then scroll down to your "profile information" which includes a box for entering your location - add it, then select "save changes" at the bottom of the page.  Thanks.

[SnoSki14]

Gfs crushes us with heavy rain tonight. Nearly an inch in 6 hours. Im sure some of it is frozen but its in the low 40s by midnight

So in the end it won't matter who gets 2" or 6" because it'll all get washed away.

[Stormlover74]

So in the end it won't matter who gets 2" or 6" because it'll all get washed away.

Not necessarily. 6" of snow can hold quite a bit of rain but yeah an inch or two probably washed away

[WintersGrasp]

Gfs crushes us with heavy rain tonight. Nearly an inch in 6 hours. Im sure some of it is frozen but its in the low 40s by midnight

So in the end it won't matter who gets 2" or 6" because it'll all get washed away.

Good point !

[REDMK6GLI]

just have to look where the secondary develops and how close it will be tucked to the coast. nothing is written in stone yet. however, me being SW Suffolk county im pretty much toast anyway

[StatenWx]

just have to look where the secondary develops and how close it will be tucked to the coast. nothing is written in stone yet. however, me being SW Suffolk county im pretty much toast anyway

All we can hope for is that it tracks further south than modeled.

[jm1220]

just have to look where the secondary develops and how close it will be tucked to the coast. nothing is written in stone yet. however, me being SW Suffolk county im pretty much toast anyway

Yup. Enjoy what you're getting today-tomorrow almost certainly we will be staring at bare ground.

[JetsPens87]

just have to look where the secondary develops and how close it will be tucked to the coast. nothing is written in stone yet. however, me being SW Suffolk county im pretty much toast anyway

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_3pres.gif

 

Good link to monitor for pressure changes

[JetsPens87]

JetPens - love your recent input, but it would be helpful if you would add your location to your profile, so we know where "my way" is.  Since I assume you're new, all you need to do is click on your username at the top of the page, then click on "my profile" in the drop down menu, then when your profile page pops up, click on the "edit profile" hotlink on the far right of the page, then scroll down to your "profile information" which includes a box for entering your location - add it, then select "save changes" at the bottom of the page.  Thanks.

Thank you for your kind words and done! Thanks

[96blizz]

Love the look of the newest RAP SIM Radar...  Out to hour 9.  Hours 7-9 are gorgeous...

[96blizz]

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=15&fhour=10&parameter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[Weathergun]

Fyi: WNBC has upped snow totals for 4-8"for NYC.

[jdt]

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=15&fhour=10&parameter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Quick look of that RAP run shows a freezing rain threat a few hours later! No sign of the primary 850 low dying off and a secondary redeveloping thru hour 13. Warm air will penetrate aloft even into the NW areas if that is the outcome. Sleet for sure and freezing rain possible if the depth of warm air allows that. But before that a few hours of moderate to heavy snow with good totals in the favored NW areas. SE into metro NNJ / NYC metro and points S and SE go to rain as surface temps surge above freezing.

[simpsonsbuff]

Perhaps, I'm nuts... but shouldn't this warrant a winter storm warning in northwest parts of this advisory then? http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ073&warncounty=NYC005&firewxzone=NYZ073&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory#.UqyJGuW2FD4

[JetsPens87]

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=15&fhour=10&parameter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Looking at the point and click soundings, Central NJ would still have FRZA troubles, but in any regards most QPF comes after the mid level torch. This seems to be the latest trends with HIRES models.

[96blizz]

Looking at the point and click soundings, Central NJ would still have FRZA troubles, but in any regards most QPF comes after the mid level torch. This seems to be the latest trends with HIRES models.

Is there a link to learn how to best read the soundings on the point and click?  Thanks!

[JetsPens87]

Quick look of that RAP run shows a freezing rain threat a few hours later! No sign of the primary 850 low dying off and a secondary redeveloping thru hour 13. Warm air will penetrate aloft even into the NW areas if that is the outcome. Sleet for sure and freezing rain possible if the depth of warm air allows that. But before that a few hours of moderate to heavy snow with good totals in the favored NW areas. SE into metro NNJ / NYC metro and points S and SE go to rain as surface temps surge above freezing.

 

By 2z the warmth at the mid levels has penetrated, and only NWrn areas remain snow.