bluewave Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 GFS still showing about 2-2.5" for the South Shore of Nassau before the changeover tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 RAP has 6-8 for Morris County (prob overdone) and 2-3 for NYC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 MT Holly has the best forecasters and they don't forecast by each and every model run, besides when it is within 12 hrs or so it's best to pay attention to radar trends. Despite all the gnashing of teeth, the NWS didn't really change the forecast much, with warning and advisory locations unchanged, and snowfall forecasts largely unchanged, although a bit less snow and a bit more ZR was put into the transition zone, generally near I-95. For example, at my location, in Metuchen, they had predicted 4-6" of snow and 0.05" of ZR earlier, but with the updated package, they're predicting 3-5" of snow and about 0.15" of ZR before the changeover to rain - similar shaving back of snowfall and a modest increase in freezing rain was predicted along most of the I-95 corridor (I live 1/2 mile from the NJ TPK). Interestingly, the NWS in Philly is predicting a bit less snow than the NWS in NYC, especially at the borders between the 2 offices, i.e., Union/Essex Counties are generally predicted to get 6-8" of snow by the NWS-NY, while adjacent areas in eastern Somerset/Morris Counties are generally predicted to get 4-6" of snow. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Honestly I think its time to stop looking at the models and rely on nowcasting and observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Honestly I think its time to stop looking at the models and rely on nowcasting and observations. Exactly. The models are actually a bit too warm this morning when in reality it's colder and dryer. They don't match up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Exactly. The models are actually a bit too warm this morning when in reality it's colder and dryer. They don't match up. It was suppose to be 25F this morning, but I'm getting a reading of 22.6F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 MT Holly has the best forecasters and they don't forecast by each and every model run, besides when it is within 12 hrs or so it's best to pay attention to radar trends. The only thing I think that saves the coast now to exceed 2-3 inches is if we come down like a b**ch so to speak on the snowfall rates from 22-00Z and onward, the HRRR suggests beginningf around 22Z that does happen and if we get that mix line in CNJ it could help matters...Upton AFD hits it well, if we changeover at 01Z or 00z its maybe 2-3 inches if that, if its 03-04Z its easily 4-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The only thing I think that saves the coast now to exceed 2-3 inches is if we come down like a b**ch so to speak on the snowfall rates from 22-00Z and onward, the HRRR suggests beginningf around 22Z that does happen and if we get that mix line in CNJ it could help matters...Upton AFD hits it well, if we changeover at 01Z or 00z its maybe 2-3 inches if that, if its 03-04Z its easily 4-6 inches. Upton is also very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The only thing I think that saves the coast now to exceed 2-3 inches is if we come down like a b**ch so to speak on the snowfall rates from 22-00Z and onward, the HRRR suggests beginningf around 22Z that does happen and if we get that mix line in CNJ it could help matters...Upton AFD hits it well, if we changeover at 01Z or 00z its maybe 2-3 inches if that, if its 03-04Z its easily 4-6 inches. Do you feel the the mid levels warm as fast as most overnight guidance had it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Do you feel the the mid levels warm as fast as most overnight guidance had it? Not to interrupt snowgoose... But with a low tucked into the coast like that there is virtually an unabated torch at the mid levels. In these setups surface hangs onand mid levels warm faster usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Do you feel the the mid levels warm as fast as most overnight guidance had it? If the precip is light then yes, if we're snowing an inch an hour it will be held off, almost always is the case, my guess is we see sleet in the NYC metro around 01-02Z if we're not getting the rates some of the higher res models suggest, if we are mod-heavy then I could easily see heavy snow til 04Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 If the precip is light then yes, if we're snowing an inch an hour it will be held off, almost always is the case, my guess is we see sleet in the NYC metro around 01-02Z if we're not getting the rates some of the higher res models suggest, if we are mod-heavy then I could easily see heavy snow til 04Z If you see 45 plus dbz headed towards you then you know the sleet is coming lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not to interrupt snowgoose... But with a low tucked into the coast like that there is virtually an unabated torch at the mid levels. In these setups surface hangs onand mid levels warm faster usually. With it tucked into the coast we usually benefit from that up here but my concern is the primary hanging tough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 With it tucked into the coast we usually benefit from that up here but my concern is the primary hanging tough.. Sorry I'm on my phone. I neglected to see your location. Areas further nw should do really nicely. I thought you were nyc. My apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Sorry I'm on my phone. I neglected to see your location. Areas further nw should do really nicely. I thought you were nyc. My apologies. Yeah im in NW Orange County.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 50 degree sst ouch . offshore is going to get snotty, batten down the hatches.The prince of darkness for coastal storms early in the season is that one big factor we overlook at times.Buoy readings there must be small craft warnings up and down the seaboard been there done that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 50 degree sst ouch . offshore is going to get snotty, batten down the hatches.The prince of darkness for coastal storms early in the season is that one big factor we overlook at times.Buoy readings there must be small craft warnings up and down the seaboard been there done that. I have an ENE Wind flow right now, but the temps have been falling ever since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yeah im in NW Orange County.. As long as the primary doesn't hang on to long and the developing coastal achieves some mid level features then you should be okay up there. The key is breaking that se and ese flow at the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 As long as the primary doesn't hang on to long and the developing coastal achieves some mid level features then you should be okay up there. The key is breaking that se and ese flow at the mid levels. I figured we would flip to ip/zr for the last hour or so of the event but some overnight guidance had us flipping a little after midnight. I think that may be a little too fast. I guess time will tell. Thanks for your input! Always good to see another Met posting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The early snow start may help to increase total snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The canadian maritimes will be the jackpot if i was a betting man the guess would be Newfoundland,Prince edward isles maybe somewhere up there could be impressive totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Latest runs of the HRRR hit us with very heavy rates 10-15 hours and accumulate 4-6 inches all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Latest runs of the HRRR hit us with very heavy rates 10-15 hours and accumulate 4-6 inches all snow At Hour 10-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yes about 4-6" of snow have accumulated for most of NNJ including NENJ into the western portions of the NYC area by 9pm with sleet probably mixing in around 10pm. Between 5pm and 9pm we have bands of snow in the area of at least 1"/hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yes about 4-6" of snow have accumulated for most of NNJ including NENJ into the western portions of the NYC area by 9pm with sleet probably mixing in around 10pm I'm getting a pretty good jump start of that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM pretty much holds serve....4-5" snow over quickly to rain by late evening for ALL areas shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Latest runs of the HRRR hit us with very heavy rates 10-15 hours and accumulate 4-6 inches all snow Haven't seen it. Can u post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This is total accumulated snowfall by 9pm tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Thank you. 12z NAM looks similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yes the HRRR amounts are 4-6 for us, 6-8 WNJ and 10-12" for parts of PA/WV just through 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.