Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Very cold so far this run. By Saturday evening temps still in 20s and 3-4" already has fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 ridiculous QPF bomb on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Huge run. This is going to be 5" snow for NYC here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Wow. Obviously to be taken w/ a grain of salt, but what was great to see was how amped the NAM was early in the run. Also, is this the NAM doing it's way overdone precip start? Who knows now a days...im excited for tonight's euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NAM looks really, really juicy. Kick down the temps a bit and this is a big hit for the city. By 57 hours Bergen has over 1" of QPF, more than likely all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Fun to look at, but thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NAM looks really, really juicy. Kick down the temps a bit and this is a big hit for the city. By 57 hours Bergen has over 1" of QPF, more than likely all snow. Where in Bergen ? Southern Bergen has NYC climate, northern much different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nam clown map prints out 8-12" from philly moving northeast with the same over nj/nyc LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I have a strange feeling this could be another system that surprises us at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Fun to look at, but thats about it. Yeah, though I'd love to see the NAM verify, it probably won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NAM looks really, really juicy. Kick down the temps a bit and this is a big hit for the city. By 57 hours Bergen has over 1" of QPF, more than likely all snow. Yeah 850s don't go above freezing til 06z just away from the cities so easily 8-10" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Where in Bergen ? Southern Bergen has NYC climate, northern much different Pretty much gets split in half. I'll have to use HPN's soundings for this run instead of EWR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 New England gets clobbered this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Lower Hudson valley, North western jersey and parts of CT get pounded this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Fun to look at, but thats about it. Yeah, we're still way outside of the NAM's useful range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Let's look at it this way....it's a huge step in the RIGHT direction, NAM or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I don't think y'all realize how good the nam just was. Snow maps and soundings show boatloads of snow for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Let's look at it this way....it's a huge step in the RIGHT direction, NAM or not I would agree especially for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Weenie maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I don't think y'all realize how good the nam just was. Snow maps and soundings show boatloads of snow for all of us. I'd like to see that run hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah, we're still way outside of the NAM's useful range We're only 36 hours from start time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Let's wait another 4 hours for confirmation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 We're only 36 hours from start time Like I said, way outside of the NAM's useful range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Just checked my watch, it's right about that time when the NAM does something ridiculous..holds it for a few runs to convince us, and then slowly backs off as the event occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 You know it's winter when people start falling in love with what the Nam shows. Unless I see more support, I'm not buying it. I do like how it's showing the CAD a lot better, that actually looks pretty realistic. The stronger coastal is also helping to keep the cold in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Like I said, way outside of the NAM's useful range Where have you been for the last two events? It locked on to a solution at 48 hours out and outperformed both the Euro and the GFS. Not saying it's right, and the qpf is most likely overdone, but its far from "useless" at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Lol clown map gives me 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Typical time for us to get NAM'd Now if the GFS, CMC, and ECMWF trend better...then its gets interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The NAM is probably just slightly overdoing it. Since 12z GFS was wetter than 12z NAM (rare in itself) , it was only normal to expect a NAM run like this eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Look at it this way...if you really look at the details, the run is SIMILAR with many things EXCEPT qpf. It does this often....explodes with qpf. Point being...The NAM still shows snow to rain for the coastal cities...(except Boston)....though I will say the chances are there for 3-5" of it for NYC/EWR and PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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