ace0927 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 rgem_ptype_acc_nyc_17.png wow - great graphics. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 I would personally not get overly excited about the Rgem. I've been following that model for years and would wait for the 6z and 12z runs to see if it holds and shows consistency. It has essentially been showing the same thing every run since 48 hours, and the GGEM too. Guess it could tick warmer at the last minute but it's been very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It has essentially been showing the same thing every run since 48 hours, and the GGEM too. Guess it could tick warmer at the last minute but it's been very consistent. Eerily consistent. Not that it's right, but the NAM has been downright schizophrenic by comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I just decreased my official forecast for NYC down by one inch to 2"-5" and I am changing to all rain by midnight. The trend is not a snow lover friend this time. Which model are you backing - the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 All of them have been getting a little warmer each run except the RGEM, in addition the cold air up north is advancing slower then I predicted. These are the main two reason I had to deduct the inch and warmed it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 00z GGEM has some serious banding over northern jersey lower Hudson valley and western CT... Just as cold too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Would be wise to now rely more on short range high resolution models and general synoptic dynamics in the here and now to get a better grasp on what's truly going to happen. One thing for sure....it's getting cold with dropping dew points! The battle between warm and cold starts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Looks like Mt. Holly upped their totals a bit...wonder if Upton way do the same to NE NJ guess they like the ggem lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 guess they like the ggem lol I certainly do lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 All of them have been getting a little warmer each run except the RGEM, in addition the cold air up north is advancing slower then I predicted. These are the main two reason I had to deduct the inch and warmed it up. I'm going with 35% chance at 4" now for Central Park. I'd say more likely they end up with 3", maybe less if the trends on other models tonight are right. Going to be downright depressing after 8pm or so for most of the coastal/city folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 0z Euro held serve.It shows about 3-6 inches for NYC until the precip turns to rain. There is a lot of rain on the Euro after several hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Temps are hanging on WAY to long/high in midtown. I dont think we get down to 25 like is forecast. I think this keeps totals on the lower end of the guidance. Hopefully they plunge quickly, but im not sure that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Temps are hanging on WAY to long/high in midtown. I dont think we get down to 25 like is forecast. I think this keeps totals on the lower end of the guidance. Hopefully they plunge quickly, but im not sure that will happen. This happens almost all the time before a storm. Clouds roll in and temps end up warmer than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 All of them have been getting a little warmer each run except the RGEM, in addition the cold air up north is advancing slower then I predicted. These are the main two reason I had to deduct the inch and warmed it up. My temp has already jumped from a low of 22 back up to 25. Models seem insistent on a more amped tucked in low. ..And the surface temps and 850 look to warm quicker. Really this airmass is not "frigid"and those hoping for a miracluous surprise will likely get a reality check with a low tucked in that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Does anyone have the MM5? It's usually a halfway decent hi-res model, but I haven't seen a single post about it. Not sure if that means it's warm, or if people have just forgotten about it. Also, for those freaking out about the current temps running warm, the winds are now out of the North thoughout the area so it looks like the cold front has finally moved through. Boston's down to 14, ORH and Albany are down to 11, and the Hartford/BDL area is in the low 20's. All of those locations have had their dews drop into the single digits. Not sure exactly how that will translate down this way, but it should start to seep down over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Temperature was stuck here at 28 for the longest time then winds switched to the NE and we are now at 26 with a DP of 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Link for SSB MM5 is here, but it quickly redirects. If you can read very fast you can see that they are replacing it: http://www.somas.stonybrook.edu/ITPA/npages/weather.html This one direct link seems to still work, but may not be updated every model run: http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/12km.boci.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Temperature of 21 in Ossining NY and dew point is 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 6z rgem crushes weenie dreams dropping snow amounts for anyone who was marginal. Very disappointing. Looks like 1-2" in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Despite all the gnashing of teeth, the NWS didn't really change the forecast much, with warning and advisory locations unchanged, and snowfall forecasts largely unchanged, although a bit less snow and a bit more ZR was put into the transition zone, generally near I-95. For example, at my location, in Metuchen, they had predicted 4-6" of snow and 0.05" of ZR earlier, but with the updated package, they're predicting 3-5" of snow and about 0.15" of ZR before the changeover to rain - similar shaving back of snowfall and a modest increase in freezing rain was predicted along most of the I-95 corridor (I live 1/2 mile from the NJ TPK). Interestingly, the NWS in Philly is predicting a bit less snow than the NWS in NYC, especially at the borders between the 2 offices, i.e., Union/Essex Counties are generally predicted to get 6-8" of snow by the NWS-NY, while adjacent areas in eastern Somerset/Morris Counties are generally predicted to get 4-6" of snow. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The 6z gfs is more of the same...the 6z NAM is warmer than the gfs. Both stink for snow lovers in NJ (excluding the NW corner)..nyc and LI. We will all see snow, some of us prob not too much. Can't really complain considering the date. Hopefully it overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 6z rgem crushes weenie dreams dropping snow amounts for anyone who was marginal. Very disappointing. Looks like 1-2" in the city. It looks fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It looks fine to me. Depends what you consider fine. Pretty certain NYC just went from ~15mm to barely 10 and less than that in southern sections. Nenj just cut back by several inches of snow. Edit - 1-2" is a bit low, more like 3-4". Still it cut back from 5-6" at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Depends what you consider fine. Pretty certain NYC just went from ~15mm to barely 10 and less than that in southern sections. Nenj just cut back by several inches of snow. 10mm is ~.4" of LE -- that's certainly better than 1-2." It fits the theme of probably 2-5" for NYC, with 2" in Brooklyn gradually increasing to around 5" as one heads to the Bronx and southern Westchester. 6"+ in NYC was always a longshot, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 10mm is ~.4" of LE -- that's certainly better than 1-2." It fits the theme of probably 2-5" for NYC, with 2" in Brooklyn gradually increasing to around 5" as one heads to the Bronx and southern Westchester. 6"+ in NYC was always a longshot, IMO. you're right. Edited above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Funny how the RGEM just does not want to spread that 20-30mm zone into NW NJ (i.e. Sussex County) lol It seems this willl be a typical (though that has not seemed to happen as much in recent years) 30-40+ miles N&W of the NYC event with regard to best snows. Sussex, Warren, Western Morris, Western Passaic, NW Bergen, Orange & Northern Westchester Counties and those beyond should do well. Probably 5-10" with lowest S&E where sleet, fr & maybe rain become a factor and highest N&W with mainly all snow. 5-8" is my call in Sparta as I may flirt with the sleet / fr line at some point depending on eventual specific outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Huge difference from 0z rgem. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_00/accum/SN_000-048_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Huge difference from 0z rgem. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_00/accum/SN_000-048_0000.gif Seems like only a couple mm difference.. the colors are diff on the map u posted compared to the one he postes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Seems like only a couple mm difference.. the colors are diff on the map u posted compared to the one he postesIt's a 5 mm diff. More in nenj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It's a 5 mm diff. More in nenj.Its a 5 mm difference in NENJ and couple mm for nycReally it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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