ace0927 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 So is this a 'miller b' or what? Not really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This run changes orh to rain Orh doesn't look like it flips to rain but it looks like Boston does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 yes but surface temps torch like the nam showed i have skepticism that LI (South Shore) will even see 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Orh doesn't look like it flips to rain but it looks like Boston does. Boston gets torched on both GFS and NAM runs. For their sake, hopefully they went too far. As for us, , but that was established anyways. I'm resolved to seeing the ground whitened again hopefully and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 so how much snow for Central Jersey before the changeover....1-2 or 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 So NAM and GFS bring ice to I 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 So NAM and GFS bring ice to I 84?[/quote Nam and gfs are very different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 RGEM trended a bit wetter and about 25-30 miles colder/farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 If people compare the models to actual temps happening now you will see they are busting too warm. Take a look at south Jersey. They are in the 20's already. Models said 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 RGEM trended a bit wetter and about 25-30 miles colder/farther south. IMO this model is great at this time frame... It modeled those 3 previous waves pretty well with the exception of last Saturdays waves rains/snow line and even then it was only off by about 20 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 IMO this model is great at this time frame... It modeled those 3 previous waves pretty well with the exception of last Saturdays waves rains/snow line and even then it was only off by about 20 miles The thing is 20 miles can make a huge difference whether it be north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The thing is 20 miles can make a huge difference whether it be north or south. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 so how much snow for Central Jersey before the changeover....1-2 or 3? No it's still a decent front-end thump before the changeover...probably like 3-6". The changeover seems to be occurring at about the same time on these latest runs as it has before (around 3z or so)...but the surface temps seem to be warming much faster which limits our icing potential and switches us over to rain quickly. We'll see what happens but Mt. Holly is expecting around a quarter inch of ice here so they must be thinking that the surface cold will stick around longer than what these runs are showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHarr Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 No it's still a decent front-end thump before the changeover...probably like 3-6". The changeover seems to be occurring at about the same time on these latest runs as it has before (around 3z or so)...but the surface temps seem to be warming much faster which limits our icing potential and switches us over to rain quickly. We'll see what happens but Mt. Holly is expecting around a quarter inch of ice here so they must be thinking that the surface cold will stick around longer than what these runs are showing... By Central Jersey, do you mean Mercer/Middlesex/Monmouth, or do you include northernish counties like Hunterdon in that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 00z RGEM would easily verify the winter storm warnings for portions of Northern NJ. Still sticking to 6-8". Events like this always come down to very intense nowcasting around here. should be an interesting event nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 No it's still a decent front-end thump before the changeover...probably like 3-6". The changeover seems to be occurring at about the same time on these latest runs as it has before (around 3z or so)...but the surface temps seem to be warming much faster which limits our icing potential and switches us over to rain quickly. We'll see what happens but Mt. Holly is expecting around a quarter inch of ice here so they must be thinking that the surface cold will stick around longer than what these runs are showing... The GFS even has LGA above 0C by 02z at 925mb but if it's snowing hard enougjh that could be held off another hour or two honestly the snow totals really come down to if many areas go over at 1-2Z or 3-5z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 That's around 8-9 pm right? What I mean is 1-2z is 8-9 pm? yes minus 5 hours to get est Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 If people compare the models to actual temps happening now you will see they are busting too warm.Take a look at south Jersey. They are in the 20's already. Models said 30's[/quot Not sure the models had me at 34 at midnight, but we will overlook that to back up your point ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 That's around 8-9 pm right? What I mean is 1-2z is 8-9 pm? Correct, subtract 5 hours from Z to get EST. (During daylight savings, subtract 4 to get EDT). Now some mod can please delete both these messages to keep the thread more on-topic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 RGEM trended a bit wetter and about 25-30 miles colder/farther south. That's a ton of moisture! A lot of juice. Per NAM, no way the SLP dives into ENY with such a strong confluence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Man, the RGEM is cold. The precipitation type maps are showing zero rain west of Newark. All frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Man, the RGEM is cold. The precipitation type maps are showing zero rain west of Newark. All frozen. What's is showing east of Central Park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 By Central Jersey, do you mean Mercer/Middlesex/Monmouth, or do you include northernish counties like Hunterdon in that? I was referring more to Hunterdon, Somerset, and I guess northern Middlesex. Monmouth is probably more like 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 What's is showing east of Central Park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Man, the RGEM is cold. The precipitation type maps are showing zero rain west of Newark. All frozen. Far upstate NY currently has temps ~ -5 to -15 and dps of ~ -15 to -25. Closer to Albany temps single digits and dps slightly below zero. Let those seep this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I was referring more to Hunterdon, Somerset, and I guess northern Middlesex. Monmouth is probably more like 1-3". 2 - 4 officially per Mt Holly. (Western Monmouth/Southern Middlesex) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 what is that,like .15-.20 for jfk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I just decreased my official forecast for NYC down by one inch to 2"-5" and I am changing to all rain by midnight. The trend is not a snow lover friend this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I would personally not get overly excited about the Rgem. I've been following that model for years and would wait for the 6z and 12z runs to see if it holds and shows consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Looks like Mt. Holly upped their totals a bit...wonder if Upton will do the same to NE NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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