Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 ZERO chance of snow with 850 up there The storm is well over by then, but it goes to show how bad the trends have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 John it was 35 today - what cold air are we referring to? To be fair, the high temperature on a dry, sunny day is not indicative of how it'll be when it's actually snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 They had it last Sunday also and instead we rose into the upper 30s. This situation is a bit different in that there is already cold air in place and a strong surface high to the north -- the other event was post-frontal cold air advection and I don't think there was really a high up there...the other event had much warmer antecedent air than what we have today for tomorrow's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The storm is well over by then, but it goes to show how bad the trends have been. agreed - im not a Met, but I was never excited in the slightest by this system. Its mid-december, warm ocean, marginal cold air with a primary cutting, h85 low way west of us and no block...this is a glorified SWFE which usually dont bode well for us in general. I wouldnt be shocked if this turned out to b a BRIEF period of frozen precip followed by rain (South shore of LI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 John it was 35 today - what cold air are we referring to? It's nice and cold here, you need to chill out. Idk why you are losing it. This is not a storm for the south shore anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It's nice and cold here, you need to chill out. Idk why you are losing it. This is not a storm for the south shore anyway. that is a no doubter....both points you make Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Off memory I think this is better than 12Z's was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 When does the gfs come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 When does the gfs come out? 10:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Off memory I think this is better than 12Z's was You are correct sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Off memory I think this is better than 12Z's was yup, my KU comment holds more water with that map - boston gonna get blitzed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 10:30 is when the GFS comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Off memory I think this is better than 12Z's was Pretty sure you're right. IMBY, it showed about 15mm on the 12Z run. Now I see 20. At least it's a calming voice on the weenie suicide hotline... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 When does the gfs come out? It starts coming out around 10:30. Anyone panicking over 1 warm run of the NAM really needs to take a deep breath and relax. Lets let the rest of the 0z suite playout. At a quick glance, the GGEM looks a lot better than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 RGEM way better than the NAM on precip advancing in...here is its 21-00Z period...dont have any thermals yet... Yeah, but you can get a sense of thermals from the 540 thickness line, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Rgem has an increase in snow. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Rgem has an increase in snow. Nice run. And you can generally add accumulation for LI/NYC/CNJ to its totals minus the Jersey for sure because for whatever reason it tends to think that area is an ocean, you can see its effect of that a bit in how it has a ton of snow for Groton vs. the north fork of LI where there can be a gradient but generally not that big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 News media is hyping this event. My gf just text me and said that the trains might be suspended due to the storm. Over 6 inches for nyc. what a joke - well at least you know how certain elected officials got their ill advised and undeserving jobs....its really a joke. Close schools now for monday...suspend sanitation....no mail service for a week...hard working, motivated folks should stay home on monday and not venture out into this dangerous storm. The only thing dangerous is the media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Gfs says game still on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Gfs says game still on. really warms me up at hr 30/ all other runs it had me in upper 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Gfs says game still on. definitely less snow for nyc metro than previous run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 what a joke - well at least you know how certain elected officials got their ill advised and undeserving jobs....its really a joke. Close schools now for monday...suspend sanitation....no mail service for a week...hard working, motivated folks should stay home on monday and not venture out into this dangerous storm. The only thing dangerous is the media. Unlike a couple years ago when they mentioned nothing about the coming xmas blizzard until the 11 pm news the night before. There was run after run of a monster storm and the hpc kept throwing out and dis-regarding them...that was a disgrace...i know anthony remembers that well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 really warms me up at hr 30/ all other runs it had me in upper 20s The thump of snow is still on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 definitely less snow for nyc metro than previous run.. Agreed def warmer.. Low placement isn't nearly as dramatic of a change tho as the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I've been dropping a degree an hour here in CNJ, down below 28 now. Radiational cooling. Not caa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This run changes orh to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This run changes orh to rain[/quote Orh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The thump of snow is still on yes but surface temps torch like the nam showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 So is this a 'miller b' or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This run changes orh to rain[/quote Orh? worchester, MA...HIGHLY unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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