Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I could see us not getting much at all during the day tomorrow-maybe an inch or less until the coastal stuff gets in here around sunset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I could see us not getting much at all during the day tomorrow-maybe an inch or less until the coastal stuff gets in here around sunset? Where are u? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Where are u? Coastal CT about 60 miles NE of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I could see us not getting much at all during the day tomorrow-maybe an inch or less until the coastal stuff gets in here around sunset? Yeah Storm At Sea and myself both referenced the sim radar for the NAM not looking great and the 12z SPC WRF had the same thing the HRRR now shows it's hard to say though after 16-17z with the overrunning what may happen, I think 20-01z may be when most accumulation is, Upton has 1/4SM +SN for all three airports starting at 21z but just 3-4 miles -SN before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yeah Storm At Sea and myself both referenced the sim radar for the NAM not looking great and the 12z SPC WRF had the same thing the HRRR now shows it's hard to say though after 16-17z with the overrunning what may happen, I think 20-01z may be when most accumulation is I agree especially for coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I could see us not getting much at all during the day tomorrow-maybe an inch or less until the coastal stuff gets in here around sunset? I think we would pick up an inch or two given how cold it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Coastal CT about 60 miles NE of NYC Hey Brian...i'm right next to you in trumbull...i'm thinking we get around 6 inches this storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I think we would pick up an inch or two given how cold it will be. I could see an inch, but I think Upton's high with their 2-4. Bet we get most of the accumulations in a short 3-4 hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hey Brian...i'm right next to you in trumbull...i'm thinking we get around 6 inches this storm.. I'm right near Exit 46 on the parkway so not far from you at all. (very northern part of the town of Fairfield) I'd agree, 6 give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'm right near Exit 46 on the parkway so not far from you at all. (very northern part of the town of Fairfield) I'd agree, 6 give or take. How much did you end up with in the big blizzard last year...i measured about 34 inches but there was so much drifting it was difficult to be real accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 How much did you end up with in the big blizzard last year...i measured about 34 inches but there was so much drifting it was difficult to be real accurate. 30 here. difficult to measure as well, but I think that's the real number give or take an inch or two up or down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Took until now for the NAM to realize it, but it is finally correcting towards the warmer Euro it seems with a stronger primary and weaker high pressure than the 18z run through 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 To be honest....let's think about it. I can EASILY see 4-6" of snow at least, around NYC/NE NJ....ahead of the heavy precip we still have several hours (maybe 5 or so) of light to moderate snow....falling into temps in the low 20s! That will be 2-3" before the heavy thump. If the heavy thump brings just a couple inches....it will still be 4-5"....if by chance if brings upwards of 5 inches somehow....we could see 6-8"....upton' forecast makes sense. We just aren't really thinking of anything except the storm during its peak and transitioning Your thoughts are potentially flawed with the amount you are expecting during the daylight hours tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hello all first time poster long time lurker. Just wanted to say i have learned so much from you guys and gals through the years, And I look forward to become a productive member of the group great work guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Ouch this NAM run is going to stink. Much warmer. Barely any precip into NYC by 7pm ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Ouch this NAM run is going to stink. Much warmer. Barely any precip into NYC by 7pm ! that was my point above-doubt we get much during the day tomorrow-dry air has to be eaten up and the precip coming from the west is from the dying primary--it's the developing coastal precip that gets us later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 that was my point above-doubt we get much during the day tomorrow-dry air has to be eaten up and the precip coming from the west is from the dying primary--it's the developing coastal precip that gets us later Then how are we even going to get 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'm right near Exit 46 on the parkway so not far from you at all. (very northern part of the town of Fairfield) I'd agree, 6 give or take. Ha, exit 48 off 15 or exit 9 off 25 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Nam is still a few inches for NYC before the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Ouch this NAM run is going to stink. Much warmer. Barely any precip into NYC by 7pm ! Cancel the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Nam is still a few inches for NYC before the rain better hope it's wrong, or the weenie suicides will be epic. Good thing it's the NAM, different solution every 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Lol well if we get NAMed into this being the reality....it'd cancel the major snowstorm for the entire area within a couple hundred miles of NYC lol. But funny how we can within minutes go from being disappinted about how we may get 2-4"....to hoping that we get 2-4";) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hah wow....this NAM run doesn't leave us feeling like we just missed....it's an inch or so of snow over to all rain with the low hugging the coast. The heavy snow band is set up not in our NW suburbs but WAY UP near saranac lake ! That's why we love the NAM. Consistency from run to run! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM hour 27 reflectivity KNYC sounding at 27 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Just curious i do not have access to the nam, But when the nam started off did it line up with where the low is currently on radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 first model that has me going over 32 and its actually way over at around 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 The surface low is sitting inland near Sandy Hook at 33 hours...998mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The surface low is sitting inland near Sandy Hook at 33 hours...998mb. Dryslot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 At 33 hours the 850mb low is tracking over Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It's probably best not to live and die by each run at this point... Especially the nam that 1 run ago had me getting 16" now 2-4" and rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.