UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I don't think my county (hudson county) should be under a WSW. We're too close to the boundary line. We should be under WWA for 2-5" I think and upgrade if needed. Anyones thoughts? Your on the boarder of 4-6/ 6-8 I would say that's warning level criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 William, good to hear from you - you are a good man! Our climo's are a bit different. You are lucky enough to a borderline SNE climo....while I have a C N climo LOL! And yes, Jan 2004 was absurdly cold. Maybe this January will bring some of that cold back over here, it seems like it would if the -EPO continues and cold air continues to build and deepen over Canada. Many out west have already seen some incredible cold thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think the internet is partially to blame. Growing up in the 80s and 90s I remember so many storms and we dealt with them and most were always fun to deal with. Now, with the media and the fear mongering from so many weather outlets, a minimal snow event has become a storm of the century. It actually takes the fun out of enjoying the weather. It doesn't help with TWC naming these storms like they're hurricanes.. It's ridicules, and many people unfortunately think TWC is the national weather service.. They're another media outlet looking for ratings.. A joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I really think this is going to be a snow to very heavy snow to a few hours of rain, then done. By the time it turns to rain I think most areas will have received 4-8 inches. 4 closer to NYC, 8 in NNJ. What has me a bit excited, as shown in the GFS, is the low moving a bit further SE....therefore we could get back end precip AND it could actually keep us snowing a bit longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 without looking at soundings....this storm is very reminiscent of the 1980's....snow to rain at the coast....Snow to ice inland....Orange county needs a cutter to do anything other than snow I assume....you should be fine, but I will divert to the real mets for forecasting I can see some areas especially the SE part of the county tainting with sleet.. But your right this looks like a predominate snow event for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I can see some areas especially the SE part of the county tainting with sleet.. But your right this looks like a predominate snow event for up here. Right that's why I'm curious where NWS sees a quarter in of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 without looking at soundings....this storm is very reminiscent of the 1980's....snow to rain at the coast....Snow to ice inland....Orange county needs a cutter to do anything other than snow I assume....you should be fine, but I will divert to the real mets for forecastingThis reminds me a lot of some of the late 1990s storms I grew up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It doesn't help with TWC naming these storms like they're hurricanes.. It's ridicules, and many people unfortunately think TWC is the national weather service.. They're another media outlet looking for ratings.. A joke I still can't forget Nemo from last season with the February storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Right that's why I'm curious where NWS sees a quarter in of ice Uptons entire forecast is against the grain and like I said overdone down here on the south shore. They are the experts though and I trust them more than any other private company so we shall see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This reminds me a lot of some of the late 1990s storms I grew up with. The 3 winters of 1996-97, 1997-98 & 1998-99 only produced one general snowstorm on the Island...March 1999...up to 11 inches around Kings Park. Oh yeah, the one that clipped the East End in February 1999...but was a miss most everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Right that's why I'm curious where NWS sees a quarter in of ice Look at their map.. Northern and western parts of the county have no ice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 To be honest....let's think about it. I can EASILY see 4-6" of snow at least, around NYC/NE NJ....ahead of the heavy precip we still have several hours (maybe 5 or so) of light to moderate snow....falling into temps in the low 20s! That will be 2-3" before the heavy thump. If the heavy thump brings just a couple inches....it will still be 4-5"....if by chance if brings upwards of 5 inches somehow....we could see 6-8"....upton' forecast makes sense. We just aren't really thinking of anything except the storm during its peak and transitioning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'll be happy with 2"! This december has been cold and awesome. I'd take a 2"er 2 days a week then one 20" storm i'll ya that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The gfs and Nam essentially give us at least a 0.5 of QPF of all snow, which should translate to slightly more snow than with the last event which was more like 0.3 QPF of snow. If 0.3 gave most 2-3", 0.5 is good for 3-5" although could easily translate to 4-6" with maybe higher ratios to start and those who get a tad more QPF as snow. Of course those further N&W get a bit more QPF as all snow so 6-8" are more probable though mid levels warm almost everywhere so I don't see anyone going above 8" within our area. Forecasts right now look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 If I had to guess now, I'd say : PHL : between 2 and 4" NYC : varies from south to north...but anywhere from 3 to 7" NE NJ : also varies from SE parts to NW parts of NE NJ....but anywhere from 5 to 9 inches Newark : 6.5" Oakland : 9" NW NJ : anywhere from 7 to 14 inches High Point state park : 13.5" Clinton : 7.5" BOS and suburbs : anywhere from 7 to 20"....obviously city 7" and deep into MA headed west the highest amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Uptons entire forecast is against the grain and like I said overdone down here on the south shore. They are the experts though and I trust them more than any other private company so we shall see what happens. They're taking a shot that the CAD holds in place much as it did in the last storm, I just think that the track of the low is going to be too close for it to do that, remember last storm the models showed winds going to 070-100 and it never really happened until about 12 hours after it was supposed to...if we do get a low track 50-75 miles SE of the majority of the model consensus right now we may see many areas near the coast stay completely frozen, probably not snow but sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 2&' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Just took a look at CIPS, top 3 storms are now 1/11/91, 1/8/99, and 1/10/09...none are spectacular matches but if you average the total snowfall near NYC for those 3 events you ironically get around 4-5 inches for the first 2 and significantly less for the 09 event but that one by far is the worst match of the 3, no real arctic high to induce overrunning and not a whole lot of snow in advance of the system...the previous 2 both had strong highs with overrunning in advance but the surface lows in both cases tracked well west of where they are going here...1/8/99 probably is a good match for 12z-00Z tomorrow with 1/11/91 being the better match thereafter....the 99 event had no real strong trough or energy before the surface low formation while the 1991 event did. Thereafter, I think we may see a surface low track similar to 1991 but probably more offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 OKX_Snow.png Any idea why the extreme cutoff for Sullivan county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Any idea why the extreme cutoff for Sullivan county? I think BGM is going with significantly lower totals there, Upton does not handle Sullivan county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I think BGM is going with significantly lower totals there, Upton does not handle Sullivan county. That's correct it is BGM .. my question is why are they going lower? I don't see it ..wondering if im missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I think BGM is going with significantly lower totals there, Upton does not handle Sullivan county. I thought they all coordinated with each other... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Just took a look at CIPS, top 3 storms are now 1/11/91, 1/8/99, and 1/10/09...none are spectacular matches but if you average the total snowfall near NYC for those 3 events you ironically get around 4-5 inches for the first 2 and significantly less for the 09 event but that one by far is the worst match of the 3,. here in the new brunswick/middlesex county area those events produced: 1/11/91.... 2.5" 1/8/99...... 3.2" 1/10/09.....1.0" meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I thought they all coordinated with each other... They do but I don't know how extensive the process is and I'm sure there are disagreements at times....I know we once saw an insane disparity between the ERN CT and WRN RI counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The HRRR again off to a hot start hitting the IN/IL precip well through 3 hours on its 22Z run,....here is its 16 hour forecast ending 13Z...still looks like we're 3-4 hours away fro,m anything steady at this point though some patchy areas of light snow may be around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The HRRR again off to a hot start hitting the IN/IL precip well through 3 hours on its 22Z run,....here is its 16 hour forecast ending 13Z...still looks like we're 3-4 hours away fro,m anything steady at this point though some patchy areas of light snow may be around It's been showing precip in the area around 8am but sure what's there will fall as virga till at least 9-10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The HRRR again off to a hot start hitting the IN/IL precip well through 3 hours on its 22Z run,....here is its 16 hour forecast ending 13Z...still looks like we're 3-4 hours away fro,m anything steady at this point though some patchy areas of light snow may be around is that 1pm or 8am (not sure if we deduct 5 hrs from that time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 is that 1pm or 8am (not sure if we deduct 5 hrs from that time) Def not 1pm... 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 is that 1pm or 8am (not sure if we deduct 5 hrs from that time) 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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