SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Upton's map. Cut back totals a bit StormTotalSnowFcst (1).png Still too high IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Can we get to 3 20 miles S of the Driscoll and 18 Miles Inland ? No sounding down our way , So kinda using surface , qpf and 850`s , looks close ha ha ha Desperate huh?? I feel your pain my man! ha ha ha Let's take our 2 inches and run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This may be on par to what I saw with the last event, maybe a touch more if we get over 3.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohnywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Going with warnings for the watch area and advisories elsewhere: ALL AREAS THAT HAD A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE CONVERTED TO AWINTER STORM WARNING...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTYIN THIS WARNING. HIGHEST SNOW/SLEET TOTALS WILL BE OVER THE NWCORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE 8 TO 11 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER AN ADVISORY FORNOW...HOWEVER...SOME OF THE ADVISORY ZONES BORDERING THE WARNING MAYNEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING SINCE IT IS SUCH A CLOSE CALL...ANDA RELATIVELY SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Can we get to 3 20 miles S of the Driscoll and 18 Miles Inland ? No sounding down our way , So kinda using surface , qpf and 850`s , looks close Use the nexlab model site. They have point and click soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 ha ha ha Desperate huh?? I feel your pain my man! ha ha ha Let's take our 2 inches and run! I agree , I thnk the lower end of Mt Holly for us is prob a good bet S of 78 , best we could hope for is a thump, and go , Good thing is if we get .40 inches of rain on top of 3 inches of snow at 35 F The pack may eat up some of that water , so its not washed away . Then u pray to be slotted . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 raised them on long island for some reason That looks overdone. I could maybe see 4" for places on the North Shore like Syosset and over toward Smithtown. So I'd guess I'd say 2-4" for Long Island, but most places more like 2". This is a North and West storm, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I agree , I thnk the lower end of Mt Holly for us is prob a good bet S of 78 , best we could hope for is a thump, and go , Good thing is if we get .40 inches of rain on top of 3 inches of snow at 35 F The pack may eat up some of that water , so its not washed away . Then u pray to be slotted . Yeah I was thinking the same thing. We'll still be in the mid 30's most likely so most of our pack should still be there come Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That looks overdone. I could maybe see 4" for places on the North Shore like Syosset and over toward Smithtown. So I'd guess I'd say 2-4" for Long Island, but most places more like 2". This is a North and West storm, unfortunately. The surface N of the LIE stay close to 0 c and the warm air gets it out at hr 36 , so they may get an xtra 3 hrs of Mod snow capable of putting down an xtra 2 on the n shore in Nassau and Western Suffolk . The 850 do race into central CT hr 36 plus by that time the damage maybe done and 60 plus perc ? for them may b frozen . I could see some spots there maxing out at 5 or so . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That looks overdone. I could maybe see 4" for places on the North Shore like Syosset and over toward Smithtown. So I'd guess I'd say 2-4" for Long Island, but most places more like 2". This is a North and West storm, unfortunately. yea... why they wouldn't just keep the 2-4 they had before,which may have been overdone a bit itself for places close to jfk i have to think they really don't think those totals are likely since no watches or anything... my updated point and click even mentions 0.1 of ice,which makes it even stranger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 yea...just wonder why they wouldn't just keep the 2-4 they had before,which may have been overdone a bit itself for places close to jfk i have to think they really don't think those totals are likely since no watches or anything... my updated point and click even mentions 0.1 of ice,which makes it even stranger Watches are going to be upgraded to warnings and advisories issued elsewhere shortly according to the discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What are wunderground's forecasts based on? Used to be from NWS....but not anymore. It gives me 10 inches near EWR yet only 5 inches NW lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 18z gfs is further se with transfer. No we shall see how close the track is to the coast. Hr 24-30 steady snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What are wunderground's forecasts based on? Used to be from NWS....but not anymore. It gives me 10 inches near EWR yet only 5 inches NW lol I never take them serious, they had snow totals posted for this storm 3 days ago lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 33 is still snow...but we are def warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nasty ice for nw jersey this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Watches are going to be upgraded to warnings and advisories issued elsewhere shortly according to the discussion yea,just got an advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 WWA for NYC and most of LI for 3-6" of snow WSW NW for 4-8" in NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On the 18z GFS, the surface torches... but at 6z Sunday, the 18z GFS has KNYC at 0.0 vs. 1.5 on the 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Does this GFS run give wraparound precip for NYC that is changed back to snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Ya the 18z GFS is pretty significantly cooler than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On the 18z GFS, the surface torches... but at 6z Sunday, the 18z GFS has KNYC at 0.0 vs. 1.5 on the 12z... Torches who ? N/S county and coastal NJ with 40 degrees , yes once to the city and to the tpke out to 36 hrs its 0c and th 850 line is strung across the Bronx. what are talking about , everyone else is below 0c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The reference to KNYC... I thought was clear. Apologies, if it was not. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/131213214924.gif Torches who ? N/S county and coastal NJ with 40 degrees , yes once to the city and to the tpke out to 36 hrs its 0c and th 850 line is strung across the Bronx. what are talking about , everyone else is below 0c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Does this GFS run give wraparound precip for NYC that is changed back to snow ? hard to get wrap around precip with no closed mid- level centers of low pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 New GFS plays out like this...for most of the area away from immediate coast and east of NYC Steady Light snow from about 8-9am through 5pm Mod/Heavy Snow from about 5pm through 11pm-12am Sleet/Ice from 12am - 3am Looks like should spit out a good 4-8" for most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 At hr 30 the 0c line is strung from Islip down to just west of Asbury Park NJ and into SCNJ , Hour 36 , we get above freezing but prob just to the River and down through CNJ , but by that time the front 2/3rds of the system maybe frozen for a lot as per the 18z - And im referring to pp just S of 78 , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The reference to KNYC... I thought was clear. Apologies, if it was not. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/131213214924.gif All good my man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 At hr 30 the 0c line is strung from Islip down to just west of Asbury Park NJ and into SCNJ , Hour 36 , we get above freezing but prob just to the River and down through CNJ , but by that time the front 2/3rds of the system maybe frozen for a lot as per the 18z - And im referring to pp just S of 78 , Hopefully the GFS is finally coming back to reality temp-wise. Good to see it's getting colder for longer down by our region. Maybe we can hold onto frozen/snow until late evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The gfs looks a bit colder than the precious run, things could still tick a little colder at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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