NEG NAO Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My write up http://noreasterwarn.blogspot.com/2013/12/winter-storm-this-weekend.html IMO your all or mostly rain line is way to north - they will have snow to start and because of the snowcover and colder daytime temps they will have accumulations there all the way to the beach except from AC south along the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If the RGEM is right on how strong it's CAD signature is then it's entirely possible nobody but Long Island is ever going above 32 What about 925, 850s, etc?. screw the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 IMO your all or mostly rain line is way to north - they will have snow to start and because of the snowcover and colder daytime temps they will have accumulations there all the way to the beach except from AC south along the immediate coast I expect them to start as snow/ice, but change over in a few hours. On another forum I am on, all the members are saying the opposite!! Thanks for the feedback, I really appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I expect them to start as snow/ice, but change over in a few hours. On another forum I am on, all the members are saying the opposite!! Thanks for the feedback, I really appreciate it! This forum > all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I expect them to start as snow/ice, but change over in a few hours. On another forum I am on, all the members are saying the opposite!! Thanks for the feedback, I really appreciate it! you are welcome - I still think the forecast is not written in stone and we shouldn't underestimate this arctic air and its staying power - will be a real battle zone somewhere in the tri state region both aloft and at the surface and I believe someone is going to have one heck of an ice event - right now that area looks like north central NJ in the somerville / flemington/watchung areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What about 925, 850s, etc?. screw the surface. Those are going above freezing for sure but there may be more FZRA problems for the 5 boroughs in this event than many currently think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 KALB mentioned shadowing in the Hudson valley and taconics, what do you guys think? (I have bad memories of shadowing...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 KALB mentioned shadowing in the Hudson valley and taconics, what do you guys think? (I have bad memories of shadowing...) What is shadowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 KALB mentioned shadowing in the Hudson valley and taconics, what do you guys think? (I have bad memories of shadowing...) I don know much about the effect but I'd imagine if there are decent east winds from 850-950 it's bound to be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Those are going above freezing for sure but there may be more FZRA problems for the 5 boroughs in this event than many currently think Sure, but I mean how much precip before the precip isn't frozen before contact on the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What is shadowing?+1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What is shadowing? I'd rather let a promet explain, but it is when winds perpendicular to a valley cut off the precip from hitting the ground. It is the snow scrooge of the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 In New Paltz, near Poughkeepsie, looking for 4-8" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What is shadowing? This concerns downsloping...as air sinks...it warms, dries, and compresses...thus clouds and moisture tend to dry up...the opposite is an upslope flow...as air is lifted...it cools & condenses...and clouds and precip form or are enhanced. That is why it is generally wetter on a mountaintop than in a valley...and why mountains cast a so called rain shadow when they stand between a valley and the prevailing wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This concerns downsloping...as air sinks...it warms, dries, and compresses...thus clouds and moisture tend to dry up...the opposite is an upslope flow...as air is lifted...it cools & condenses...and clouds and precip form or are enhanced. That is why it is generally wetter on a mountaintop than in a valley...and why mountains cast a so called rain shadow when they stand between a valley and the prevailing wind. The best example of this in the Hudson Valley was on December 12, 1992...when Albany...low in the Hudson Valley...experienced downsloping NE winds off the Taconics and Berkshires and got less than 8 inches of snow from a storm that produced greater than 40 inches one county over in the high spots of the Berkshires in western Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Continue discussion of the storm in this thread. Please refrain from useless posts and arguing. Also, I wrote an article and compiled a snowfall forecast here. Always enjoy your posts and write-ups, but my work firewall is blocking your site - any chance you could give a quick description of your forecast, especially for central Jersey. I'm in Metuchen, about 10 miles south of you - we tend to go over to rain around the same time as NYC does, i.e., Manhattan or maybe Brooklyn, and definitely before you do in Scotch Plains (I'm only at 100' elevation and closer to the Raritan Bay). I'm kind of expecting 2-3" of snow, then some sleet, then a fair amount of rain. My hope is that we'll still have at least half of the snow that fell Tuesday on the ground and that that, combined with the 2-3" we might get on Saturday, will be enough to hold at least another 0.3-0.4" of rain, without major melting (making slush the equivalent of a 5:1 ratio snow), especially if we don't go well above 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This concerns downsloping...as air sinks...it warms, dries, and compresses...thus clouds and moisture tend to dry up...the opposite is an upslope flow...as air is lifted...it cools & condenses...and clouds and precip form or are enhanced. That is why it is generally wetter on a mountaintop than in a valley...and why mountains cast a so called rain shadow when they stand between a valley and the prevailing wind. Ah I see now, so this mostly affect those in the hudson valley and nw Nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think generally if NYC sees snow with a storm it doesn't bode well for ALB because it's either a coastal that us took far offshore or it's one if these SWFEs with east winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 ^I am no where near KALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Models aren't showing this but NOAA seems to think there's a small shot this could happen MEANWHILE...FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...A SEPARATE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE DIGGING A MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IF THIS SYSTEM WERE TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STORM...THIS COULD BE AN EPIC STORM A LOT LIKE THE STORM LAST FEBRUARY THAT BURIED OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 21z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Models aren't showing this but NOAA seems to think there's a small shot this could happen MEANWHILE...FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...A SEPARATE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE DIGGING A MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IF THIS SYSTEM WERE TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STORM...THIS COULD BE AN EPIC STORM A LOT LIKE THE STORM LAST FEBRUARY THAT BURIED OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. LMAO. C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 LMAO. C'mon. Not saying I believed it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 +1 I have heard the term 'rain shadow' and I believe it is in reference to the effect of lift of air on one side of a mountain chain (wringing out more moisture) and then that same parcel of air coming down the other side carrying less moisture - plus the physics of increasing pressure on the air as it descends - drying it out. A great example is in the Sierras - the western parts of that chain get an obscene amount of moisture, while to the east their is usually a dessert - even in Oregon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Does anyone see this.....it seems the initial heavier bursts of snow stay towards PHL/SNJ like they had last week? As depicted by at least the NAM like last time....it shows us all well below freezing as the precip enters and during the initial batch....but the heavier precip is south of NYC....and them once the warm air comes into the picture....it heads north and affects all areas. I think S/CNJ could get a surprise 3-6" again, while NE NJ gets 1-3 and NW NJ north get hit fairly hard 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Does anyone see this.....it seems the initial heavier bursts of snow stay towards PHL/SNJ like they had last week? As depicted by at least the NAM like last time....it shows us all well below freezing as the precip enters and during the initial batch....but the heavier precip is south of NYC....and them once the warm air comes into the picture....it heads north and affects all areas. I think S/CNJ could get a surprise 3-6" again, while NE NJ gets 1-3 and NW NJ north get hit fairly hard 6-12" According to the latest forecast discussion fron NWS they still don't have enough confidence of a 6" storm and think its an advisory level event lol...it always amazed me that they can put out a map or a synopsis then completely contradict themselves in a forecast discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I like the look of the NAM so far at 30hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nam looks colder with the primary further south at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Dang. Heavy snow in Bergen by 54 hours. City looks like it has mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Wow. Obviously to be taken w/ a grain of salt, but what was great to see was how amped the NAM was early in the run. Also, is this the NAM doing it's way overdone precip start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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