December 14-15 Winter Storm Part Two

[Stormlover74]

This is going a ways back but doesn't anyone have or remember the 1/11/91 storm? I remember it being very cold at the start, we had a good 5-7" before mixing. We had a lull for a few hours and then heavy rain overnight as temps rose into the 30s. I don't remember if it was a Miller B or not but seems like a similar amount of snow with heavy rain on the backend.

[Kaner587]

Euro is definitely snowier than 00z for immediate NYC metro. Temps probably warm dramatically as precip shuts off too.

[wxman9]

what's a wxbell? why do people look at it when they have soundings?

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

what's a wxbell? why do people look at it when they have soundings?

A website run by super weenies lol

Srry I'm not a fan of JB

[BlizzardWarning]

The transfer to the coast occurs at the time when the heaviest precipitation starts to fall in New York and New Jersey.  New York and those places that are along I95 will all turn to rain, but I have a sneaky suspicion that the surface freezing line will halt to the west.  Southeastern Bergen County and New York City will change over after a few hours of sleep.  However, Sleet may hold out  in Bergen county for about 4-5 hours and then the Wintry Mix line will rest along the Ramapo Hills.  Seen quick moving storms like this produce inches of sleet and then changeover to rains for an hour or two at the end when I lived in Paramus. 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

The transfer to the coast occurs at the time when the heaviest precipitation starts to fall in New York and New Jersey. New York and those places that are along I95 will all turn to rain, but I have a sneaky suspicion that the surface freezing line will halt to the west. Southeastern Bergen County and New York City will change over after a few hours of sleep. However, Sleet may hold out in Bergen county for about 4-5 hours and then the Wintry Mix line will rest along the Ramapo Hills. Seen quick moving storms like this produce inches of sleet and then changeover to rains for an hour or two at the end when I lived in Paramus.

How did the Hudson valley make out on this run? I'm assuming not much changed

[Guest Imperator]

JFK is above freezing (2.7C)by 0z Sunday per the Euro with .29" of precip prior to that. From 0z to 6z it warms to 6.9C with .68 of precip ( assuming rain mostly):

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: JFK LAT= 40.65 LON= -73.78 ELE= 23

12Z DEC13

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

FRI 12Z 13-DEC -1.6 -11.1 1022 57 94 0.00 543 526

FRI 18Z 13-DEC 1.3 -7.3 1021 57 68 0.00 547 530

SAT 00Z 14-DEC 0.7 -8.1 1025 60 69 0.00 552 532

SAT 06Z 14-DEC -1.3 -8.8 1029 67 81 0.00 554 532

SAT 12Z 14-DEC -2.2 -8.4 1031 72 92 0.01 555 531

SAT 18Z 14-DEC -1.4 -8.3 1030 84 97 0.07 554 531

SUN 00Z 15-DEC 2.7 -5.1 1023 86 98 0.21 555 536

SUN 06Z 15-DEC 6.9 3.6 1008 95 100 0.68 554 548

SUN 12Z 15-DEC 2.3 3.9 1003 90 51 0.33 548 545

SUN 18Z 15-DEC 3.1 -1.6 1004 78 37 0.00 543 540

MON 00Z 16-DEC 3.7 -7.3 1010 73 33 0.00 543 535

MON 06Z 16-DEC 0.1 -7.5 1012 77 70 0.00 540 531

MON 12Z 16-DEC -3.2 -12.7 1015 75 3 0.00 538 526

MON 18Z 16-DEC -2.2 -14.3 1019 58 5 0.00 538 523

TUE 00Z 17-DEC -4.6 -12.1 1025 64 4 0.00 542 523

[MJO812]

Euro is definitely snowier than 00z for immediate NYC metro. Temps probably warm dramatically as precip shuts off too.

That's what happens. It only rains for a couple of hours.

[jm1220]

JFK is above freezing (2.7C)by 0z Sunday per the Euro with .29" of precip prior to that. From 0z to 6z it warms to 6.9C with .68 of precip ( assuming rain mostly):

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: JFK LAT= 40.65 LON= -73.78 ELE= 23

12Z DEC13

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

FRI 12Z 13-DEC -1.6 -11.1 1022 57 94 0.00 543 526

FRI 18Z 13-DEC 1.3 -7.3 1021 57 68 0.00 547 530

SAT 00Z 14-DEC 0.7 -8.1 1025 60 69 0.00 552 532

SAT 06Z 14-DEC -1.3 -8.8 1029 67 81 0.00 554 532

SAT 12Z 14-DEC -2.2 -8.4 1031 72 92 0.01 555 531

SAT 18Z 14-DEC -1.4 -8.3 1030 84 97 0.07 554 531

SUN 00Z 15-DEC 2.7 -5.1 1023 86 98 0.21 555 536

SUN 06Z 15-DEC 6.9 3.6 1008 95 100 0.68 554 548

SUN 12Z 15-DEC 2.3 3.9 1003 90 51 0.33 548 545

SUN 18Z 15-DEC 3.1 -1.6 1004 78 37 0.00 543 540

MON 00Z 16-DEC 3.7 -7.3 1010 73 33 0.00 543 535

MON 06Z 16-DEC 0.1 -7.5 1012 77 70 0.00 540 531

MON 12Z 16-DEC -3.2 -12.7 1015 75 3 0.00 538 526

MON 18Z 16-DEC -2.2 -14.3 1019 58 5 0.00 538 523

TUE 00Z 17-DEC -4.6 -12.1 1025 64 4 0.00 542 523

Ouch. Whatever falls will almost certainly be completely washed away/melted if that's correct.

[SnoSki14]

Whether we get some snow and it melts away by Sunday or sometimes next week, it will melt away no matter what when the torch days come in so I'll take a couple of inches because it'll be nice to see. 

 

Somewhat warmer today than expected, wonder if that has any implications especially since it ended up being a bit warmer with the past snow event. 

[HailMan06]

wXBell map shows 6+ just to the west of NYC. Shows 3-6 for NYC.

Stop referencing WxBell/Euro maps. They should never be used in marginal events such as this.

[NycStormChaser]

wXBell map shows 6+ just to the west of NYC. Shows 3-6 for NYC.

Enough about weatherbell . I believe there is a vendor thread for that.

[Heavy Snow Warning]

I had always assumed that this storm was going to be a typical I-84 special.  Around there, mostly snow eventually going to some sleet and freezing drizzle right at the end.  To the north snow, to the south snow, to sleet to frezing rain, and rain to the coast.  The models have hopped around for days now, but modelology never replaces meterology.  It always seems in this kind of set up that no matter what a model will say, the coast winds up with a few inches of slop and then goes to rain.I am willing to bet there will be a nice baloon on accumulations from extreme NW NJ through mid Orange to dutchess and NW CT to Mass.

[jm1220]

I had always assumed that this storm was going to be a typical I-84 special.  Around there, mostly snow eventually going to some sleet and freezing drizzle right at the end.  To the north snow, to the south snow, to sleet to frezing rain, and rain to the coast.  The models have hopped around for days now, but modelology never replaces meterology.  It always seems in this kind of set up that no matter what a model will say, the coast winds up with a few inches of slop and then goes to rain.I am willing to bet there will be a nice baloon on accumulations from extreme NW NJ through mid Orange to dutchess and NW CT to Mass.

That's about what I believe. Someone in that corridor could see 10-12".

[Guest Imperator]

Ouch. Whatever falls will almost certainly be completely washed away/melted if that's correct.

 

 

This is one of those storms where the south shore of Bklyn, Queens, Nassau and Suffolk (aka Long Island) winds up with the least snow with it potentially getting all washed away with the changeover. It could be the case that the south shore sees 2" and Central Park gets 4-6".  

[mob1]

Whether we get some snow and it melts away by Sunday or sometimes next week, it will melt away no matter what when the torch days come in so I'll take a couple of inches because it'll be nice to see.

Somewhat warmer today than expected, wonder if that has any implications especially since it ended up being a bit warmer with the past snow event.

With the high settling to our north we should see the temperatures and DP's drop nicely tonight, we should be fine if we're something like 24/16 in the morning. There's also some kind of front on upstate NY but I have no clue if that's going to impact our temperatures later.

[PB GFI]

That's what happens. It only rains for a couple of hours.

Prob not if ur in Brooklyn for this one. One third prob frozen the rest wet. Not ur storm ant

[jm1220]

Prob not if ur in Brooklyn for this one. One third prob frozen the rest wet. Not ur storm ant

I'd say on the immediate south shore we're in for 2-3". Anything above 3", consider a huge bonus. Still 50-50 chance at 4" at Central Park.

[Absolute Humidity]

Prob not if ur in Brooklyn for this one. One third prob frozen the rest wet. Not ur storm ant

Nor ours. Few wet flakes then cold rain.

[mulen]

The prince of darkness along the coast is wind direction east is least west is best most of the time just my obs.I guess being on the water all these years piloting boats rubs off.SST's are marginal this time of the year and have  a big impact on coastal storms, been screwed to many times than i care to count computer models are only one tool in forecasting.

[Allsnow]

This is one of those storms where the south shore of Bklyn, Queens, Nassau and Suffolk (aka Long Island) winds up with the least snow with it potentially getting all washed away with the changeover. It could be the case that the south shore sees 2" and Central Park gets 4-6".  

 

agree with this…and ewr comes out with the most snowfall out of the big 4

[PB GFI]

I'd say on the immediate south shore we're in for 2-3". Anything above 3", consider a huge bonus. Still 50-50 chance at 4" at Central Park.

The Euro is the warmest of the 12z suites , but it looks right to me  , once  that mid level warmth punches  through  people will go from 29 to 34 in 2 hours and will transition immediately

I think  2 inch snow totals on all the south facing shores including the 5 boroughs is a good bet . The rest followed by a half an inch of rain .  Im hoping

for 2 inches of snow in Colts neck followed by dry air  , but Christmas aint comin early .

[Guest Imperator]

agree with this…and ewr comes out with the most snowfall out of the big 4

 

 

It will be interesting if Upton utilizes their split NYC/Long Island borough/county zones to issue a WWA just for the north portions or make it clean ans do a WWA for everyone in NYC/LI.

[Guest Imperator]

The Euro is the warmest of the 12z suites , but it looks right to me  , once  that mid level warmth punches  through  people will go from 29 to 34 in 2 hours and will transition immediately

I think  2 inch snow totals on all the south facing shores including the 5 boroughs is a good bet . The rest followed by a half an inch of rain .  Im hoping

for 2 inches of snow in Colts neck followed by dry air  , but Christmas aint comin early .

 

 

I think the GFS was in fact warmer, for JFK at least.

[Allsnow]

It will be interesting if Upton utilizes their split NYC/Long Island borough/county zones to issue a WWA just for the north portions or make it clean ans do a WWA for everyone in NYC/LI.

 

 

Have they ever split it like that? I have seen it done down here for monmouth county, but just for wwa. i believe they may have done it during 2-6-10 for Brooklyn?

[mob1]

Upton has split Brooklyn and Queens many times during marginal events.

[jm1220]

It will be interesting if Upton utilizes their split NYC/Long Island borough/county zones to issue a WWA just for the north portions or make it clean ans do a WWA for everyone in NYC/LI.

It wouldn't surprise me in this case that they only issue it for the northern Long Island zones. But judging by the snow map (likely overdone for Long Island), they may issue it for the whole island except Eastern Suffolk.

[MJO812]

Latest RPM still shows a solid snowfall for NYC.

[PB GFI]

I've seen 6 in laurel hollow on the north shore of long island and 2 in long beach in my life. Happens

[ag3]

I've seen 6 in laurel hollow on the north shore of long island and 2 in long beach in my life. Happens

 

I've seen 5" in Bayside and 0-1" in the JFK area.

Happened in January of 2009 and many more times before.