Blizzardo Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not even close to a ku. That is just ridiculous to call it so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The GFS agrees with the Euro and RGEM on a 2-4 inch event around the City and Nassau. The GFS may be overdone with the rain amounts as the RGEM isn't as juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It really is all about the surface wind direction for us. That's another difference maker on the NAM-it keeps a NE/ENE wind direction in NYC, and keeps the snow in place longer, at least until the mid level warm air arrives-buying another hour or two. The GFS gets much warmer at the surface (probably too warm-it torches all the way through SNE as well) and ends the snow too early for any really significant accumulation. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think they get dinged on their verification if they issue a Watch and then only issue an advisory in the end, but for a metro area with 20 million people that rule should not apply, people see no watch for the 5 boroughs and they figure it won't be that bad. Does the general public even know the difference? The idiot DJ on 101.1 just broadcasted that the whole area was under a watch except for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This isn't going to be a KU but this is going to be a big snowfall for a lot of the areas to the north and west of the City. The KU book has a section devoted to Near Miss storms-this will likely qualify as one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This isn't going to be a KU but this is going to be a big snowfall for a lot of the areas to the north and west of the City. This isn't a KU for the city but it is just west of the I-95 corridor. The heavy snow will be accumulating all the way up into eastern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Most of what falls east of the city is probably going to get washed away with a GFS solution. Hopefully the NAM scores one. Most of us up here here would love for the NAM to score one but I think the reality is the NAM is too wet and too cold. Wouldn't be surprised to see the NAM start chipping away at its totals at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I agree, it seems like some winters they are very reluctant to issue the watches. I think they get dinged on their verification if they issue a Watch and then only issue an advisory in the end, but for a metro area with 20 million people that rule should not apply, people see no watch for the 5 boroughs and they figure it won't be that bad. We don't get dinged in our verification for issuing a watch and then only issuing an advisory, verification is only based off the issuances of warnings. Watches are issued when the forecaster has 50% or higher confidence in reaching warning criteria snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Most of us up here here would love for the NAM to score one but I think the reality is the NAM is too wet and too cold. Wouldn't be surprised to see the NAM start chipping away at its totals at 18z. The NAM has been notorious for having insane 18Z QPF runs before storms, don't be shocked if it drops 2 feet on someone today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Heavy snow alone does not make it a ku event. Unless you start getting to the 15-18 neighborhood IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The NAM has been notorious for having insane 18Z QPF runs before storms, don't be shocked if it drops 2 feet on someone today. That's very true... But there's also been plenty of times the nam nails the Qpf but the location is off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 We still have about a half inch of ice/snow on the ground up this way. I'm sure some areas have more. I wonder what effect that will have if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Heavy snow alone does not make it a ku event. Correct, people must remember the equation used takes into account overall impact in a wide area, amounts of snow/ ice over the area and amount of people affected. A few states getting a foot or two of snow doesnt constitute a KU. 96', 93', 03' etc. are prime examples of how the KU system works. Those storms dumped copious amounts of snow over a wide swath of the US and caused problems for millions upon millions of people in the US both economically and personally. This event is a quick hitting inland storm that will cause signifigan icing/snowfall in some places but not over a "wide" area of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The 12Z SPC WRF overall is not impressive on the radar echoes from 15-23Z, more or less very light snow, the NAM has hinted at this to an extent as well, partly why the coastal areas may be closer to 2 inches than 4 unless between 00 and 03z it can come down very hard and hold off the mid-level warmth a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z GGEM almost identical to its 00z run.. Areas north and west of NYC get hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z GGEM almost identical to its 00z run.. Areas north and west of NYC get hammered What's the total for our county with the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z GGEM almost identical to its 00z run.. Areas north and west of NYC get hammered This is gonna be a 6-10" storm for us unless the NAM verifies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What's the total for our county with the GGEM? Looks to be at least 8-10"with some mixing as far north as Orange County but only for a brief period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z GGEM almost identical to its 00z run.. Areas north and west of NYC get hammered assuming your talking a good 50+ miles or is it a tighter gradient than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z GGEM almost identical to its 00z run.. Areas north and west of NYC get hammered How far north and west? THat can be 10 miles out or 40 miles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Just noticed (very late) that NWS issued a WSW for Eastern Bergen but not across the river to Manhattan. Interesting. Yup, I said earlier to JSantana that I've seen the R/S line setup on the Hudson River before and it happened not too long ago. I have thought all along that this particular system had for part of this storm the potential to have the Hudson River as the R/S line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Bill Evans mentions at noon forecast " precip should be done by 7am Sunday " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Anybody north and west of NYC stand a good chance at 6"+ snow anybody (like me) south and east of NYC a slushy couple inches before the warm air floods the coastal plain. Enjoy what ever you get though. Its december 12th and our second snow threat of the season isnt too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 assuming your talking a good 50+ miles or is it a tighter gradient than that? My area of Orange County is about 65 miles north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Bill Evans mentions at noon forecast " precip should be done by 7am Sunday " Sounds about right.. Looks like were gonna get most out accumulation between 2-10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'll take it especially after getting snuffed the last 3 waves lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looks good, John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Anybody north and west of NYC stand a good chance at 6"+ snow anybody (like me) south and east of NYC a slushy couple inches before the warm air floods the coastal plain. Enjoy what ever you get though. Its december 12th and our second snow threat of the season isnt too shabby What about North and East - i.e. upper Fairfield County? Hard time to get opinions for this area both here and in the New England forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 2-5.. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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