SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think the low level cold will be considerably more impressive than the models show and I worry about ZR. There's no doubt the mid levels will warm way up, but temps could be stubborn at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not saying this is exactly what's going to happen with this event because the WAA surge appears to be a bit stronger but 2/22/08 is a good example of a coastal hugger during a +AO that produced a good front end thump before the change to rain for the coast.http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2008/us0222.php#picturehttp://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm02222008.html I was in Stony Brook on Long Island for that event and the question was how much snow before the changeover. Ended up being the biggest storm of that winter and very minimal rain at the end. I could see something like this happening. WAA precip moves in faster and stronger than forecasted, and we get dryslotted just as the temperatures start going above freezing, That could be best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 You get used to it. We just remind ourselves that we do pretty well considering we are on an island in the Atlantic. Find me an inhabited island south of Maine with more snowfall. At least that's what we tell ourselves Ha! Well put and I concur! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z NAM text numbers for those interested. First number is snow, second is ZR KMMU - 8.7" 0.32" KHPN - 9.2" 0.23" KSWF - 12.0" 0.05" KISP - 4.4" 0.00" KLGA - 7.4" 0.15" KEWR - 8.2" 0.25" KJFK - 6.7" 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 well i am 10 or so miles north of I-287.... so even on the GFS i make out OK... in the range of 4-8 or so inches Depends what county you're in. Rockland County flips to IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 RGEM looks spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 900-950 above freezing layer just south of JFK at 7pm Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 RGEM looks spot on. I agree, I think its probably 2-3 hours too quick on its precip transition times but it generally is for whatever reason along with the GGEM...otherwise it looks good, it also has a more legit start time I think, the NAM/GFS to me seem a bit slow getting the precipitation in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Doest take a lot for the model surface interpretation to be off by 2 or 3 F , thats not impossible . Is a very big difference between Rain and FRZ for immediate surrounding burbs . The mid layer punch is prob strong enough - coming in over 50 degree water , Honorable mention , clipper next Tues , maybe we tidy up the canvas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yep. I also think the GFS is too aggressive with the warm punch. From my experience, Sussex County normally stays snow in these events...I just don't see 850 mb getting above 0C like the GFS shows. GFS also brings warm punch through all of Massachusetts...again, don't see Worchester going to rain as well. I agree, I think its probably 2-3 hours too quick on its precip transition times but it generally is for whatever reason along with the GGEM...otherwise it looks good, it also has a more legit start time I think, the NAM/GFS to me seem a bit slow getting the precipitation in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Bergen/Rockland freezing rain jackpot on the GFS with a more significant max over SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I agree, I think its probably 2-3 hours too quick on its precip transition times but it generally is for whatever reason along with the GGEM...otherwise it looks good, it also has a more legit start time I think, the NAM/GFS to me seem a bit slow getting the precipitation in. What does the RGEM have for start times...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What does the RGEM have for start times...? It probably starts snowing in the area from TTN north 15-16Z on the RGEM, likely still too late, the NWS is hedging on this event early too because their TAFs at the major airports all show a 12Z start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The city and NE NJ both flip to plain rain between hours 39 and 42. soundings my area have hr 39 all snow and not even close, hr 42 i get above 32(.7) at 900 and .1 at 850. so it most likely is snowing at least to hr 41. thiose are two big hrs to be snowing since thats when the heavy precip is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 how many times have you been told the maps are not correct and yet you still post about them? Stop talking about the maps and actually analyze the model and what it is saying. Please look at soundings and ignore the clown maps, which each have different algorithms and techniques for capturing snowfall (some, like Weatherbell, which are completely weenie-driven). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I will say this folks...I think it's time to get off this freezing rain train. Just like the algorithms are crappy for the clown maps, I normally have about 10% confidence in the ZR algorithms. This is NOT a classic ZR setup; not even close. More likely than not, the ZR QPF will likely fall as pure rain. Folks have to realize that NWS has a specific checklist/criteria (normally geographically) that raises concerns...I don't get the sense at all that we will meet the various criteria to set up a ZR event anywhere. I know it's long range, but folks worrying about laying down snowfall for Christmas with this event...it's not going to happen anywhere for the East Coast on this event. Even places that receive 1 foot from this event are going to torch around 12/21. The indices are very indicative of a significant warmup for 1-2 days as the -EPO reloads and the PNA plummets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 soundings my area have hr 39 all snow and not even close, hr 42 i get above 32(.7) at 900 and .1 at 850. so it most likely is snowing at least to hr 41. thiose are two big hrs to be snowing since thats when the heavy precip is falling. You live like 7 miles from me, we do fine. I think anyone north of I-80 and west of say Rt. 46 stay all frozen or freezing. Now moderate rain with temps of 31-32 isn't going accumulate like it would with temps in the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z NAM text numbers for those interested. First number is snow, second is ZR KMMU - 8.7" 0.32" KHPN - 9.2" 0.23" KSWF - 12.0" 0.05" KISP - 4.4" 0.00" KLGA - 7.4" 0.15" KEWR - 8.2" 0.25" KJFK - 6.7" 0.00" Don't see any ZR for SWF or MGJ... Warm layer is around 800-850mb. NAM verbatim is a 10-14" dump followed by some IP then ending as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I will say this folks...I think it's time to get off this freezing rain train. Just like the algorithms are crappy for the clown maps, I normally have about 10% confidence in the ZR algorithms. This is NOT a classic ZR setup; not even close. More likely than not, the ZR QPF will likely fall as pure rain. Folks have to realize that NWS has a specific checklist/criteria (normally geographically) that raises concerns...I don't get the sense at all that we will meet the various criteria to set up a ZR event anywhere. I know it's long range, but folks worrying about laying down snowfall for Christmas with this event...it's not going to happen anywhere for the East Coast on this event. Even places that receive 1 foot from this event are going to torch around 12/21. The indices are very indicative of a significant warmup for 1-2 days as the -EPO reloads and the PNA plummets. How could the ZR threat not be real in the I-287 corridor? HPC beating the ZR drum hard These probs are for 0.25" or greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Don't see any ZR for SWF or MGJ... Warm layer is around 800-850mb. NAM verbatim is a 10-14" dump followed by some IP then ending as snow. My numbers show 0.05" ZR at SWF but that's just semantics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The 1 hr ZR probs based on the analogs are through the roof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I hate to say it, but it's lazy forecasting...they are just painting up the SREF's. I'm not saying there won't be reports of ZR...my point being, we are not going to see 0.25 in of ZR (ie widespread tree destruction). No doubt, we will see reports of ZR. How could the ZR threat not be real in the I-287 corridor? HPC beating the ZR drum hard These probs are for 0.25" or greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My numbers show 0.05" ZR at SWF but that's just semantics. Look at the soundings... Solidly below freezing all the way up to 825mb @ hr 42 & 875mb @ hr 45. That is a sleet signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Agree 100%. This more dynamic setup is not conducive to a wide spread freezing rain situation. It's snow or rain with a mainly narrow but noticable sleet transition area. I will say this folks...I think it's time to get off this freezing rain train. Just like the algorithms are crappy for the clown maps, I normally have about 10% confidence in the ZR algorithms. This is NOT a classic ZR setup; not even close. More likely than not, the ZR QPF will likely fall as pure rain. Folks have to realize that NWS has a specific checklist/criteria (normally geographically) that raises concerns...I don't get the sense at all that we will meet the various criteria to set up a ZR event anywhere. I know it's long range, but folks worrying about laying down snowfall for Christmas with this event...it's not going to happen anywhere for the East Coast on this event. Even places that receive 1 foot from this event are going to torch around 12/21. The indices are very indicative of a significant warmup for 1-2 days as the -EPO reloads and the PNA plummets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Any soundings on GFS yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Agree 100%. This more dynamic setup is not conducive to a wide spread freezing rain situation. It's snow or rain with a mainly narrow but noticable sleet transition area. Idk about that, there's a primary to coastal transition with some CAD in place, it may not be ideal but I don't think it's as cut and dry as some make it out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I did relay the correct info based on the source that I have. Lets just get back to the storm... I think north of a line from West Milford, Stony Point, Yorktown Heights receives > 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I didn't even post the actual clown map, just relayed what it shows and I get attacked. Plenty of other posters have posted maps numerous times. >4" snow probs show a tight gradiant as you get down to Essex County and eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Lets just get back to the storm... I think north of a line from West Milford, Stony Point, Yorktown Heights receives > 8" Agreed, I was shocked to see you of all people call me out on giving bad information. We're both usually on the same page. One of the systems from 2010, I think February 2010 produced only 6" of wet cement for my backyard yet in Butler they received over a foot and in West Milford they had close to two feet. I could see a similar setup with this. The 4k NAM shows the highest totals on a line from Butler, up through Vernon and West Milford and then up into Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The 1 hr ZR probs based on the analogs are through the roof I will trust our mets alot more than those.people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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