Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 33 12z gfs light to mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Can a Christmas miracle happen? and we actually stay all frozen? You might stay all frozen but NYC won't. East winds in December are the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 36 mod snow for area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 RGEM FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 39 heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is a classic Long Island/coastal plain frustration event. You get used to it. We just remind ourselves that we do pretty well considering we are on an island in the Atlantic. Find me an inhabited island south of Maine with more snowfall. At least that's what we tell ourselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 RGEM FWIW rgem_snow_acc_nyc_17 (1).png This actually looks pretty realistic to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 39 heavy snow Pretty sure by 36 KNYC southward and eastward is over to rain on the GFS and certainly by 39 with ice and snow a good distance to the west in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 39 heavy snow I guess after this..is rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 we can only hope the rain isn't heavy enough to wash away most of the snow...with any luck we could have 3-4" before the mix and change...hopefully it changes to drizzle... I would rather it wash away the snow than have frozen slop for Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Pretty sure by 36 KNYC is over to rain on the GFS and certainly by 39 with ice and snow a good distance to the west in NJ. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hour 42- The warm air punches fromn east to west all the way to NYC and the GSP south of the EWR . if this surface prog is off by just 3 hours ,will make a big diff for the city considering the rates at this time 850`S get N of NYC at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nope gfs_ptype_slp_ne_13.png Lol, you're correct with that map it's hard to make it out on some of the garbage maps I was looking at. Thanks for posting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Amazing hr 39 below 0C hr 48 back into the upper 20`s Dam easterly punch at 42 - does us in CIty east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not saying this is exactly what's going to happen with this event because the WAA surge appears to be a bit stronger but 2/22/08 is a good example of a coastal hugger during a +AO that produced a good front end thump before the change to rain for the coast. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2008/us0222.php#picture http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm02222008.html I was in Stony Brook on Long Island for that event and the question was how much snow before the changeover. Ended up being the biggest storm of that winter and very minimal rain at the end. I could see something like this happening. WAA precip moves in faster and stronger than forecasted, and we get dryslotted just as the temperatures start going above freezing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NYC gets crushed @39 hours on the 12z GFS, goes over to rain afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 48 advertises a change back , 850s come crashing to the coast , surface collapse . this is not a bad run I take it back , sleet at best NYC south - surface comes in plus 2 at 850 - my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The GFS is starting to get outside of its usable range. Favoring an RGEM/NAM/Euro blend ATM. I MO it's undermodeling the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 sorry at work, how does it look for Northern Westchester per the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The 12z GFS is 4mb weaker than the NAM with the coastal as it passes Cape May. Looks like more ZR inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Freezing rain signal continues NW of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 48 advertises a change back , 850s come crashing to the coast , surface collapse . this is not a bad run I take it back , sleet at best NYC south - surface comes in plus 2 at 850 - my bad Factor in the GFS always being off the mark on it's surface temps depictions and perhaps we stay frozen longer than advertised maybe not snow but frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 We did not trend warmer this morning . Terrific storm W of 287 N of 80 , but not that bad for others . Mind you it is Dec 15 th - Gotta take what u can get . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS is prob 4-8" for most NW of a line from NYC to New Brunswick to Trenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This could be a great storm for those N&W of the area. Im starting to get excited about this event... Having the RGEM on our side really increases confidence especially considering its about 24 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Im starting to get excited about this event... Having the RGEM on our side really increases confidence especially considering its about 24 hrs out. Yes. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The 0.75"+ line goes all the way back to the Poconos so a majority of this precip falls as either freezing precip or wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The GFS icing signal looks legit interior due to strong WAA at 900-950 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I kinda doubt that, at hour 42 the surface freezing line is almost to I-287. The city is probably in the upper 30's and that panel has the heaviest precip of the event. well i am 10 or so miles north of I-287.... so even on the GFS i make out OK... in the range of 4-8 or so inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The city and NE NJ both flip to plain rain between hours 39 and 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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