IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Start time on the NAM is around 13-14z with the over running precip. It comes in sooner than that but fights some dry air initially. Solid KU event for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm shocked how much the 850's rose even though the surface barely budged. Mid level warm air advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Given the time of the year, it's not very surprising. Water temps are few degrees below normal, so it's more like New Year's water temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 4k NAM snow maps show 12"+ from the Garden State Parkway west, with 15-18" lollies for the infamous higher elevations from Western Passaic County up through Orange, Rockland and even northern Weschester County. Far NW has some lollies close to 24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Wouldn't the Nam imply a major ice event, those surface temps don't really budge too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I would be ecstatic if we could just have an 850mb low pop off the Delmarva and close off in time for the easterly flow to be completely modified and have everyone change back to SN/+SN It's a long shot, but one can dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Wouldn't the Nam imply a major ice event, those surface temps don't really budge too much. Nah, very little ice/mix, either snow, nothing, or rain for the most part....by the time mid level temps warm precip is light or done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nam is hard to dismiss 36 hours out. the NAM failed miserably 6 hours out on the december 8th event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 the NAM failed miserably 6 hours out on the december 8th event. Every model fails miserably occasionally. And this time it could be the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This what OKX said about the 0z NAM this morning. The H7-9 flow still looks as strong on the 12z run: THE 00Z NAMAPPEARED TO BE EXHIBITING A MID LEVEL COLD BIAS GIVEN THE STRENGTHOF WAA ON SE-S H7-9 FLOW OF 50-70 KT AND WAS NOT ACCEPTED FOR THISEVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 At the very least the consensus for 2-4 to 3-6 around the NYC area is likely before any changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Enjoy the snow tomorrow regardless of change later etc. Not bad for mid Dec and this pattern is so much better than I thought it would be given earlier progs by some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 RGEM time...out 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I may be reading the sounding wrong, but the NAM has KNYC going no higher than 33 degrees during the storm. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The nam's placement of the high to our north was ideal. There was also strong confluence to our north. I'm shocked how much the 850's rose even though the surface barely budged. Lets see what the other models show. That is a serious high to the north that the nam portrays. With the strong confluence that the nam was showing, the low should have been a little more east than hugging the coast. 850s are rising because the 850 low is in the ov/w pa as I keep saying but am told has no influence on this system. I assure you it certainly does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Ton of snow on the 4km NAM anywhere west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 850s are rising because the 850 low is in the ov/w pa as I keep saying but am told has no influence on this system. I assure you it certainly does. Psht physics....who needs them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 1-2" per hour rates in the banding on the 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Per latest combined data excluding NAM, how far north does the mix line go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Ton of snow on the 4km NAM anywhere west of NYC. west around morristown, right ? I'm here around EWR....and it seems like it usually takes some elevation 5-10 miles west of here to have much different weather than NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I may be reading the sounding wrong, but the NAM has KNYC going no higher than 33 degrees during the storm. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_knyc.txt Mid levels get above freezing. Probably IP or ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 west around morristown, right ? I'm here around EWR....and it seems like it usually takes some elevation 5-10 miles west of here to have much different weather than NYC Based on that map above I don't think you even have to go that far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Have a feeling the snow thump in coastal areas before any change will be big based on similar setups in the past. I can def see NYC fetting 6 inches before changing, esp if precip verifies earlier than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 4K NAM precip type maps show all frozen or freezing precip even for NYC. This is all snow NW with maybe 1-3 hours of ZR and 1-3 hours of IP just NW of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Difference between Bergen County and Manhattan forecast is amazing. Watch for 4-8 here and across the river nothing. Yup it's happened before. Not too many years ago either. I once recall (probably in 2007 or 2008) when still working downtown (am in Jersey City for work now) taking the Port Imperial Ferry and going from heavy snow to zilch in Manhattan. The Hudson was the R/S line all throughout the storm. Had like 4 or 5 inches in our backyard and Manhattan got pretty much nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Have a feeling the snow thump in coastal areas before any change will be big based on similar setups in the past. I can def see NYC fetting 6 inches before changing, esp if precip verifies earlier than progged. That boundary between rain/ice/snow can go off for someone, it wouldn't surprise me if that thump prior to the change is very heavy and surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This would be nice, but its not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This would be nice, but its not happening. ScreenHunter_58 Dec. 13 10.08.png Only with a closed off low is this poss for coast. WAA is too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 RGEM supports NAM to a degree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looks near identical at 36hrs! How far exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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