MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 45 heavy ZR NW of NYC, still iffy for the city with the surface freezing mark near. Coastal really bombing, sub 1000mb east of ACY. Heavy precip at hour 48. 850's are warm but the surface is right near the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 wow...nobody called it a clown map yet. in all seriousness...I agree, this could become a serious freezing rain event...in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This run still destroys areas just west of the city. The NAM is insistent that this heavy precipitation will move through right along the 800-925mb thermal gradient. This is a wet snow bomb even down to the immediate suburbs of NYC. nam_ref_ne_14.png So you would say essex county is in the kill zone ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 48 Zr continues NW, the surface is starting to cool again as the low begins to pull away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This run still destroys areas just west of the city. The NAM is insistent that this heavy precipitation will move through right along the 800-925mb thermal gradient. This is a wet snow bomb even down to the immediate suburbs of NYC. Even EWR ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 There is going to be some serious banding over Northern NJ if the NAM is correct. With the 925mb thermal gradient tightening and these kinds of vertical velocities, someone is going to absolutely rip heavy snow right before the changeover and lightening precipitation. Hopefully the NAM isn't too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 There's a mid level dryslot moving in by that hour anyway. Not sure if this question even makes sense, but could a mid level dry slot like that help temporarily cool that portion of the column, sort of like wetbulbing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Even EWR ?? EWR is borderline...anywhere directly close to the coastal plain will probably struggle. Just a few miles inland and (if you believe the NAM) you're probably getting 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NYC west doesnt get out of the hole . the city sits right at 0c hour 45- colder before or after .great run temp wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If I believe the NAM, I should expect several inches of snow. But we know is not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The snowmap that I just saw from SV shows 6-10 for NYC and more just to the north and west.Wx Bell has about 8 inches for the area. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The NAM verbatim at KMMU is 10-14" of snow followed by ~0.25" of ZR or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Per this NAM run would be a VERY HEAVY banding over running snow, then ends as a very brief period of sleet/FRX Rain. Per Sim radar precip is done by hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z Nam on InstantWeatherMaps http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=051 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Man would I be frustrated if this came to pass-heavy dumping snow just inland, transitioning in the city, and mid-upper 30s rain at my house washing what snow I have away. I can see it happening unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Seen crazier things happen in less time but the Nam is hard to dismiss 36 hours out. It does score the coop every once in a while and has been pretty consistent and not really flip floppin . Im real curious to see the rest of the days runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Updated @ 9:21am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Man would I be frustrated if this came to pass-heavy dumping snow just inland, transitioning in the city, and mid-upper 30s rain at my house washing what snow I have away. I can see it happening unfortunately. This is a classic Long Island/coastal plain frustration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 but the Nam is hard to dismiss 36 hours ou It shouldn't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 weenie question, but what is consensus on likely start time? 10AM from what I can see? I have to drive from Monmouth County NJ to Sussex County tomorrow AM and don't want to miss a flake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is a classic Long Island/coastal plain frustration event. Given the time of the year, it's not very surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is a case where the North shore of Nassau County sees 6 and the south facing shores get 2 the 850 push is S to N and they sometimes do ok . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Man would I be frustrated if this came to pass-heavy dumping snow just inland, transitioning in the city, and mid-upper 30s rain at my house washing what snow I have away. I can see it happening unfortunately. Ah its just weather..whatever happens,happens..expect nothing and be surprised if you get something..Living on Long Island is tough on these borderline events..especially like us on the south shore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is a classic Long Island/coastal plain frustration event. Reminds me alot of Dec 16th 1973..icestorm city and Western Nassau..Suffolk got nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The nam's placement of the high to our north was ideal. There was also strong confluence to our north. I'm shocked how much the 850's rose even though the surface barely budged. Lets see what the other models show. That is a serious high to the north that the nam portrays. With the strong confluence that the nam was showing, the low should have been a little more east than hugging the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The 4k NAM shows epic banding from KSMQ up through to almost Springfield, MA with the surface freezing line out to Suffolk County and NY Harbor. Peak is hours 36-42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is a case where the North shore of Nassau County sees 6 and the south facing shores get 2 the 850 push is S to N and they sometimes do ok . OKX did split the zones on LI for this very reason. Wonder if they make us of them with this storm, would seem appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NYC is still snow with those 700vvs: There is going to be some serious banding over Northern NJ if the NAM is correct. With the 925mb thermal gradient tightening and these kinds of vertical velocities, someone is going to absolutely rip heavy snow right before the changeover and lightening precipitation. Hopefully the NAM isn't too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Ah its just weather..whatever happens,happens..expect nothing and be surprised if you get something..Living on Long Island is tough on these borderline events..especially like us on the south shore.. I know, and I'm definitely not expecting any kind of miracle here-it's still frustrating to see happen. I remember many of these kind of events from back in the late 1990s growing up. The worst part always seems to be that the snow changes over just as it starts to get really heavy here in these. It's still a much wintrier December than we normally have which you have to chalk up as a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The nam's placement of the high to our north was ideal. There was also strong confluence to our north. I'm shocked how much the 850's rose even though the surface barely budged. Lets see what the other models show. That is a serious high to the north that the nam portrays. The GFS will definitely be warm as well. I fear we may have to wait until tonights runs to see whether or not this cold air is being underestimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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