BoulderWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 You may have spoke too soon lol. Hearing rumors that 9z Serfs are colder. 9z SREF for LGA actually shows 4.06 mean opposed 4.83 it had at 3z, and lowers Philly as well http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20131213&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Agreed....but will be nice to see front end dump! (although I'm in state College so 6-10in looking good for me ) Yup, you guys are looking good!! Ratios should be favorable for you guys also. 6-10" looks like a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm pretty confident on 3-5 for our county. 2-3 by Driscoll bridge and 4-5 northern part of county. You see a big diff from south to north on these events in our county And I'm a stones throw from Middlesex and yet I'm under a watch for 4-8"..usually for me I blend the higher end from Middlesex county and the lower end from union in these borderline situations so 4-5 seems good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 9z SREF for LGA actually shows 4.06 mean opposed 4.83 it had at 3z, and lowers Philly as well http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20131213&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap The spread is also much larger than the 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I will be happy with a solid 2-4 here in Nassau with the AO spiking to around +4. It's probably the best that we can do with all the blocking on the Pacific side. Just too easy for the primary and 850 low to cut to the Lakes with such a bad look over the NATL. ao.sprd2.gif gfsNE_850_spd_042.gif Agreed. There was certainly a ceiling on what the city/coast was capable of getting with a storm and pattern like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 State College notoriously does terrible in Miller B's. Don't hold your breath. Yup, you guys are looking good!! Ratios should be favorable for you guys also. 6-10" looks like a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 State College notoriously does terrible in Miller B's. Don't hold your breath. Yeah....living hear for 3+ years has taught me that...but I'm optimistic of at least 5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Few realize the significance in even snowfall amounts at times when you cross Rt 27 going from Middlesex County into Somerset County. I've literally have seen 3-4 inches on the ground on a farm and 2 miles away nothing. And I'm a stones throw from Middlesex and yet I'm under a watch for 4-8"..usually for me I blend the higher end from Middlesex county and the lower end from union in these borderline situations so 4-5 seems good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 State College notoriously does terrible in Miller B's. Don't hold your breath. I know very well from my time there, but models are also pretty adamant about having a period of heavy snow with the primary as it transfers to the coastal. There's always the risk of the usual "screw zone" there because of the transfer, but at least for now it looks good. It's not always true also that they do bad in these setups-the 12/5/2003 storm dumped close to a foot of snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I know very well from my time there, but models are also pretty adamant about having a period of heavy snow with the primary as it transfers to the coastal. There's always the risk of the usual "screw zone" there because of the transfer, but at least for now it looks good. It's not always true also that they do bad in these setups-the 12/5/2003 storm dumped close to a foot of snow there. So different from the 90s when I was there. The only screw job was 2/3/95 when we were supposed to get 10-14 but got 5. But so many storms tracked inland that we always did well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 since GFS is putting out similar qpf as NAM....could we call them GFS clown maps as well.. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12Z NAM light to moderate snow hr 30-33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Agreed. There was certainly a ceiling on what the city/coast was capable of getting with a storm and pattern like this. Hopefully, the +AO is peaking and we at least see some east based blocking with the ridge near the West Coast to lock the cold in for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Moderate precip into Philly and NYC at hour 33. This is a cold run with a 1040 high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hopefully, the +AO is peaking and we at least see some east based blocking with the ridge near the West Coast to lock the cold in for January. I guess an East Based Block is better than no block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 The NAM looks slower to redevelop the coastal low, so the mid level WAA should be able to push farther north and quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 925mb temperatures are really crunching at 33 hours. Check out the gradient over New Jersey. It still seems like it will be too slow to redevelop the mid level centers to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 hr 36 moderate snow continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 hr 39 heavy snow moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 39 city close to changing to rain. Still a nice front end thump. Going to be a warm run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 39 city close to changing to rain. Still a nice front end thump. Going to be a warm run It started off cold so a few inches before the changeover looks likely off this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 hr 42 850mb freezing line north of NYC, surface freezing line still southeast of NYC by a few miles, very heavy QPF falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 42 looks like rain for city and frz rain nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Surface temps in NYC HR 39 in the upper 20`s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It started off cold so a few inches before the changeover looks likely off this run. Hr 42 is IP or ZR in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 42 looks like rain for city and frz rain nw At 42 the surface freezing line is still SE of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 This run still destroys areas just west of the city. The NAM is insistent that this heavy precipitation will move through right along the 800-925mb thermal gradient. This is a wet snow bomb even down to the immediate suburbs of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 42 is IP or ZR in NYC Yep, a changeover is happening at hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 45 heavy ZR NW of NYC, still iffy for NE NJ with the surface freezing mark near. Coastal really bombing, sub 1000mb east of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hr 42 is IP or ZR in NYC There's a mid level dryslot moving in by that hour anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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