Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I meant sleet not freezing rain before. But impressive output by the nam. It's obviously wrong it some way shape or form, even if its right with the thermal profiles. But fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:13 AM, Dsnowx53 said: The precip is pretty much entirely over by that point...so NYC never gets above freezing at the surface on the NAM...too bad it's the NAM. im more concerned about our area now...i think we are still kind screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:19 AM, ace0927 said: im more concerned about our area now...i think we are still kind screwed I wouldn't get excited/concerned unless other models jump on board. I think we either get no plain rain or very limited plain rain if we keep a NE wind. If the wind goes easterly, we're done for. That's really what I'm paying attention to. We're bound to turn to non-snow at some point, laughable NAM runs aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Why is the nam overdone this time? We have a cold air mass and warm air mass. Isn't that supposed to make for a lot of snow? Wasn't that what happened with the blizzard of 2006 in NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 CMC @ 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 2:59 AM, Superstorm93 said: You mean the 21z? 3z wont be out for a while. Your right - thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:23 AM, Superstorm93 said: CMC @ 48 hours I_nw_r1_EST_2013121300_048.png Fun game: can anyone spot the glaring glitch there? Oh my lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:27 AM, JetsPens87 said: Fun game: can anyone spot the glaring glitch there? Oh my lol That's the lowest High ever! ...or the highest Low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:29 AM, BenchmarksTheSpot said: That's the lowest High ever! ...or the highest Low! That is sure to have some interesting effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This gfs run should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:19 AM, ace0927 said: im more concerned about our area now...i think we are still kind screwed We might be. But I do think that confluence means some business. It's a tad too far east but it won't go down without a fight. NAM BUFKIT max-temp snow ratio algorithm gives JFK 10.3" of snow. Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NAM HiRes quite cold as well, does not develop an 850mb feature quite like the NAM though, therefore between 48 and 51 the 850 freezing line shoots from central DE to around TTN. 925mb frz line moves from N DE to just south of TTN and stays put there through the duration (thanks to the closed 925 low developing and aiding in damming that low level cold air). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Thought the RGEM looked warmer initially as well, but it ends up looking similar to the NAM (and the GGEMs past several runs) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:23 AM, David-LI said: Why is the nam overdone this time? We have a cold air mass and warm air mass. Isn't that supposed to make for a lot of snow? Wasn't that what happened with the blizzard of 2006 in NYC? pure unadulterated comedy - welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z sat 00z gfs light snow/furries in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 HPN Summary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 hr 42 steady snow in area..the high is in a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 hr 45 high position is further west this run….secondary taken shape in se states..steady snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 wow hr 48 heavy snow..this will be a beautiful run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 00z gfs lookin' sexy so far. high is in a much better place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Does this bode well for western Long Island now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 hr 51 rain/snow line up to ttn…secondary over delmarva…big thump of snow before any change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Is it a r/s line or snow/ice line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 the secondary hugs the coast…might go right into she. we try to flip back to frozen at hr 57... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think that's still snow N & W (have to check the soundings) at 54 and, if so, it's not that far from the NAM QPF wise --- but the axis of heaviest snow is West/North.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 By 54 hours pretty much the entire area is rain. NW NJ is probably ZR or IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 No closed 850mb feature though like the NAM and a track hugging the coast, so the coast will almost certainly torch big time eventually. Nice front end snow though until about 3z for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Surface temps soar into the 40s this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Thump of snow, before rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS looks like a complete torch at 54 hours. 850mb low does not redevelop and the sfc low hugs the coast. Not a great run at all. Front end snow, then plain rain for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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