earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Continue discussion of the storm in this thread. Please refrain from useless posts and arguing. Also, I wrote an article and compiled a snowfall forecast here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Continue discussion of the storm in this thread. Please refrain from useless posts and arguing. Also, I wrote an article and compiled a snowfall forecast here. Great comprehensive writeup earthlight. This system is sure to bring some surprises along with it, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 These 700VVs on the 18z GFS come after the warm air has surged and changed NYC and coast over to heavy rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Continue discussion of the storm in this thread. Please refrain from useless posts and arguing. Also, I wrote an article and compiled a snowfall forecast here. Nicely done John! Very easy to read and informative. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 These 700VVs on the 18z GFS come after the warm air has surged and changed NYC and coast over to heavy rain: It's entirely possible that the mixing line sets up somewhere nearest those intense UVV's as often you find that frozen/rain line along some of the more intense precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 These 700VVs on the 18z GFS come after the warm air has surged and changed NYC and coast over to heavy rain: Can you show the soundings for KMMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Can you show the soundings for KMMU?Where is there a place I can get them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Can you show the soundings for KMMU? SN to ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 KMMU has major icing on the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 SN to ZR 131212233659.gif Thanks Bluewave, definitely a ZR signature there. Where do you get that sounding from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The line in these events usually falls near the Watchung mountains in NE NJ..the mixing line hovers near my house routinely. The mid level warming should push northward, but I really think the surface warmth is going to struggle to move westward past the city very much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Thanks Bluewave, definitely a ZR signature there. Where do you get that sounding from? Sure, Plymouth. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The line in these events usually falls near the Watchung mountains in NE NJ..the mixing line hovers near my house routinely. The mid level warming should push northward, but I really think the surface warmth is going to struggle to move westward past the city very much at all. I assume you mean mixing between plain rain and something frozen other than snow? For snow I think the traditional break is further north, northern Morris on up, being west doesn't help much for snow versus NYC, but I agree the sourland - watching ridge often divides frozen from non. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Love it when accuweather on 1010 WINS says "if the changeover is delayed" sound byte, always gives us western Long Island folk hope. I'll take snow to a mix, just no liquid please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The line in these events usually falls near the Watchung mountains in NE NJ..the mixing line hovers near my house routinely. The mid level warming should push northward, but I really think the surface warmth is going to struggle to move westward past the city very much at all. It falls from there down to around my area. I feel your pain. But I definitely think you are correct about the CAD. That is one heck of an arctic airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 I assume you mean mixing between plain rain and something frozen other than snow? For snow I think the traditional break is further north, northern Morris on up, being west doesn't help much for snow versus NYC, but I agree the sourland - watching ridge often divides frozen from non. Yes, sorry for not specifying. The plain snow line goes well farther north usually -- but the frozen precipitation boundary in these events usually halts around the watchung mountains. At least when there's an airmass of arctic nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Love it when accuweather on 1010 WINS says "if the changeover is delayed" sound byte, always gives us western Long Island folk hope. I'll take snow to a mix, just no liquid please. Chances of liquid on Long Island are rather high. In fact I think the city and even Newark are going to liquid after midnight. Just IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 KMMU has major icing on the 18Z GFS. I believe the text data on the 12z GFS had 0.50" of ice at MMU as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nice writeup John. I extend the snow lines into PA via a visual determination. I like my location Good luck!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I don't think surface cold air is going erode away either NW of I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Chances of liquid on Long Island are rather high. In fact I think the city and even Newark are going to liquid after midnight. Just IMO. So what's your thinking for central nj, 2-4" to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Love it when accuweather on 1010 WINS says "if the changeover is delayed" sound byte, always gives us western Long Island folk hope. I'll take snow to a mix, just no liquid please. Chances of liquid on Long Island are rather high. In fact I think the city and even Newark are going to liquid after midnight. Just IMO. Very rarely does Newark stay snow if NYC goes to rain. Any delayed changeover for us would be a matter of minutes, not hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I believe the text data on the 12z GFS had 0.50" of ice at MMU as well. Yeah, sounds about right. There's a marginal, temporary flip to rain in the BUFKIT data, and if you exclude that, you get something like 0.75" on the 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yeah, sounds about right. There's a marginal, temporary flip to rain in the BUFKIT data, and if you exclude that, you get something like 0.75" on the 18Z. the high is in a good spot. i think the freezing line will be pretty close to the cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 the high is in a good spot. i think the freezing line will be pretty close to the cities Agree. As far as IMBY is concerned, I'm a little concerned about having this secondary take charge. I get screwed out of SO much snow that way. But that's a topic for another subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hello Everyone and Happy holidays, I have a weather station very near Washington Rock in Green Brook Twp, NJ Should be interesting to watch surface temperatures there, the station is set up by NWS Cooperative Weather Station standards, please do not use for wind as it is sheltered, elevation is 494 Feet above Route 22. Enjoy. http://www.weatherlink.com/user/gnbk/ Tony NWS Cooperative Observer - Station HSNN4 Harrison, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I believe the text data on the 12z GFS had 0.50" of ice at MMU as well. It did indeed, haven't had a chance to look at 18z yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Sure, Plymouth. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html Thanks so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My write up http://noreasterwarn.blogspot.com/2013/12/winter-storm-this-weekend.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If the RGEM is right on how strong it's CAD signature is then it's entirely possible nobody but Long Island is ever going above 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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