usedtobe Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/11/about-the-chance-of-wintry-weather-saturday-and-the-outlook-beyond/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Great write-up, Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Really nice writeup Wes. The only part I totally disagree with is your use of "worst case" for last nights euro when it's clearly the outlying the best case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Really nice writeup Wes. The only part I totally disagree with is your use of "worst case" for last nights euro when it's clearly the outlying the best case. I like you and HM's thoughts on the pattern though I think for us it's still messy despite the neg EPO. I'm not a fan of mixed events as they usually disappoint and are too darn hard to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Great read, thanks Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Wes, when your hopes and dreams get run over by a freight train in 11-12 winter and the same train backs up and runs over your battered spirits in the 12-13 winter it becomes really easy to fall in love with any event this year. And I've become unusually realistic and reserved with my expectations. It's actually helping me see more clearly. Makes the hobby more satisfying even if the results aren't blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well written and thought out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Wes, when your hopes and dreams get run over by a freight train in 11-12 winter and the same train backs up and runs over your battered spirits in the 12-13 winter it becomes really easy to fall in love with any event this year. And I've become unusually realistic and reserved with my expectations. It's actually helping me see more clearly. Makes the hobby more satisfying even if the results aren't blockbuster. I've noticed that. There were others really thinking the last storm was gonna produce a stripe of 6-9 inches. You didn't fall for it. You've also made some nice pattern posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well written, as always, Wes. Easy enough for someone like me to understand, but with the meat to back it all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Great article Wes. I will be curious to see if the warmth underperforms. It seems we are in a bit of a cold run recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Great article Wes. I will be curious to see if the warmth underperforms. It seems we are in a bit of a cold run recently. We had a 4 day period where we average around 10 above normal during the last warm spell with two days with maxes above 60. I don't see why this one wouldn't also give a 2 or 3 days with temps pretty war relative to normal. During that stint the ens mean actually underpredicted the maxes because it averaged out the warm days because they couldn't agree on which day would be the warmest. I don't see this as being a long warm spell, it will be quite transient but it should be pretty warm relative to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 We had a 4 day period where we average around 10 above normal during the last warm spell with two days with maxes above 60. I don't see why this one wouldn't also give a 2 or 3 days with temps pretty war relative to normal. During that stint the ens mean actually underpredicted the maxes because it averaged out the warm days because they couldn't agree on which day would be the warmest. I don't see this as being a long warm spell, it will be quite transient but it should be pretty warm relative to normal. We had two days of +10 or milder, one of +2, and 2 of plus 6 with much of the + values, other than the two 60's, being on the min temps. Don't see how this mitigates the below average temperatures that preceeded the brief mild run nor the below average temperatures that have followed it and are likley to continue into next week. It well may not be you I am describing but several posters got wedded to the mild winter/mild December back in October or November and continue to endorse that position and seem to be focusing on how the atmosphere in not behaving in the mild way that it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 We had a 4 day period where we average around 10 above normal during the last warm spell with two days with maxes above 60. I don't see why this one wouldn't also give a 2 or 3 days with temps pretty war relative to normal. During that stint the ens mean actually underpredicted the maxes because it averaged out the warm days because they couldn't agree on which day would be the warmest. I don't see this as being a long warm spell, it will be quite transient but it should be pretty warm relative to normal. Thanks for the info. +10's will put a dent in the negative anomalies for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Thanks for the info. +10's will put a dent in the negative anomalies for sure. The cold for the month still probably will win out on average unless we get a pattern change and right now that doesn't seem likely. By the 23 or 24th we'll be back in the cold for several days. This isn't a pattern I like for mby but we still could get an overrunning event or another mix once the arctic front gets by us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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