General Miller B Question

[North Balti Zen]

I understand from many posts here over the years, and from studying the Kocin winter storms treatise how Miller Bs work and why we generally don't fare well in that set-up here in 40S.

 

I have a general question...

 

What causes the primary transfer to so often occur at our latitude or just above it (and therefore be too late for us)? Is that a function of how strong the primary generally is that drives into the OV? Stronger there means slower to transfer and too late for us? Other stuff? Or am I just generally off on how I am thinking of this?

 

Also, relatedly, thinking back to the magic of '09/'10...wasn't the last of the big storms, the second February blizzard, wasn't that in essence a Miller B? How did we do so well in that one? The anomolous blocking from that winter regime allow it to transfer just in time to nail us? I remember distinctly most of us thinking it had busted badly before all hell broke loose that morning and radar exploded with awesome returns.

 

In any event, will be glad to hang up and listen to any discussion.

[SNO]

Bottom line Miller B's rarely workout well for DCA

[PhineasC]

Bottom line Miller B's rarely workout well for DCA

Thanks for the post.

[Kevin Druff]

Bottom line Miller B's rarely workout well for DCA

Thanks for the post.

 

What are you talking about Phineas? That is a post of the year candidate right there!

[snowfan]

This old thread from the NNE forum has good discussion Miller B's. And a few good illustrations/maps.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/1415-miller-a-vs-miller-b/

[North Balti Zen]

Thanks for the post.

 

That's what I get for hanging up....

 

Real nice stuff from SNO. Gracious, the learning.

[Bob Chill]

It's all about blocking here. A retreating hp means the primary drives too far. even with blocking it's never a sure thing. The bigger the block the better the chance. 

 

A 50/50 gives us a pinky toe to stand on from time to time. 

[North Balti Zen]

It's all about blocking here. A retreating hp means the primary drives too far. even with blocking it's never a sure thing. The bigger the block the better the chance. 

 

A 50/50 gives us a pinky toe to stand on from time to time. 

 Bob, thanks a ton. That's what I suspected. Much appreciated.

[North Balti Zen]

This old thread from the NNE forum has good discussion Miller B's. And a few good illustrations/maps.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/1415-miller-a-vs-miller-b/

 

Also, thanks for re-linking that. I remember that thread, and it helped my understanding at the time. Bob has also answered my sub-question.

[Bob Chill]

 Bob, thanks a ton. That's what I suspected. Much appreciated.

 

No prob. Even though they seem complicated (they are overall for everybody) there's a good rule of thumb for identifying big problems for us. If the primary drives above our latitude we are in trouble. If the secondary develops at or above our latitude we are in big trouble. 

[North Balti Zen]

No prob. Even though they seem complicated (they are overall for everybody) there's a good rule of thumb for identifying big problems for us. If the primary drives above our latitude we are in trouble. If the secondary develops at or above our latitude we are in big trouble. 

 

And I am correct in thinking that generally the stronger the primary, the farther north it will drive before transfer?

[Bob Chill]

And I am correct in thinking that generally the stronger the primary, the farther north it will drive before transfer?

 

Without a block, yes. With a solid -nao then it doesn't matter nearly as much because the front end will be mostly if not all snow and we can still score on the secondary. Miller B's are only our friend on special occasions. Kinda like your best friend who moved to CA dropping by once in a blue moon to get drunk

[snow.]

I understand from many posts here over the years, and from studying the Kocin winter storms treatise how Miller Bs work and why we generally don't fare well in that set-up here in 40S.

 

I have a general question...

 

What causes the primary transfer to so often occur at our latitude or just above it (and therefore be too late for us)? Is that a function of how strong the primary generally is that drives into the OV? Stronger there means slower to transfer and too late for us? Other stuff? Or am I just generally off on how I am thinking of this?

 

Also, relatedly, thinking back to the magic of '09/'10...wasn't the last of the big storms, the second February blizzard, wasn't that in essence a Miller B? How did we do so well in that one? The anomolous blocking from that winter regime allow it to transfer just in time to nail us? I remember distinctly most of us thinking it had busted badly before all hell broke loose that morning and radar exploded with awesome returns.

 

In any event, will be glad to hang up and listen to any discussion.

 

 

It's all about blocking here. A retreating hp means the primary drives too far. even with blocking it's never a sure thing. The bigger the block the better the chance. 

 

A 50/50 gives us a pinky toe to stand on from time to time. 

 

 

yeah..what Bob said.."climo" is that the low transfers somewhere off the Delmarva, and amplifies too late for us to get involved in the coastal....so we generally are relegated to what comes on the front end...which can be ok or suck....and often models will overdo it...plus with a low to our west temps can be an issue

 

what happened in 2/9-10/10 is anomalous but illustrates what a great pattern can do...we have a west based block in perfect position...a 50-50...a high to our northwest that didnt budge. and a strong closed ULL..even though the 500mb low was not the best track for us, the other factors offset it..so what happened is the low transferred further south than climo, amplified quickly and then hugged the coast, causing us to get that great backlash...usually with that ULL track the secondary will amplify too late, take a more standard track toward the benchmark and crush 40N....

[North Balti Zen]

Thanks much bob and Matt. Much appreciated.

[Bob Chill]

Thanks much bob and Matt. Much appreciated.

 

no problem at all. The better educated we are as a  whole the better our forum is. I honestly think our subforum has been excellent this year. A pleasure to participate in. 

 

As Matt said, climo should always be favored no matter what models say. I learned the hard way through the years with bad expectations and hurt feelings. Using those rules of thumb keeps you grounded from hugging the models leading in. Never expect that beautiful modeled snow when the flags are present. 

[mappy]

Bottom line Miller B's rarely workout well for DCA

 

Seriously? The man asks a question about WHY it doesn't work out and this is how you respond? Your act is old.

[sauss06]

here is a link someone gave me years ago about Miller A/B's

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/Fall%202006/Climatology_of_Heavy_Snow.htm

 

hope it helps

[gymengineer]

During the 1960's and those "blocky" winters, the KU storms that were Miller B's were good for DC too (3/60, 12/60, 2/61, 1/64, even 2/69 was ok for the western suburbs)- we would mix, sure, but DCA still ended up with ~8" of snow in each except for 2/69. We were basically on the southern side of the heavy snows.

[usedtobe]

yeah..what Bob said.."climo" is that the low transfers somewhere off the Delmarva, and amplifies too late for us to get involved in the coastal....so we generally are relegated to what comes on the front end...which can be ok or suck....and often models will overdo it...plus with a low to our west temps can be an issue

 

what happened in 2/9-10/10 is anomalous but illustrates what a great pattern can do...we have a west based block in perfect position...a 50-50...a high to our northwest that didnt budge. and a strong closed ULL..even though the 500mb low was not the best track for us, the other factors offset it..so what happened is the low transferred further south than climo, amplified quickly and then hugged the coast, causing us to get that great backlash...usually with that ULL track the secondary will amplify too late, take a more standard track toward the benchmark and crush 40N....

 

Here's the NARR data for it.  Note how the 500h low which started north of us is forced south and end up going across VA which put us in the deformation zone.  For us to max out you need the vort or 500h to go just enough south to get into the deformation zone.  Otherwise as you noted when end up getting front ended and then dry due to the west winds.  The models seem to always underplay how quickly that drying comes in.  Most of the old timers here know all that but newcomers and ultimate weenies don't always. 

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0210.php

[Violentweatherfan]

here is a link someone gave me years ago about Miller A/B's

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/Fall%202006/Climatology_of_Heavy_Snow.htm

hope it helps

Way cool site...Thanks.

[clskinsfan]

In 09/10 we had a displaced PV which was a sudo 50/50. Thats why it didnt matter if it was a B or an A. This current pattern has no blocking thus a Miller B wont pop the coastal in time for us. As Winterwx noted in previous threads it can work out well for a couple of inches for NOVA. But this weekend is not cold enough IMO.

[Amped]

Miller Bs are much easier to understand if you look at an 850mb map.  You can see one low is located on the NW edge of the warm sector in the Ohio Valley, then there's a CAD signature east of the mountains where the pressure is slightly higher and another low trying to form on the NW edge of the coastal warm sector. It skips going though the coastal plane because of the CAD.

The coastal usually becomes more powerful because the ocean provides it with extra heat and moisture.  The PDII was a rare exception where the coastal took over but didn't really bomb. If it did, it would have wrapped up the precip and screwed DC.

 

 

 

[Fozz]

Speaking of 2/10/2010, I've been wondering for a while..... was that storm a Miller B or a hybrid? 

[usedtobe]

Speaking of 2/10/2010, I've been wondering for a while..... was that storm a Miller B or a hybrid? 

It was a miller b. 

[mitchnick]

with all these 2/10 questions, here's a link to the entire month of 2/10 500mb map every 6 hours

you can get any month you want by changing the month and year in the url

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/archive/GFS_NA/0210/500/animate.htm

[mattie g]

Growing up in South Jersey, I have fond memories of what I'm pretty sure was the southern periphery of Miller Bs. I don't know if we ever got anything big from them, but we certainly got snowed on.

Now? I can't particularly stand the thought of them.

That said, there's some interesting reading in here.