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This weekends potential 12/13 12/14 12/15 for VA/NC


FLweather

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I do see this as a legit threat... but hopefully I'm not violating any rules. If so should have sent me a pm and closed the thread. As a former member of eastern... I do recall a couple times making a thread about a possibility and it did verfiy to an extent.

 

I have NO problem with you starting this thread and I hope there will be more of these  :hug:  The :angry: was directed at those who were complaining in here.  

 

I'm pretty sure Buckeye was expressing her frustration with those complaining about the thread not with you for starting the thread.  But, I'm sure she can and will speak for herself if you want clarification on the emoticon she posted.

 

Personally, I think it's great that you started this thread.  I think MBY has pretty much no shot at this, but yours does, and so do those of our VA posters.  So, by all means, post away and keep us updated on the potential.

+1   ^_^

 

Now back to your regular scheduled program   :snowman:

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RAH mentioned that there was still a chance of some freezing drizzle in the NW Piedmont of NC Friday night but they did not expect any problems. They also expected the wedge front to set up south and east of RDU. There will be a sharp temp gradient where this front sets up.

 

GFS is the only model showing some front end snow ahead of the main precip shield. But I would think that if it does come in early enough def would help cool the atmosphere and lock in a insitu Cad event. Weather it remains cold enough for freezing or frozen yet to be seen. But I agree with RAH about the front... typically a CAD wedge surface front setups between RAH/I 95.

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RAH mentioned that there was still a chance of some freezing drizzle in the NW Piedmont of NC Friday night but they did not expect any problems. They also expected the wedge front to set up south and east of RDU. There will be a sharp temp gradient where this front sets up.

Not often that RAH discos mention moisture extending back to Hawaii!

 

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN EXTENDED PLUME OF HIGH

MOISTURE CONTENT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF HAWAII...CROSSING WESTERN

MEXICO THEN INCHING NWD TOWARD NM AND TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN

ON THE IMAGERY OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND CROSS

THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO BACK THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH TO

TAP THIS PLUME AND ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND SE

U.S.

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Got me some sleet in the forecast this morning. lol

 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET IN THE

EVENING...THEN SLEET LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SLEET

ACCUMULATION. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND

VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

It's a shame this moisture couldn't be here today.

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Got me some sleet in the forecast this morning. lol

 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET IN THE

EVENING...THEN SLEET LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SLEET

ACCUMULATION. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND

VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

GFS is the only model showing some front end snow ahead of the main precip shield. But I would think that if it does come in early enough def would help cool the atmosphere and lock in a insitu Cad event. Weather it remains cold enough for freezing or frozen yet to be seen. But I agree with RAH about the front... typically a CAD wedge surface front setups between RAH/I 95.

FWIW I guess the UK looks reasonable.. much like the GFS to an extent. Shows the potential for front end snow with the 0c isotherm right along the VA border. Surface maps show a miller b setup.... with moisture quickly coming through. There has been setups like this in the past with a quick front end snow/sleet thump with some light freezing rain/drizzle afterwards.

 

Not often that RAH discos mention moisture extending back to Hawaii!

 

Lol. After recent years its been hard to get an active stj. But sure is nice to know its active now its just a matter of timing.

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It's a shame this moisture couldn't be here today.

Story of my life day late dollar short, now it's even got like that with weather, day late with moisture or a degree to warm! lol :violin:    after moisture passes by I'm sure we'll get cold again! lol   rinse and repeat...   But wait till we turn real cold Christmas week it'll probably snow in Waycross. suppress city...  

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FWIW I guess the UK looks reasonable.. much like the GFS to an extent. Shows the potential for front end snow with the 0c isotherm right along the VA border. Surface maps show a miller b setup.... with moisture quickly coming through. There has been setups like this in the past with a quick front end snow/sleet thump with some light freezing rain/drizzle afterwards.

 

Ah, yes 2010's Snowmageddon storm was a snow-to-cold rain scenario here.  I don't really see that happening with this one, though.

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Saturday is looking more and more like a really cold yet rainy day here in Hickory.  (Brick's favorite kind of day!)  Here's the extracted data from the 12Z GFS for KHKY.  850s are just slightly too warm right as the precipitation arrives, yet the surface stays quite cold.  Not cold *enough*, yet chilly nonetheless.

 

IGmqRt0.png

sZcz9HJ.png

 

k7XSPiR.gif

 

 

By the way, pcbjr, I'm loving these maps of which you just recently made me aware.  Thanks for sharing this site!  :thumbsup:

 

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Things may be getting interesting around the CAD area here.  The 0z NAM has me at 33 degrees with .60 QPF, definitely a trend colder.  We'll see if tomorrow runs trend colder but as it stands now, if the NAM is a degree or two too warm then some folks may be in for a surprise.  The 18Z GFS was colder here as well.  0Z GFS rolling now.

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Still trying to determine the location of the wedge front. Looking at the 6z NAM and GFS; looks like the GFS would take it briefly to RDU. The NAM would keep it a little more east. There will be a significant temp gradient for folks on either side of this front.

 

From RAH:

 

THE WEDGE BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPS
SHOULD LIE IMMEDIATELY TO OUR SE SATURDAY MORNING THEN DRIFT SLOWLY
NW INTO TEH SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD CAUSE A DECENT TEMP VARIATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 IN THE NW TO THE
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 IN THE FAR E-SE. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO
FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN-EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

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No doubt Calc! I have been using this site for a few years. I really love how to make it super easy for anyone to read!!!

 

 

Saturday is looking more and more like a really cold yet rainy day here in Hickory.  (Brick's favorite kind of day!)  Here's the extracted data from the 12Z GFS for KHKY.  850s are just slightly too warm right as the precipitation arrives, yet the surface stays quite cold.  Not cold *enough*, yet chilly nonetheless.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By the way, pcbjr, I'm loving these maps of which you just recently made me aware.  Thanks for sharing this site!  :thumbsup:

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Still trying to determine the location of the wedge front. Looking at the 6z NAM and GFS; looks like the GFS would take it briefly to RDU. The NAM would keep it a little more east. There will be a significant temp gradient for folks on either side of this front.

 

From RAH:

 

THE WEDGE BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPS

SHOULD LIE IMMEDIATELY TO OUR SE SATURDAY MORNING THEN DRIFT SLOWLY

NW INTO TEH SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS

BOUNDARY SHOULD CAUSE A DECENT TEMP VARIATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH

LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 IN THE NW TO THE

UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 IN THE FAR E-SE. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO

FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE

SOUTHERN-EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

 

 

We have seen a lot of that the last couple of weeks. Just wish we could be cold enough for snow when the precip gets here. Instead it's the same old thing with it being cold and dry, warms up, rains, gets cold and dry again.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2013

...LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...

.BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIVE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL STRENGTHEN
TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING...RAIN MAY
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS.

NCZ033-048>052-058-141600-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0023.131215T0500Z-131215T1700Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE
401 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
  NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

* HAZARDS...ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES MAKING ROADS AND
  SIDEWALKS SLIPPERY. BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES ARE
  ESPECIALLY LIKELY TO ICE OVER.

* TIMING...ICE AND SNOW ARE MOST LIKELY FROM JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
  THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MAY CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY. ROADS
  MAY REMAIN ICY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY IN SOME PLACES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE...AND A TRACE OF
  SNOW.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS ON ROADWAYS AND
  SIDEWALKS. DRIVE OR WALK OUTSIDE WITH EXTRA CAUTION SUNDAY
  MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
  ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS.

* VISIBILITY...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FALLING OR
  BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY CALLING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A
MESSAGE WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED. YOU CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT
USING HASHTAG NWSGSP.

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THIS BACK EDGE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS A SECONDARY WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS NORTH
FL/SOUTH GA THIS EVENING
. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING...EXITING FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

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Been watching some precip breaking out in Miss/La on radar and now the 18z GFS wants to keep the precip around a little longer. Could it be a second wave trying to form? Thoughts?

It does look interesting. gfs has been showing a secondary low with cooling temps aloft. How much to produce snow who knows.. but like you stated looks rather wet in LA,AL,GA. . But via radar def is a cold core rain event for those states.. will be interesting to see how it interacts aloft later to night with the wedge currently.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
635 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2013

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SEEING
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY 5 AM. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE
AND FOG TO DEVELOP AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THESE CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT GLAZE TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1500 FT AND OVER ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED IF PLANNING TRAVEL LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE DRIZZLE WILL END BY
8 AM...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH 10 AM SO
CONTINUED CAUTION IS ADVISED.

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