buckeyefan1 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I do see this as a legit threat... but hopefully I'm not violating any rules. If so should have sent me a pm and closed the thread. As a former member of eastern... I do recall a couple times making a thread about a possibility and it did verfiy to an extent. I have NO problem with you starting this thread and I hope there will be more of these The was directed at those who were complaining in here. I'm pretty sure Buckeye was expressing her frustration with those complaining about the thread not with you for starting the thread. But, I'm sure she can and will speak for herself if you want clarification on the emoticon she posted. Personally, I think it's great that you started this thread. I think MBY has pretty much no shot at this, but yours does, and so do those of our VA posters. So, by all means, post away and keep us updated on the potential. +1 Now back to your regular scheduled program Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 RAH mentioned that there was still a chance of some freezing drizzle in the NW Piedmont of NC Friday night but they did not expect any problems. They also expected the wedge front to set up south and east of RDU. There will be a sharp temp gradient where this front sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Got me some sleet in the forecast this morning. lol .FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET IN THEEVENING...THEN SLEET LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SLEETACCUMULATION. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT ANDVARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 RAH mentioned that there was still a chance of some freezing drizzle in the NW Piedmont of NC Friday night but they did not expect any problems. They also expected the wedge front to set up south and east of RDU. There will be a sharp temp gradient where this front sets up. GFS is the only model showing some front end snow ahead of the main precip shield. But I would think that if it does come in early enough def would help cool the atmosphere and lock in a insitu Cad event. Weather it remains cold enough for freezing or frozen yet to be seen. But I agree with RAH about the front... typically a CAD wedge surface front setups between RAH/I 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 RAH mentioned that there was still a chance of some freezing drizzle in the NW Piedmont of NC Friday night but they did not expect any problems. They also expected the wedge front to set up south and east of RDU. There will be a sharp temp gradient where this front sets up. Not often that RAH discos mention moisture extending back to Hawaii! WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN EXTENDED PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF HAWAII...CROSSING WESTERN MEXICO THEN INCHING NWD TOWARD NM AND TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON THE IMAGERY OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO BACK THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH TO TAP THIS PLUME AND ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND SE U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not often that RAH discos mention moisture extending back to Hawaii! The STJ is alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Got me some sleet in the forecast this morning. lol .FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET IN THE EVENING...THEN SLEET LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SLEET ACCUMULATION. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. It's a shame this moisture couldn't be here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Got me some sleet in the forecast this morning. lol .FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET IN THE EVENING...THEN SLEET LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SLEET ACCUMULATION. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. GFS is the only model showing some front end snow ahead of the main precip shield. But I would think that if it does come in early enough def would help cool the atmosphere and lock in a insitu Cad event. Weather it remains cold enough for freezing or frozen yet to be seen. But I agree with RAH about the front... typically a CAD wedge surface front setups between RAH/I 95. FWIW I guess the UK looks reasonable.. much like the GFS to an extent. Shows the potential for front end snow with the 0c isotherm right along the VA border. Surface maps show a miller b setup.... with moisture quickly coming through. There has been setups like this in the past with a quick front end snow/sleet thump with some light freezing rain/drizzle afterwards. Not often that RAH discos mention moisture extending back to Hawaii! Lol. After recent years its been hard to get an active stj. But sure is nice to know its active now its just a matter of timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It's a shame this moisture couldn't be here today. Story of my life day late dollar short, now it's even got like that with weather, day late with moisture or a degree to warm! lol after moisture passes by I'm sure we'll get cold again! lol rinse and repeat... But wait till we turn real cold Christmas week it'll probably snow in Waycross. suppress city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 FWIW I guess the UK looks reasonable.. much like the GFS to an extent. Shows the potential for front end snow with the 0c isotherm right along the VA border. Surface maps show a miller b setup.... with moisture quickly coming through. There has been setups like this in the past with a quick front end snow/sleet thump with some light freezing rain/drizzle afterwards. Ah, yes 2010's Snowmageddon storm was a snow-to-cold rain scenario here. I don't really see that happening with this one, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Saturday is looking more and more like a really cold yet rainy day here in Hickory. (Brick's favorite kind of day!) Here's the extracted data from the 12Z GFS for KHKY. 850s are just slightly too warm right as the precipitation arrives, yet the surface stays quite cold. Not cold *enough*, yet chilly nonetheless. By the way, pcbjr, I'm loving these maps of which you just recently made me aware. Thanks for sharing this site! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Saturday is my daughter's 4th birthday, too, so not really looking to more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Things may be getting interesting around the CAD area here. The 0z NAM has me at 33 degrees with .60 QPF, definitely a trend colder. We'll see if tomorrow runs trend colder but as it stands now, if the NAM is a degree or two too warm then some folks may be in for a surprise. The 18Z GFS was colder here as well. 0Z GFS rolling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Still trying to determine the location of the wedge front. Looking at the 6z NAM and GFS; looks like the GFS would take it briefly to RDU. The NAM would keep it a little more east. There will be a significant temp gradient for folks on either side of this front. From RAH: THE WEDGE BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPSSHOULD LIE IMMEDIATELY TO OUR SE SATURDAY MORNING THEN DRIFT SLOWLYNW INTO TEH SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THISBOUNDARY SHOULD CAUSE A DECENT TEMP VARIATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITHLATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 IN THE NW TO THEUPPER 50S/AROUND 60 IN THE FAR E-SE. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOFALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD FAVOR THESOUTHERN-EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Mountains may see up to 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 No doubt Calc! I have been using this site for a few years. I really love how to make it super easy for anyone to read!!! Saturday is looking more and more like a really cold yet rainy day here in Hickory. (Brick's favorite kind of day!) Here's the extracted data from the 12Z GFS for KHKY. 850s are just slightly too warm right as the precipitation arrives, yet the surface stays quite cold. Not cold *enough*, yet chilly nonetheless. By the way, pcbjr, I'm loving these maps of which you just recently made me aware. Thanks for sharing this site! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Still trying to determine the location of the wedge front. Looking at the 6z NAM and GFS; looks like the GFS would take it briefly to RDU. The NAM would keep it a little more east. There will be a significant temp gradient for folks on either side of this front. From RAH: THE WEDGE BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LIE IMMEDIATELY TO OUR SE SATURDAY MORNING THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NW INTO TEH SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CAUSE A DECENT TEMP VARIATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 IN THE NW TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 IN THE FAR E-SE. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN-EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. We have seen a lot of that the last couple of weeks. Just wish we could be cold enough for snow when the precip gets here. Instead it's the same old thing with it being cold and dry, warms up, rains, gets cold and dry again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 We have seen a lot of that the last couple of weeks. Just wish we could be cold enough for snow when the precip gets here. Instead it's the same old thing with it being cold and dry, warms up, rains, gets cold and dry again.welcome to NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NCCatawba, on 13 Dec 2013 - 07:06 AM, said: Mountains may see up to 1". Flurries! Never thought this event would amount to much anyway, even from the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC401 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2013...LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY IN THEMOUNTAINS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER....BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIVETHE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THEAPPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL STRENGTHENTOWARD DAYBREAK. AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING...RAIN MAYCHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.THIS IS ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS.NCZ033-048>052-058-141600-/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0023.131215T0500Z-131215T1700Z/AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE401 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TONOON EST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH ISIN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.* HAZARDS...ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON SURFACES MAKING ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLIPPERY. BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES ARE ESPECIALLY LIKELY TO ICE OVER.* TIMING...ICE AND SNOW ARE MOST LIKELY FROM JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MAY CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY. ROADS MAY REMAIN ICY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY IN SOME PLACES.* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE...AND A TRACE OF SNOW.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. DRIVE OR WALK OUTSIDE WITH EXTRA CAUTION SUNDAY MORNING.* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS.* VISIBILITY...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FALLING OR BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY CALLING THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE AMESSAGE WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE ITOCCURRED. YOU CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORTUSING HASHTAG NWSGSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Been watching some precip breaking out in Miss/La on radar and now the 18z GFS wants to keep the precip around a little longer. Could it be a second wave trying to form? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Been watching some precip breaking out in Miss/La on radar and now the 18z GFS wants to keep the precip around a little longer. Could it be a second wave trying to form? Thoughts? Have been watching the same thing CAD. That is a lot of moisture to be nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 THIS BACK EDGE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS A SECONDARY WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS NORTHFL/SOUTH GA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIATHROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING...EXITING FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Been watching some precip breaking out in Miss/La on radar and now the 18z GFS wants to keep the precip around a little longer. Could it be a second wave trying to form? Thoughts? It does look interesting. gfs has been showing a secondary low with cooling temps aloft. How much to produce snow who knows.. but like you stated looks rather wet in LA,AL,GA. . But via radar def is a cold core rain event for those states.. will be interesting to see how it interacts aloft later to night with the wedge currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA635 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2013...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THEREGION WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SEEINGTEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY 5 AM. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVELMOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLEAND FOG TO DEVELOP AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THESE CREATES THEPOTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT GLAZE TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY AT ELEVATIONSABOVE 1500 FT AND OVER ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES ANDOVERPASSES. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED IF PLANNING TRAVEL LATETONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE DRIZZLE WILL END BY8 AM...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH 10 AM SOCONTINUED CAUTION IS ADVISED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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