This weekends potential 12/13 12/14 12/15 for VA/NC

[FLweather]

While the models not fully supportive of some frozen precip atm things could trend a little bit better model wise.

 

Reading some of the Blacksburg discussions looks like we could have a decent amount of ridging building east of the mountains... that means CAD. Which CAD is always hard to predict. But given the overall setup there is a possibility of something even though very minor while the bulk of the event looks like CR.

 

Considering this is like a miller b type tri low setup... with some of the things that I've seen in life if a wedge can be established then there will be a variety of conditions... while generally light in nature.

 

But just for fun.

 

 

 

[chapelhillwx]

I think this is a prime example of the gun being jumped, except there was no gun to begin with with this event. It's been several model cycles since it looked good for anyone except maybe the Roanoke posters?

[JoshM]

What's this thread about, how much rain we're going to get?

[tarheelwx]

Agree with ncweather. The threat is there.

TW

[FLweather]

Agree with ncweather. The threat is there.

TW

 

Agree even though minor it is there. Interesting though R/S has been placed in the forecast for Friday Night/Sat morning time just a few miles north of here.

 

Even though technically from the 0Z euro the 0c isotherm is in northern VA the euro still shows a decent CAD setup.

 

 

 

AT THE SURFACE...THE ECMWF/GFS LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR...BUT THAT`S

WHERE THE SIMILARITIES END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH

COLDER AND ALLOWS FOR COLD AIR DAMMING TO OCCUR MUCH MORE QUICKLY

THAN THE GFS. ALSO THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE AN ISOTHERMAL NEAR

FREEZING SOUNDING...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST RAIN TO START...THEN QUICK

WETBULBING AND SNOW AFTERWARDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER

THAN THE GFS WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIP...QPF USUALLY BREAKS

OUT MUCH QUICKER IN ISENTROPIC LIFT SO WILL CONTINUE TREND OF AN

EARLIER ONSET THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGEST. SINCE WPC IS FAVORING THE

ECMWF...WILL FOLLOW ITS THERMAL PROFILE AND GO WITH A RAIN TO

RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW SCENARIO FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THIS EVENT IS FAR OFF

AND THERE STILL WILL BE SOME CHANGES NECESSARY AS THE MODELS GET A

BETTER HOLD ON THE ARCTIC HIGH COMING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT

WEEK. WE SAW THIS HAPPEN WITH OUR MOST RECENT EVENT...ESPECIALLY THE

GFS...WHICH WAS CONSISTENTLY WARM A FEW DAYS AWAY BEFORE SWINGING

BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION WITHIN 48 HOURS OF THE EVENT.

 

[NCCatawba]

Seriously? 

 

I don't see anything this could have went into the obs thread for those who might see a snow shower before the onset of rain or after the rain.

[strongwxnc]

Lol. I love the idea to hate on folks who want to create a thread on a forum. This reminds of back in the day before sub-regions and having to dealing with the mid Atlantic folks.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[metalicwx366]

Seriously?

I don't see anything this could have went into the obs thread for those who might see a snow shower before the onset of rain or after the rain.

No complaining. What about the other three BS wintry precip threads?

[burgertime]

I know this is very hard to believe but we do have posters who live in VA and this for now anyways looks like a legit threat. 

[NEGa]

Fwiw the temps for fri night and Saturday have been lowered the last couple of cycles by a degree or two. Currently mid 30s for ne ga - it's early and haven't checked much this morning but certainly not out of the question that nc or va could have some frozen precip.

A lot of talk about this beings CAD year finally. If so historically the forecast is rain and colder temps until right before the event when it goes frozen. Had a little ice here thanksgiving week. The last cad was on the heels of warm temps so a no go for most. Difference this week? It's cold!! 21 imby right now

[Cold Rain]

It's going to be tough to get this outside the "Token" category for NC. VA definitely has a better shot. Confluence and HP are too far north and WAA looks pretty robust. Would love to see it trend better, but not too optimistic about it at this point.

[Brick Tamland]

I know this is very hard to believe but we do have posters who live in VA and this for now anyways looks like a legit threat. 

 

I always thought of most of VA as a midatlantic state anyway.

[Brandonjva]

I'm in Williamsburg va. To me the mid-Atlantic is all about dc and when a system moves under them and in-to VA then the whole mid-Atlantic forum considers themselves shafted .. Hell, I figured I'd rather follow a southern bias anyway! Brandon

[Cold Rain]

I always thought of most of VA as a midatlantic state anyway.

 

You just want it to be so you don't have to hear about all their snow while you get a cold rain.

[Disc]

Brick Tamland, on 11 Dec 2013 - 08:39 AM, said:Brick Tamland, on 11 Dec 2013 - 08:39 AM, said:

I always thought of most of VA as a midatlantic state anyway.

 

My weather is more similar to the SE's rather than DC's most of the time. It's also hard to get into a discussion there anyway when the main focus is how much snow DCA is gonna get.

 

Covering Southern VA..

[D-Money]

I'm in Williamsburg va. To me the mid-Atlantic is all about dc and when a system moves under them and in-to VA then the whole mid-Atlantic forum considers themselves shafted .. Hell, I figured I'd rather follow a southern bias anyway! Brandon

yup! Ever since the hampton roads thread got locked I've been lurking here.

[FallsLake]

yup! Ever since the hampton roads thread got locked I've been lurking here.

Breaking the forums by states does make weather (focused) discussions difficult. There are very different weather zones that cross the country at different angles and elevation. In North Carolina, a person in Boone is a world away from somebody in Wilimington. Virginia is the same way. I would say Hampton Roads is closer to NC(SW to NE zone) than other parts of Virginia, in terms of potential winter storms.

[Isopycnic]

I always thought of most of VA as a midatlantic state anyway.

This whole discussion should be in OT but...

The Mid-atlantic subforum are DC-centric. Any other talk is admittedly shunned by posters up there. Inasmuch, members from Lynchburg -> Richmond lurk/post here in our subforum.

[buckeyefan1]

Seriously? 

 

I don't see anything this could have went into the obs thread for those who might see a snow shower before the onset of rain or after the rain.

Really? Yes....the SE Forum covers a large area and there should be more of these threads to encompass specific regions within our subforum. 

 

Lol. I love the idea to hate on folks who want to create a thread on a forum. This reminds of back in the day before sub-regions and having to dealing with the mid Atlantic folks.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Indeed    

 

I know this is very hard to believe but we do have posters who live in VA and this for now anyways looks like a legit threat. 

E. TN, LA, AL and MS too    

 

I always thought of most of VA as a midatlantic state anyway.

Only if you are just south of DC. 

 

My weather is more similar to the SE's rather than DC's most of the time. It's also hard to get into a discussion there anyway when the main focus is how much snow DCA is gonna get.

 

Covering Southern VA..

Exactly. As the SE Forum continues to grow, there will be more of these region specific threads to discuss the possibilities and they are welcomed. 

 

Anything further that needs to be said on this issue, take it to the Banter Thread. 

[FallsLake]

Well the 12z NAM and GFS did come in a little colder. At hour 72 on the GFS, the 850 line is now running through southern/middle Vir. compared with middle/upper Vir. on the 0z and 6z. Still do not think this will pan out but still interesting to track. Always hope.  

[FallsLake]

Looking at the NAM surface temps; at hour 84 the temp near Raleigh could be in the low 40s while Goldsboro(SE of Raleigh) is in the mid 60s. Probably be tracking where the CAD/wedge front sets up. 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Well the 12z NAM and GFS did come in a little colder. At hour 72 on the GFS, the 850 line is now running through southern/middle Vir. compared with middle/upper Vir. on the 0z and 6z. Still do not think this will pan out but still interesting to track. Always hope.  

 

I noticed on NOAA they went from rain yesterday to  rain/snow Friday night  to rain sat then rain/snow Saturday night. Hope this is trending toward something good for us. One thing this storm will have differently is it was in the upper 60's to low 70 's last Friday before the front came through .This time a cold front comes through on Thursday so it will definitely be colder this time.

[NEGa]

I noticed on NOAA they went from rain yesterday to  rain/snow Friday night  to rain sat then rain/snow Saturday night. Hope this is trending toward something good for us. One thing this storm will have differently is it was in the upper 60's to low 70 's last Friday before the front came through .This time a cold front comes through on Thursday so it will definitely be colder this time.

 

i agree - marginal temps (when is that not the case in the se) and warm before hand really can limit ice at 31 or 32.  if the surfaces are cold then marginal temps can give at least a bit more interesting weather.  its been cold the last couple of days, and even though it was rain here it was rain in the mid 30s which hopefully helped the surfaces get rid of the previous week's warmth

 

believe you are correct that another frontal passage comes thru thurs. - while yes there are always exceptions, past events show that the a lot of us in the se really need the cold air to be here and established before any precip arrives.  with that being the case this time instead of 33 or 34 and rain perhaps the cad will be just enough to drop those additional (but important lol) couple of degrees.

 

it will be interesting to see if the next forecast periods or two show a continued but slow drop in lows fri night

[jburns]

 

 

Exactly. As the SE Forum continues to grow, there will be more of these region specific threads to discuss the possibilities and they are welcomed. 

 

Anything further that needs to be said on this issue, take it to the Banter Thread. 

 

Good idea.  Once we get them all in there, we can kill them.

[NCCatawba]

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Looks like it's trending our way. With 2 days before storm hits this may be good.

[BIG FROSTY]

SHOCKER here, they have taken SNOW out of the forecast!!!!!! and added FREEZING RAIN and mid 30's for lows?????  

 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE
IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...RAIN WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
90 PERCENT.

 

Edit: I forgot to good old soaker Saturday night---- .SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 30S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT
 

[FLweather]

You just want it to be so you don't have to hear about all their snow while you get a cold rain.

 

My weather is more similar to the SE's rather than DC's most of the time. It's also hard to get into a discussion there anyway when the main focus is how much snow DCA is gonna get.

 

Covering Southern VA..

Really imo... the mid atlantic doesn't start till north va around the the mason dixion line and south. But that is a different discussion altogether. But I often feel the same way... My weather closely matches S VA more so than around RAH on the other hand. Typically temps run a good 5-10 degrees cooler with exceptions.

 

Well the 12z NAM and GFS did come in a little colder. At hour 72 on the GFS, the 850 line is now running through southern/middle Vir. compared with middle/upper Vir. on the 0z and 6z. Still do not think this will pan out but still interesting to track. Always hope.  

Its a complicated setup and sometime the best event are the ones not modeled correctly. But we shall see. Its one thing about it... There will be a CAD insitu setup this weekend. How deep and how cold remains a mystery.

 

 

 

Indeed     

 

I do see this as a legit threat... but hopefully I'm not violating any rules. If so should have sent me a pm and closed the thread. As a former member of eastern... I do recall a couple times making a thread about a possibility and it did verfiy to an extent.

 

 

 

 

But if the models don't start trending better by tomorrow afternoon I guess it can be wrote off for good. But even with todays discussion out of Blacksburg.... there is alot of uncertainty and contradicting statements.

 

 

 

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A COMPLEX

WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGS

MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN

REGION BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THREE MAIN

CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST ARE RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY LOW

CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE FIRST IS THE TIMING. THE LEAD SYSTEM TO

IMPACT US IS CURRENT A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND

WILL DEPEND ON ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA TO DIG DOWN

AND KICK THIS EASTWARD. WITH BOTH THESE SYSTEMS STILL OVER THE

OCEAN...WOULD NOT EXPECT MODELS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS

UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A CUT OFF WOULD TEND TO BE SLOWER TO

BE EJECTED THEN MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST...AND TRENDS HAVE BEEN A

LITTLE SLOWER...THUS WE HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF PRECIP

ARRIVAL UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE IT

ARRIVES THE PRECIP MAY BE QUICK TO MOVE THROUGH...EXITING THE EAST

AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ACTUALLY SPED THIS TIMING

UP A BIT. OVERALL...WENT CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF TIMING ON BOTH

ENDS.

THE SECOND ISSUE IS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. STARTING TO LOOK

LIKE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH

THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO

THE SOUTH AND MAY ROB SOME OF THE MOISTURE...AND MODELS MAY BE

OVERDOING IT A BIT IN BETWEEN AS IS OFTEN THE CASE. LOOKS LIKE

PRECIP OF A HALF IN OR MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALONG ARE SOUTHERN

BORDER OR EVEN REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING TO

PERHAPS JUST ONE OR TWO TENTHS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS IS CLOSER TO

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION VS THE MUCH WETTER NAM.

FINALLY...THE THERMAL PROFILE IS THE FINAL CHALLENGE...WITH AN

ARCTIC HIGH CENTER MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO TRY AND

REINFORCE THE EXITING HIGH THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC

THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS HIGH AND

RESULTS IN THE BEST WEDGE NOSING BACK IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY

NIGHT. STILL...THE TREND HAS BEEN A LITTLE MILDER...BUT NOT AS

MILD OR STRONG WITH WARM ADVECTION THAN THE NAM AND GFS. EVEN

LEANING TOWARD THIS COLDER ECWMF SOLUTION...ITS HARD TO SEE THAT

THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIP TO REMAIN

FROZEN FOR VERY LONG. SO STARTED WITH GFS THERMAL PROFILE AND

COOLED IT OFF A LITTLE TO CREATE THE WEATHER GRIDS...WHICH

RESULTING IN A A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR

NORTH...SOME SLEET FOR SOME AREAS...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS

THE SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY. THINKING TOO WARM IN PIEDMONT FOR

ANYTHING BUT RAIN AT THIS POINT. AM NOT SEEING THIS AS MUCH OF A

FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO AT THIS POINT EITHER...UNLESS THE SURFACE

AIR IS EVEN COLDER THAN ECMWF IDEA...AND THE PRECIP MOVES IN WELL

BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH MORE LIMITED PRECIP AMOUNTS AS YOU GO FARTHER NORTH...MAINLY

NORTH OF U.S.S 460...WHERE THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN COLD

ENOUGH FOR SNOW/SLEET MIX MUCH OF THE DAY...THIS WILL LIMIT

ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS...EITHER

JUST RAIN OR A BRIEF MIX OF SLEET OR SNOW EARLY SHOULD PREVENT ANY

NOTICEABLE ACCUMULATIONS. AT LEAST THAT IS THE CURRENT

THINKING...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE STILL FAIRLY

LOW FOR ALL OF THE REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF CHILLY...WITH MOSTLY

TEENS AND WENT CLOSE TO COLDER ECWMF GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN COLDER

WHERE SNOW COVER WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS FAR WESTERN SLOPES IN

SOUTHEAST WV...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WINDS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG THURS NIGHT...AND THINK WE WILL REMAIN

ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.

 

[calculus1]

I do see this as a legit threat... but hopefully I'm not violating any rules. If so should have sent me a pm and closed the thread. As a former member of eastern... I do recall a couple times making a thread about a possibility and it did verfiy to an extent.

 

 

I'm pretty sure Buckeye was expressing her frustration with those complaining about the thread not with you for starting the thread.  But, I'm sure she can and will speak for herself if you want clarification on the emoticon she posted.

 

Personally, I think it's great that you started this thread.  I think MBY has pretty much no shot at this, but yours does, and so do those of our VA posters.  So, by all means, post away and keep us updated on the potential.

[FLweather]

I'm pretty sure Buckeye was expressing her frustration with those complaining about the thread not with you for starting the thread.  But, I'm sure she can and will speak for herself if you want clarification on the emoticon she posted.

 

Personally, I think it's great that you started this thread.  I think MBY has pretty much no shot at this, but yours does, and so do those of our VA posters.  So, by all means, post away and keep us updated on the potential.

 

Thanks I hope so but we shall see.