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California Drought


Jim_in_CA

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You have got to be kidding me

 

Time: 2014-12-12T17:20:00Z UTC
Event: TORNADO
Source: BROADCAST MEDIA
Remark: A SMALL TORNADO EF0 CREATED DAMAGE IN SOUTH LOS ANGELES FROM THE INTERSECTION OF S. VERMONT AVE AND W. GAGE AVE TO 57TH STREET AND S. FIQUEROA ST. DAMAGE REPORTED INCLUDES, AN APARTMENT COMPLEX ROOF, TREES, TWO RESIDENTIAL ROOFS, AND DAMAGE TO A STEEL BILLBOARD. EF0 WINDS SPEEDS RANGE FROM 65 TO 85 MPH.

 

17z radar from VTX

 

post-1182-0-45380600-1418441173_thumb.pn

 

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...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 900 AM PST WED DEC

10 THROUGH 600 PM PST FRI DEC 12...

...CALIFORNIA...

WHISKEYTOWN 1 SSW 14.48

LAKESHORE SHASTA CO 11.24

HAWKEYE 11.22

BOGGS MOUNTAIN RAWS 10.24

PESCADERO 9.70

GIRARD 9.64

MT. SAINT HELENA 9.06

BOULDER CREEK 9 WNW 8.89

SAN FRANCISCO 2 SSW 4.28

MONTEREY NWS 3.54

SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN 3.46

PASADENA 3.43

SAN JOSE ARPT 3.39

SACRAMENTO 2 SE 3.33

OAKLAND ARPT 3.22

BEVERLY HILLS 1.91

LA DOWNTOWN 1.58

SANTA ANA 1.58


...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE

EVENT...

...CALIFORNIA...

SODA SPRINGS 4 SE 135

WHITE MOUNTAIN PEAK NE 113

INCLINE VILLAGE 6 NE 112

MAMMOTH LAKES 3 W 111

ALPINE MEADOWS 1 SW 109

GRAPEVINE 3 SSE 105

...NEVADA...

BENTON 4 E 139

BLUE EAGLE RANCH 11 SSE 96

GARDNERVILLE 5 WSW 93

...OREGON...

RUCH 12 S 117

SQUAW PEAK 117

CAYUSE 1 WNW 95

MILTON-FREEWATER 11 ENE 91

MT HEBO 90

MT. HEBO 90

PORT ORFORD 5 SE 90

TILLAMOOK 15 ESE 90



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Things are looking bleak around here. Based on current model projections, this may be the first time in recorded history that the San Francisco Bay Area goes the entire month of January without a drop of rain. Keep in mind that we are in the middle of the rainy season.

 

If that -EPO ridge doesn't break down soon, a significant drought disaster could be on tap for California this year.

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It's not the -EPO to blame, it's the PDO->EP/NP. A classic strong -EPO usually has a trough off the west coast, this time it has evolved from strong west coast ridging in a more meridional fashion. Actually the EPO has been near neutral lately. The west coast ridge will probably progress east in the means in a more +PNA setup...but that's no consolation, since the +PNA is not good for rain around the West Coast either.

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It's not the -EPO to blame, it's the PDO->EP/NP. A classic strong -EPO usually has a trough off the west coast, this time it has evolved from strong west coast ridging in a more meridional fashion. Actually the EPO has been near neutral lately. The west coast ridge will probably progress east in the means in a more +PNA setup...but that's no consolation, since the +PNA is not good for rain around the West Coast either.

 

It would be good if the ridge can finally progress east after the +PNA period, or at least deamplify/flatten a bit.

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Santa Barbara already did, in the 90s, and mothballed the plant after five years of operation. Other CA coastal cities are contemplating it or already bidding it. With conventional methods it is a capital and energy intensive proposition, and the muni utilities would be looking at paying $2-3000 an acre-foot.

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Looks like a good amount of rain on the way for most of the key reservoir areas. Hopefully this upcoming storm puts a big dent on the long term drought, but unfortunately there is still a long ways to go.

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pretty awful for mid-feb during what many hoped would be a nino rebound year

 

You're right, especially since Jan and Feb are supposed to be the wettest months of the year.  We've had one decent widespread storm so far this year, but by now we should have had 2 or 3 (or more in an ideal El Nino scenario).

 

2015's not off to a good start:

post-378-0-98717000-1424126584_thumb.png

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You're right, especially since Jan and Feb are supposed to be the wettest months of the year.  We've had one decent widespread storm so far this year, but by now we should have had 2 or 3 (or more in an ideal El Nino scenario).

 

2015's not off to a good start:

 

Good to see most of Texas at/above normal though looking ahead to spring for moisture trajectories.

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Yeah we're phucked.  That said, it's business as usual here in the Bay Area.  My apartment complex wastes countless gallons of water per day keeping our foliage green and fresh.  Same goes for people's lawns.  Cars are as clean as ever.  At what point will this drought begin to affect ordinary people living in California's urban areas?  Seems there's a lot of mass delusion happening now, but who knows, perhaps we have more reserves than I realize...

 

Speaking of, check this out: http://timesofsandiego.com/business/2015/02/17/water-consumption-san-diego-despite-drought/

 

Water usage is up in San Diego. 

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<rant> You know, that's really interesting. In Denver, we have some of the cheapest water on the Front Range, but it's more like $45/mo for a family in the winter and $100-240 in the summer depending on how brown you want your lawn to be. We have restrictions most every year, drought or not, and people are just used to it. There are good amount of incentives for xeriscaping and water saving toilets, and disincentives for overuse (mainly that the price per gallon doubles once you get out of the "household use" range and triples once you get into the "golf course lawn" range). Cars may be a bit dirtier and lawns a bit crispier, but we live with it.  Why can't CA? </rant>

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NASA dude says we have one year worth of water left:  http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-famiglietti-drought-california-20150313-story.html

 

This summer's going to be nuts.  

 

Yup, we're completely fooked. Last year just barely missed the 76-77 record for lowest Sierra snowpack, but this year is going to take it hands down.  It's even worse considering groundwater and reserves are all depleted after last year's disaster.  :yikes:

 

post-378-0-27612800-1426545911_thumb.png

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traditional wet season is coming to a close, going to take something really anomalous to turn things around

 

Yup, if we don't get a decent storm system before the 2nd week of April we're probably done with any meaningful rain till Nov. 

 

We could really use a mod or strong Nino about now, but unfortunately this one's looking like a Modoki which actually tend to shift the mean trough well west off the coast, popping a downstream ridge right over CA. 

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