Rick G Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I have snow envy. we have had a total of about 2.5 inches all winter. I do think it is a plot by all of you to keep the snow to yourselves. In all seriousness I expect that we will get enough to close the schools on Saturday. Wnep met (whack job) Joe Snedeker says we could get 4 or so this weekend, and has gone on record for next weekend as a chance of being stormy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 23 with flurries this morning. I honestly feel better about this weekend then the 2 prior storms. i think us in the LSV could have 2-4 / 3-5 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 23 with flurries this morning. I honestly feel better about this weekend then the 2 prior storms. i thing us in the LSV could have 2-4 / 3-5 event Hopefully you make out better this time around. It's funny you said that, right now I'm just not feeling it for down here this time, but the models overnight certainly trended in a positive direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hopefully you make out better this time around. It's funny you said that, right now I'm just not feeling it for down here this time, but the models overnight certainly trended in a positive direction. i agree, to me it looks like things got better. Soon the experts and more knowledgeable will be weighing in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 For a Miller B storm with a changeover this is not bad outcome as models are currently showing. Most of the precip comes before the change with just a bit of sleet and ice to lock in the snow cover. I was enjoying my countryside commute from work yesterday with a blanket of white everywhere. This is the way winter should be imo. To have this in December is a bonus around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 06z sounding for Westminster... as usual I worry about the precip making it far enough north to give me anything worth while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Canadian actually keeps things snow the entire event for pretty much everyone as the low tracks just south of PA. I tend to think that this event will be mainly frozen given placement of a decent high up north and a pretty flat looking wave coming across. Neutralish/Positive NAO seems to argue against any kind of big time phase and an overly huge storm. But there should still be a decent slug of moisture coming with this southern branch wave. At the moment I think Central PA will see a general light to moderate snowfall (2-5ish with perhaps an imbedded swath of higher amounts where best ratios meets best QPF) and also the potential of some mixing in the southern parts of PA depending on the track and evolution of the low. But from what that says right now the Nam is the outlier but showing more tilt. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmdTHE 00Z NAM IS MORE POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THEOTHER GUIDANCE, SHOWING GREATER PROGRESSION ACROSS THE LOWERMISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LESS PROGRESSION ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWFENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR A GFS/ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE HERE, WHICH ISPREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'SPROGRESSIVE NATURE. Thanks for the update Mag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I have snow envy. we have had a total of about 2.5 inches all winter. I do think it is a plot by all of you to keep the snow to yourselves. In all seriousness I expect that we will get enough to close the schools on Saturday. Wnep met (whack job) Joe Snedeker says we could get 4 or so this weekend, and has gone on record for next weekend as a chance of being stormy... I am at 1.9" for the winter if that makes you feel any better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The Weather Channel is really banking on this storm developing to be something huge... they are throwing out general 3 to 8 and heaviest being 10" or more... the headline "Snow threat: Electra may ruin your weekend" is absolutely ridiculous... I can see this playing out as the past few systems where over running produces early snowfall and the warm air does not come north until very late in the game... I just dont see this being more than a 2-4 or 3-6 type event right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The Weather Channel is really banking on this storm developing to be something huge... they are throwing out general 3 to 8 and heaviest being 10" or more... the headline "Snow threat: Electra may ruin your weekend" is absolutely ridiculous... I can see this playing out as the past few systems where over running produces early snowfall and the warm air does not come north until very late in the game... I just dont see this being more than a 2-4 or 3-6 type event right now That's where my thoughts are at the moment. Looking like most of the state should get in on the action...nice moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The Weather Channel is really banking on this storm developing to be something huge... they are throwing out general 3 to 8 and heaviest being 10" or more... the headline "Snow threat: Electra may ruin your weekend" is absolutely ridiculous... I can see this playing out as the past few systems where over running produces early snowfall and the warm air does not come north until very late in the game... I just dont see this being more than a 2-4 or 3-6 type event right now Hype machine is full steam ahead. It's been getting worse since their focus changed from weather news to weather entertainment a few years ago. Anything to get the ratings up, I guess. I've convinced all of my coworkers to use NWS forecasts and avoid TWC at all costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The Weather Channel is really banking on this storm developing to be something huge... they are throwing out general 3 to 8 and heaviest being 10" or more... the headline "Snow threat: Electra may ruin your weekend" is absolutely ridiculous... I can see this playing out as the past few systems where over running produces early snowfall and the warm air does not come north until very late in the game... I just dont see this being more than a 2-4 or 3-6 type event right now Especially if she refuses to give you a lapdance. The thing about these Miller B's is simple. It's all about the dry slot and watching it on radar. *cue Jaws theme* Doesn't mean all will bust but that's the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 One thing to keep in mind, TWC stopped being a TV channel a dozen years ago. They are now a media company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I am at 1.9" for the winter if that makes you feel any better... must be your elavation, i only have 1.25.......... You guys up north may go into single digits overnight. Looks like were in the mid teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 must be your elavation, i only have 1.25.......... You guys up north may go into single digits overnight. Looks like were in the mid teens. I measured 1.75" from the Saturday storm - MDT had 1.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I measured 1.75" from the Saturday storm - MDT had 1.8". As soon as my wife said it turned to sleet, i measured on my board 1.25. i didn't re-measure though once the sleet and frzn started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 must be your elavation, i only have 1.25.......... You guys up north may go into single digits overnight. Looks like were in the mid teens. I measured 1.75" from the Saturday storm - MDT had 1.8". I had 1.5" on Sunday before the layer of ice compacted everything... had .4" from Tuesday... I believe this is the first time since moving here and recording measurements that I am trailing MDT lol... they reported 1.9" each day for Sunday and Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I had 1.5" on Sunday before the layer of ice compacted everything... had .4" from Tuesday... I believe this is the first time since moving here and recording measurements that I am trailing MDT lol... they reported 1.9" each day for Sunday and Tuesday either the person that use to measure retired, or they bought a ruler with bigger numbers so they can see them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Very nice 12Z nam: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Very nice 12Z nam: Front end dump looking better and better. 3-6in should be solid for most of PA. Maybe some gets lucky and picks up 8in in great ratios to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 a friend just text me about the Mid Atlantic weather, storms and Anomalies Facebook page and said they are chirping up the latest models for PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Front end dump looking better and better. 3-6in should be solid for most of PA. Maybe some gets lucky and picks up 8in in great ratios to the north. Awesome, I love the way it's been trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Front end dump looking better and better. 3-6in should be solid for most of PA. Maybe some gets lucky and picks up 8in in great ratios to the north. Yep. Models are coming into agreement. I heard the 0z EURO was on board as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z NAM: MDT: 3.5 LNS: 3.3 RDG: 3.5 UNV: 5.8 IPT: 5.9 AOO: 3.5 PHL: 1.1 Mapgirl: 3.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z NAM: MDT: 3.5 LNS: 3.3 RDG: 3.5 UNV: 5.8 IPT: 5.9 AOO: 3.5 PHL: 1.1 Mapgirl: 3.6 NAM qpf gives Westminster .41, but I'll take another 3.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM qpf gives Westminster .41, but I'll take another 3.6 Cobb text output for Westminster says total of 0.68 qpf, with 3.6" snow, 0.22" rain and the rest fzdz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Neffy, is start time still Saturday afternoonish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'll be in Lancaster (Mt. Joy) this weekend. Would be nice to see another burst of snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Neffy, is start time still Saturday afternoonish? Roughly noon until early morning sunday, transitioning from snow to fzra at about 10 pm on sat night at MDT, per 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z NAM: MDT: 3.5 LNS: 3.3 RDG: 3.5 UNV: 5.8 IPT: 5.9 AOO: 3.5 PHL: 1.1 Mapgirl: 3.6 Isn't the Nam overdoing the QPF? Also I'm wondering if the ratio's are going to be higher than what the models are predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.