NortheastPAWx Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm seeing a 3-6 event with this, potential for up to 8 with ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm seeing a 3-6 event with this, potential for up to 8 with ratios I think that's a safe call. The NAM and SREF plumes are still a bit out of range for the end of the event. Should have a better idea later today into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Thinking maybe some snow showers sneak over the Weather Ginzu Knife that is the Allegheny Front tonight. Might be one of those little surprise snows. In other news, our greyhounds are not fans of that whole layer-of-ice-on-snow thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Thinking maybe some snow showers sneak over the Weather Ginzu Knife that is the Allegheny Front tonight. Might be one of those little surprise snows. In other news, our greyhounds are not fans of that whole layer-of-ice-on-snow thing. our beagle/pug mix agrees, our beagle however, loves it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Thinking maybe some snow showers sneak over the Weather Ginzu Knife that is the Allegheny Front tonight. Might be one of those little surprise snows. In other news, our greyhounds are not fans of that whole layer-of-ice-on-snow thing. Max, our 120# Labordoodle isn't a fan either. We have a very large Pine in our back yard, on Monday as it warmed up the ice started falling off the pine to the frozen crust on the ground, almost sounded like small panes of glass breaking, that really weirded him out. He kept looking at the tree then look back at me...... looking back through my notes, this winter is starting out like some good ones we have had '02-'03 and '09-'10! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Thinking maybe some snow showers sneak over the Weather Ginzu Knife that is the Allegheny Front tonight. Might be one of those little surprise snows. In other news, our greyhounds are not fans of that whole layer-of-ice-on-snow thing. I saw that in the AFD. Wouldn't be surprised to see a coating to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Thinking maybe some snow showers sneak over the Weather Ginzu Knife that is the Allegheny Front tonight. Might be one of those little surprise snows. In other news, our greyhounds are not fans of that whole layer-of-ice-on-snow thing. Have a Brittany puppy 10 weeks old. He is not a big fan of it either.He was doing his best trying to avoid it. Edit: looks like the GFS is struggling a little with the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 My boxer and bulldog both agree with the other pups that the 3 inch iceburg under 5 inches yesterday do not agree with their sensitive little feet. Cool write-up yesterday from Eric Horst @ Millersville U: Milder air is going to return to the region this weekend. Good news, right? Actually, the warm air will come with a southern branch storm that, like last Sunday's storm, will have split low pressures...one tracking to our west and one tracking up the coast. With snow cover and Arctic high pressure in place, it's a good bet that low-level cold air will hold throughout this storm (just as it did this past Sunday and Monday). Consequently, the outcome could be much the same with a period of accumulating snow on Saturday followed by an extended period of ice Saturday night into Sunday morning. It will be a couple more days until I can nail down details, but it could be a mess for weekend travelers. A final thought: With such widespread snow pack and cold air in place heading into the weekend there's a chance the coastal low dominates while the west-tracking low fizzles--if so, the weekend storm could end up being mostly snow...in which case 6+ inches is possible. That said, this is NOT my official forecast right now! My official forecast is for "snow Saturday changing to ice Saturday night." With such a wintry week, surely next week will bring improvement, right? Perhaps...or perhaps not. There are some signs that an even colder Arctic air mass could arrive following the weekend storm...which might mean the first sub-zero readings in a decade! Ho, ho, ho....a present from the North Pole! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 12Z GFS clueless with Sat/Sun Storm. What will the new EURO say??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 12Z GFS clueless with Sat/Sun Storm. What will the new EURO say??? Hopefully something decent as my excitement has dwindled a good bit today thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 i just read someone on FB posted said this is going to be a Miller B Storm and how that wasn't good for us. I know the Miller A may be better, but haven't we cashed in with decent snow from a Miller B? edit to add- if my memory serves me right, for us in the Lower Susq. valley, during a Miller B, if it starts as snow, we usually end with rain? or am i all messed up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 i just read someone on FB posted said this is going to be a Miller B Storm and how that wasn't good for us. I know the Miller A may be better, but haven't we cashed in with decent snow from a Miller B? DT's rule of Miller B's is someone will get screwed and someone will bust. They are not the automatic disappointment many make them out to be but are not as reliable as Miller A's. The CTP discussion more or less is preparing us for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 i just read someone on FB posted said this is going to be a Miller B Storm and how that wasn't good for us. I know the Miller A may be better, but haven't we cashed in with decent snow from a Miller B? We have been screwed many times but we've done well with a few depending on where the transfer took place and what kind of blocking we had. Generally speaking though...you are correct that Miller A's are better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 DT's rule of Miller B's is someone will get screwed and someone will bust. They are not the automatic disappointment many make them out to be but are not as reliable as Miller A's. The CTP discussion more or less is preparing us for disappointment. yep, i know in the past some posters here have said we never get snow from a Miller B and i know thats not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 yep, i know in the past some posters here have said we never get snow from a Miller B and i know thats not true. Matt and Bob just explained it pretty well down in the MA forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Matt and Bob just explained it pretty well down in the MA forum somebody gave me this link awhile back, Jamie maybe. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/Fall%202006/Climatology_of_Heavy_Snow.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 our beagle/pug mix agrees, our beagle however, loves it. It's funny. Our new greyhound is from FL (both are) and this is her first winter. She loved snow right from the start. But her first time stepping on ice (on a big frozen puddle), she slipped and was struggling....then finally squatted and peed on the puddle, as if to see "oh yea? take this" Max, our 120# Labordoodle isn't a fan either. We have a very large Pine in our back yard, on Monday as it warmed up the ice started falling off the pine to the frozen crust on the ground, almost sounded like small panes of glass breaking, that really weirded him out. He kept looking at the tree then look back at me...... looking back through my notes, this winter is starting out like some good ones we have had '02-'03 and '09-'10! Our dogs do that about wind. I saw that in the AFD. Wouldn't be surprised to see a coating to an inch. The snow bands so far have done well wandering into my backyard. See if that continues. Have a Brittany puppy 10 weeks old. He is not a big fan of it either. He was doing his best trying to avoid it. Edit: looks like the GFS is struggling a little with the weekend storm. CTP's AFD on it more or less is warning us all that this could be a big bust in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 12z Euro looks like past few events where early moisture pushes north enough for early hit of snow before any warmer air can push north... but then keeps the coastal low a little elongated and doesnt develop in time to produce additional precip so it slides to our south and east... not so sure it is able to just push out a 1032mb high situated over Maine like it does though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 A nice 2-4" event on top of the snow I already have, and I will be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 We have been screwed many times but we've done well with a few depending on where the transfer took place and what kind of blocking we had. Generally speaking though...you are correct that Miller A's are better. Yea, here in the LSV we do not fare well with Miller B's last winter. The transfer to the coast did not happen soon enough. However different year, different set up, so maybe this time the results will be whiter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yea, here in the LSV we do not fare well with Miller B's last winter. The transfer to the coast did not happen soon enough. However different year, different set up, so maybe this time the results will be whiter. MU recorded 8" from a miller B in 2005, so there's that. They CAN perform down here but they rarely do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 MU recorded 8" from a miller B in 2005, so there's that. They CAN perform down here but they rarely do. Showing my age, but I think we got about double that from a Miller B in the late 70s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Showing my age, but I think we got about double that from a Miller B in the late 70s? 78-79? i'm almost certain we have scored decent snowfall from a Miller B more recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Showing my age, but I think we got about double that from a Miller B in the late 70s? Feb 19, 1979, 15" For those in the LSV, MU has dates and local amounts since the 1920's. http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/climatology.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 A whole lot has to go right to get a Miller B to produce a decenr snow event down here; I have doubts this system can have enough events in place for a plow able event here. P-types will extremely likely be a issue as we need it to not move north too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Feb 19, 1979, 15" For those in the LSV, MU has dates and local amounts since the 1920's. http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/ climatology.html Bingo! Thank you! I was a freshman in high school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Bingo! Thank you! I was a freshman in high school. I was negative 6 years old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Bingo! Thank you! I was a freshman in high school. damn your old oh wait, i was a Soph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 damn your old oh wait, i was a Soph! We aren't old...we're wise. Do you remember that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think an obvious pattern has shown itself regarding how the conflicting signals are working themselves out. The huge NPAC vortex is dumping cold into the CONUS and fighting back the SE ridge from the +AO/-PNA combo. However, the position of the trough is not allowing for good amplification of systems along the east coast. We are getting flat waves and weak systems fighting into the ridge. We are getting decent QPF from a healthy STJ though. All of this combined is not a horrible pattern, and most of PA has already cashed in (my area not included) and I think if this pattern continues into the heart of winter we could get a historic cold period and nickel and dime our way to a good snowfall year. Of course I suck with long range stuff and the pattern could flip at any time rendering all of this moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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