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The 12/14-15 The bad pattern storm


Ji

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Eh Bob the snow line moves south a decent bit. Verbatim snow maps show 2" Baltimore and more N/W. The run is better, as one frame develops more solid front end precip with 850's between DCA and BWI at that time. A slightly better run. Not saying it will get better from there, but not as bad as 18z.

Snow maps seem flawed. We lose 850s by hr 66.

But it is an improvement with precip. I agree there so that part of the trend is better. I suppose it's safe to have hope in holding on a little longer.

Definitely wetter. There .50 on our area now. Rain would be more than half from what I'm seeing.

Best bet is to hug the coldest for temps and wettest for precip ;)

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Snow maps seem flawed. We lose 850s by hr 66.

But it is an improvement with precip. I agree there so that part of the trend is better. I suppose it's safe to have hope in holding on a little longer.

Definitely wetter. There .50 on our area now. Rain would be more than half from what I'm seeing.

Best bet is to hug the coldest for temps and wettest for precip ;)

ncep surface temps stay around or under freezing thru 81 hrs N&W

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ncep surface temps stay around or under freezing thru 81 hrs N&W

Yes its both a colder and wetter run overall. Definitely better than 18z, a good bit wetter. However, 6z will probably be dry like always, though I expect this to be wetter at 12z regardless. That doesn't necessarily mean snowier, but I believe our odds for a bit more wintry precip will go up. Also Bob 850's are there until around 69, after the heaviest panel. Used e-wall this run since I'm busy and didnt log in to any pay sites. 

 

Yeah this is a depiction of a more robust system and the high to the north is modeled a tad stronger letting the cold have a bit more teeth to it.

Hopefully the euro comes in better later on

It may. It hasn't been that bad to begin with. I think the models are going to trend a little better in both regards before the storm. By no means do I think anything dramatic, but still could improve snow chances. 

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I'm huggin everything except Wxbell.

1-3 was in the cards and the hand still hold aces, two's, and three's.

Euro has shown the most favorable temps. Tonight could be good.

With the mini 2 step the gfs did, yes tonight could be good. If the bar is low haha. GFS maybe leads the way for a decent suite. You want yoda's GGEM to keep coming in snowy like 12z, which was showing a mdt event just n of DC. 

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With the mini 2 step the gfs did, yes tonight could be good. If the bar is low haha. GFS maybe leads the way for a decent suite. You want yoda's GGEM to keep coming in snowy like 12z, which was showing a mdt event just n of DC.

My bar is an inch is a big win. Folks further n-w obviously have a better chance.

The column supports snow for a time. All models show that. Verbatim, 1-3pm is the changeover window so far. We just need to hope that the front end stuff keeps trending wetter. Plenty of time for that for sure.

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The euro is better, for sure. More precip, I am not on computer to elaborate. Just running it by so Bob can wake up to happiness.

  

Euro a good bit colder than the gfs and more precip on the front. 1-3 with close to 4 far n-w.

Randy might be back in.

Nice, I am feeling this one.
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