Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Does the euro still have the 850 low in the ohio valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 MASSIVE cutter forming at 216 hours, could go a long way to forming a block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro stays colder and south of the gfs. 1-3" verbatim before the rain. NW would do best of course. I thought it less impressive than last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro is sheared out like the gfs. The primary is weak and so is the secondary. It's not a solid miller b verbatim. The southern precip shield is larger as well and it mostly slides underneath us. That's good anyway because it is all rain. There is no classic amplification either. Everything is on an ene trajectory with 2 shields of precip. DCA is in the middle. The whole thing barely drops .5" of precip and a portion of it is frozen. It's not an "impressive" system imo. I would be stoked to see an inch. We'll see how it evolves. Far from resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I thought it less impressive than last night's run. Definitely less impressive. Strung out like the gfs just colder at the beginning when light precip moves in. I'm not seeing much to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro is sheared out like the gfs. The primary is weak and so is the secondary. It's not a solid miller b verbatim. The southern precip shield is larger as well and it mostly slides underneath us. That's good anyway because it is all rain. There is no classic amplification either. Everything is on an ene trajectory with 2 shields of precip. DCA is in the middle. The whole thing barely drops .5" of precip and a portion of it is frozen. It's not an "impressive" system imo. I would be stoked to see an inch. We'll see how it evolves. Far from resolved. I think it did shift towards the GFS and more in line with its own ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I've become uninterested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I've become uninterested. until 18Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think we have seen a general pattern trend develop with how the conflicting signals are working themselves out. The huge vortex over the NPAC is dumping cold into the CONUS and fighting back the SE ridge from the AO/PNA combo and keeping us on the colder side, however that ridge is also preventing much amplification into the east coast so storms are usually just flat waves or weaker. We are getting good qpf though due to the existence of a healthy STJ. It's not a bad pattern overall and as we head into the hart of winter if this continues could lead to a really historically cold period and also to nickel and dimeing our way to a decent snowfall winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Who is doing the LWX discussions last 2 days. They keep favoring a colder set up for this weekend! I dunno - seems that way to me... .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW THEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ISENTROPIC LIFT CLOUDS THE AREA UP FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW IN THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE LATE NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW FASTER WITH PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ONSET DEPENDS ON MOIST FLOW OVER COMING THE DRY PRECONDITIONS. CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE INITIAL SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MAKE THIS A WINTRY MIX CASE. A COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AS THE UPR TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS A BRIEF COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...LENGTHENING THE TIME FOR WINTRY P-TYPES AS OPPOSED TO A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...BUT AS OF NOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO WEDGE IN LIKE THE CASE FROM THIS PAST SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 At least the NAM is a rain storm for everyone 40S. PA does decent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Happy hour looks like the euro. "Some" precip comes in before we lose 850's. 1pm verbatim on Sat. The whole event is light for us. We are in between the 2 precip shields. GFS is drier than the euro. Not even a quarter inch total for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Happy hour looks like the euro. "Some" precip comes in before we lose 850's. 1pm verbatim on Sat. The whole event is light for us. We are in between the 2 precip shields. GFS is drier than the euro. Not even a quarter inch total for most of us. I have ncep maps, so I am probably wrong, but at 75 hrs it "almost" looks like the GFS is holding back some energy around TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I have ncep maps, so I am probably wrong, but at 75 hrs it "almost" looks like the GFS is holding back some energy around TX I'm out to 102. We really don't get much precip at all. Temps never get that warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm out to 102. We really don't get much precip at all. Temps never get that warm though. I was thinking that it was "close to" hinting of a trailing wave again, but I can see in later panels it never really gets its act together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The euro that I can see on wunderground doesn't look like a headline event but it doesn't look like a nothing event either. Those with more access can comment. It looks both wetter and colder than the American models. How often does that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The euro that I can see on wunderground doesn't look like a headline event but it doesn't look like a nothing event either. Those with more access can comment. It looks both wetter and colder than the American models. How often does that happen? It's trending away from it's better solution. As matt says, graceful changes and not wild swings. Bottom line is the column seems to support snow until early afternoon Sat. Precip is pretty darn light overall. Our only hope is for the front end stuff to be wetter. Thats the only thing to focus on for trends. Right now .1 - .2 seems like the best case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 until 18Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Ill be in south central PA, Let er rip. Will be a fun drive up that away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Ill be in south central PA, Let er rip. Will be a fun drive up that away Dutch Wonderland for a Christmas train ride? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 SatDec 14 35° 28° Snow Potential for some snow accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM's gunna be a bit more interesting for Sat. this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM's gunna be a bit more interesting for Sat. this run Strange looking radar. Warm front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Strange looking radar. Warm front? yes, but everything is shifted south not a huge difference for us yet, but we're far enough away so that the progressive flow could be signaling the models changes are coming this will never be anything huge even under the best case, but the Euro did have an impressive run the night before last so who knows I'd love to get 2-3" somehow out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm folding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS looks a bit healthier to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Gfs holds overall. Still the same timing for snow window until 1ish sat. Just not much precip. Mood to dusting. It's still possible to get accum snow just not likely. Depends how much precip we can get before the column goes to crap. Wear your jammies inside out Friday night and will it to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Gfs holds overall. Still the same timing for snow window until 1ish sat. Just not much precip. Mood to dusting. It's still possible to get accum snow just not likely. Depends how much precip we can get before the column goes to crap. Wear your jammies inside out Friday night and will it to happen. It's wetter and a little colder. Don't know how much wetter yet. Waiting on panels through 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Gfs holds overall. Still the same timing for snow window until 1ish sat. Just not much precip. Mood to dusting. It's still possible to get accum snow just not likely. Depends how much precip we can get before the column goes to crap. Wear your jammies inside out Friday night and will it to happen. Eh Bob the snow line moves south a decent bit. Verbatim snow maps show 2" Baltimore and more N/W. The run is better, as one frame develops more solid front end precip with 850's between DCA and BWI at that time. A slightly better run. Not saying it will get better from there, but not as bad as 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Instantweathermaps show 1-3" north of I-70 before it changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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