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The 12/14-15 The bad pattern storm


Ji

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Euro is sheared out like the gfs. The primary is weak and so is the secondary. It's not a solid miller b verbatim. 

 

The southern precip shield is larger as well and it mostly slides underneath us. That's good anyway because it is all rain. There is no classic amplification either. Everything is on an ene trajectory with 2 shields of precip. DCA is in the middle. The whole thing barely drops .5" of precip and a portion of it is frozen. 

 

It's not an "impressive" system imo. I would be stoked to see an inch. We'll see how it evolves. Far from resolved. 

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Euro is sheared out like the gfs. The primary is weak and so is the secondary. It's not a solid miller b verbatim. 

 

The southern precip shield is larger as well and it mostly slides underneath us. That's good anyway because it is all rain. There is no classic amplification either. Everything is on an ene trajectory with 2 shields of precip. DCA is in the middle. The whole thing barely drops .5" of precip and a portion of it is frozen. 

 

It's not an "impressive" system imo. I would be stoked to see an inch. We'll see how it evolves. Far from resolved. 

I think it did shift towards the GFS and more in line with its own ensemble mean. 

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I think we have seen a general pattern trend develop with how the conflicting signals are working themselves out.  The huge vortex over the NPAC is dumping cold into the CONUS and fighting back the SE ridge from the AO/PNA combo and keeping us on the colder side, however that ridge is also preventing much amplification into the east coast so storms are usually just flat waves or weaker.  We are getting good qpf though due to the existence of a healthy STJ.  It's not a bad pattern overall and as we head into the hart of winter if this continues could lead to a really historically cold period and also to nickel and dimeing our way to a decent snowfall winter. 

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Who is doing the LWX discussions last 2 days. They keep favoring a colder set up for this weekend! I dunno - seems that way to me...

 

 

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
RETURN FLOW THEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. ISENTROPIC LIFT CLOUDS THE AREA UP FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW IN THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE LATE
NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW FASTER WITH PRECIP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...ONSET DEPENDS ON MOIST FLOW OVER COMING THE DRY
PRECONDITIONS.
 
CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE INITIAL SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MAKE THIS A WINTRY MIX
CASE. A COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AS THE UPR TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS A BRIEF COLD AIR DAMMING
WEDGE MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...LENGTHENING THE TIME FOR WINTRY
P-TYPES AS OPPOSED TO A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...BUT AS OF NOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO WEDGE
IN LIKE THE CASE FROM THIS PAST SUNDAY.
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Happy hour looks like the euro. "Some" precip comes in before we lose 850's. 1pm verbatim on Sat. The whole event is light for us. We are in between the 2 precip shields. GFS is drier than the euro. Not even a quarter inch total for most of us. 

I have ncep maps, so I am probably wrong, but at 75 hrs it "almost" looks like the GFS is holding back some energy around TX

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The euro that I can see on wunderground doesn't look like a headline event but it doesn't look like a nothing event either. Those with more access can comment. It looks both wetter and colder than the American models. How often does that happen?

 

It's trending away from it's better solution. As matt says, graceful changes and not wild swings. 

 

Bottom line is the column seems to support snow until early afternoon Sat. Precip is pretty darn light overall. Our only hope is for the front end stuff to be wetter. Thats the only thing to focus on for trends. Right now .1 - .2 seems like the best case. 

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Strange looking radar. Warm front?

yes, but everything is shifted south

not a huge difference for us yet, but we're far enough away so that the progressive flow could be signaling the models changes are coming

this will never be anything huge even under the best case, but the Euro did have an impressive run the night before last so who knows

I'd love to get 2-3" somehow out of it

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Gfs holds overall. Still the same timing for snow window until 1ish sat. Just not much precip. Mood to dusting.

It's still possible to get accum snow just not likely. Depends how much precip we can get before the column goes to crap. Wear your jammies inside out Friday night and will it to happen.

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Gfs holds overall. Still the same timing for snow window until 1ish sat. Just not much precip. Mood to dusting.

It's still possible to get accum snow just not likely. Depends how much precip we can get before the column goes to crap. Wear your jammies inside out Friday night and will it to happen.

It's wetter and a little colder. Don't know how much wetter yet. Waiting on panels through 72 hours.

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Gfs holds overall. Still the same timing for snow window until 1ish sat. Just not much precip. Mood to dusting.

It's still possible to get accum snow just not likely. Depends how much precip we can get before the column goes to crap. Wear your jammies inside out Friday night and will it to happen.

Eh Bob the snow line moves south a decent bit. Verbatim snow maps show 2" Baltimore and more N/W. The run is better, as one frame develops more solid front end precip with 850's between DCA and BWI at that time. A slightly better run. Not saying it will get better from there, but not as bad as 18z. 

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