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The 12/14-15 The bad pattern storm


Ji

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How close is this to being something really good? I'm sure Boston will cash in. Miller Bs have a high bust potential around here I know. My forecast overnight went to 90% snow and rain for Saturday and Sunday. If we can just get that fresh cold NE H to supply us...

actually, NE'ers aren't so happy with this run of the Euro because it's too progressive (fast).....sound familiar?

for us, we want progressive because it increases the chances of snow on the front end and diminishes rain on the back end, while also guaranteeing it will be a light event

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As disappointing as yesterday ended up being, I guess in the big picture, this will make 3 trackable events in the span of one week, with the first two yielding at least some frozen for a large part of the area. Given the regime we are in and how Wes and Matt and others rightly point out it is so crappy for storms in our region, this is probably as good as it gets for now. It's far better than the last two winters anyway, in terms of wintry precip.

 

Hope we get to an -AO at some point this winter, just so we can hunt a legit storm once.

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Euro gives us a couple of inches of snow (per Wunderground maps) and not a lot of rain afterward

progressive flow ftw

The 0Z Euro 2m temps look cold according to wundermap. The freezing line at the surface appears draped over D.C. I-95 corridor for another classic CAD situation. I think it shows a little snow, but I wonder what the total qpf output looks like? Is it all snow? It's crazy how different the GFS is with the slight warming.

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If nothing else, this is exciting. I can't remember the last time we had three storms line up like this in the matter of one week.

I remember the GFS from December 1 showed multiple systems between the 8th and 15th, though now seems to want to continue the pattern throughout all December, fun times!

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I don't know what to make of the NAM.  I'm sure Matt would chuckle at that one.  It keeps the 850 flirting with us all the way through, but the surface looks warm (ish), mid 30's or so.  Not much of any CAD signal.

 

The hp moves across canada in step with the storm. Surface flow goes from SW to E. It's not CAD. It's WAD

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NWS last discussion said it was leaning on the dominant low being the coastl variety. Just need that to blow up south and early, drag down more fresh cold air--bam--flakes! If only it was that easy...

 

It's not a total write off but nothing showing to get all invested and over analyze. 

 

The prob with the coastal variety is it's still weak and progressive. Probably too much of an easterly trajectory and no appreciable amplification that can get us in the goods. Still plenty to resolve. If I get an inch of snow I would be kinda shocked. 

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