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The 12/14-15 The bad pattern storm


Ji

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you can compare the GFS and NAM at 84 hrs and see how the GFS is phasing the northern stream with the southern vort while the NAM has the southern vort coming out faster so the vort northwest of the Dakotas is on its own

Euro is like the NAM in this regard

GFS:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

NAM:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

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you can compare the GFS and NAM at 84 hrs and see how the GFS is phasing the northern stream with the southern vort while the NAM has the southern vort coming out faster so the vort northwest of the Dakotas is on its own

Euro is like the NAM in this regard

GFS:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

NAM:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

EE rule?

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after rain? nyet

Oh, so you want to eat the cake too? Sorry man, I can only bend optimism so far...

Jokes aside, the phase or no phase is the magic elixir. We're pretty close in now. If the euro takes a step towards the phase then we are close to the point of no return. Another day of runs maybe.

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Oh, so you want to eat the cake too? Sorry man, I can only bend optimism so far...

Jokes aside, the phase or no phase is the magic elixir. We're pretty close in now. If the euro takes a step towards the phase then we are close to the point of no return. Another day of runs maybe.

yep, agree

but I won't know until the morning    :sleepy:

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you can compare the GFS and NAM at 84 hrs and see how the GFS is phasing the northern stream with the southern vort while the NAM has the southern vort coming out faster so the vort northwest of the Dakotas is on its own

Euro is like the NAM in this regard

GFS:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

NAM:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

 

 

Agreed, need a flatter southern stream S/W if it's going to make it in time. Unfortunately, it usually trends the other way.

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I think lack of blocking (or some other feature) may make it more progressive as we've seen how things have been shoved offshore; we can hope at least.

The SRN shortwave now in the PAC is forecast to split, and what energy goes where adds another level of complication, hence the Srefs are all over the place.

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