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The 12/14-15 The bad pattern storm


Ji

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The primary dies because it has nowhere to go. HP doesn't have to be pressing south it just has to put up a wall. As an area of lp tracks into the hp it progressively weakens. There's a baroclinic zone along the coast in the winter due to temp gradient. If the primary is close enough a new area of lp will form off the coast and restrengthen.

Typically with miller b's the lp off the coast forms pretty far south but it is very weak and rides up along with the primary basically unnoticed for the most part. Once the primary hits the wall it just feeds the lp off the coast and it strengthens from there.

If a primary low was cutting to chicago It's too far west to transfer anywhere. Those scenarios are usually front end only and dryslot drizzle. Last december had a pretty classic example of that scenario.

I like your explanation, but disagree with you on one part. If a low tracks to Chicago, we aren't getting a front end thump. We would likely get only frontal showers. If it ever happens, I'll stand corrected. Also, I'm not sure what Dec storm of last year that you are referring to, but if it is the Christmas storm, the Chill storm, the Euro kept insisting the low would go to Chicago, but it ended up in middle Tn and into se Ky and then transferred off the Va coast. You can check the thread on that one if you think I'm mistaken, but I remember that one well. If we can get a low to go to somewhere between Cincinnati and Huntington and then jump we can get a good slug of moisture up front and then dry slot and cool down rather quickly. If it goes up west of there we'll get minor front end precip and then torch. Again, I don't claim to be an expert and if wrong I will stand corrected, but that's the way I see it.

Maybe just hope the Euro is correct. BTW, where is its low located and what transformation does it undergo?

GFS ens was not definitive IMO but a few were solutions we could work with.

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I like your explanation, but disagree with you on one part. If a low tracks to Chicago, we aren't getting a front end thump. We would likely get only frontal showers. If it ever happens, I'll stand corrected. Also, I'm not sure what Dec storm of last year that you are referring to, but if it is the Christmas storm, the Chill storm, the Euro kept insisting the low would go to Chicago, but it ended up in middle Tn and into se Ky and then transferred off the Va coast. You can check the thread on that one if you think I'm mistaken, but I remember that one well. If we can get a low to go to somewhere between Cincinnati and Huntington and then jump we can get a good slug of moisture up front and then dry slot and cool down rather quickly. If it goes up west of there we'll get minor front end precip and then torch. Again, I don't claim to be an expert and if wrong I will stand corrected, but that's the way I see it.

Maybe just hope the Euro is correct. BTW, where is its low located and what transformation does it undergo?

GFS ens was not definitive IMO but a few were solutions we could work with.

 

it happened in Feb 2007.  But of course the pattern was different.

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it happened in Feb 2007. But of course the pattern was different.

I don't have memory of storm then because I didn't live here. When you are on the other side of the mountains you get a warm wedge and no thump. I guess if a low is strong enough it could do it but that's about 800 miles. When I see lows going there, I just quit watching.

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I like your explanation, but disagree with you on one part. If a low tracks to Chicago, we aren't getting a front end thump. We would likely get only frontal showers. If it ever happens, I'll stand corrected. Also, I'm not sure what Dec storm of last year that you are referring to, but if it is the Christmas storm, the Chill storm, the Euro kept insisting the low would go to Chicago, but it ended up in middle Tn and into se Ky and then transferred off the Va coast. You can check the thread on that one if you think I'm mistaken, but I remember that one well. If we can get a low to go to somewhere between Cincinnati and Huntington and then jump we can get a good slug of moisture up front and then dry slot and cool down rather quickly. If it goes up west of there we'll get minor front end precip and then torch. Again, I don't claim to be an expert and if wrong I will stand corrected, but that's the way I see it.

Maybe just hope the Euro is correct. BTW, where is its low located and what transformation does it undergo?

GFS ens was not definitive IMO but a few were solutions we could work with.

This is how it can happen.  3-6" in DC area in 1982.  A little CAD can go a long way at times. See #5 in the list below:

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/washington-dcs-top-5-surprise-snowstorms/2012/01/16/gIQAPwOoAQ_blog.html

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You're right wnwxluvr. Last year is not a good example at all. I got model runs and reality mixed up. Chicago was the left goal post of guidance leading in.

I was using Chicago as an extreme example to help explain distance from the coast makes a big difference on transfer or lack of. And its cool when a big wound up Midwest cyclone can give us snow with strong cad. It's the only thing the apps are good for. Lol

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You're right wnwxluvr. Last year is not a good example at all. I got model runs and reality mixed up. Chicago was the left goal post of guidance leading in.

I was using Chicago as an extreme example to help explain distance from the coast makes a big difference on transfer or lack of. And its cool when a big wound up Midwest cyclone can give us snow with strong cad. It's the only thing the apps are good for. Lol

As Kurt showed, it can happen but takes a strong low. Seems like last year there were two blizzards in the Kansas and Missouri areas. Strong lows in the Arkansas area, neither doing anything here. Just too far away. If memory serves. I don't mind a low west of the Apps with cad. It just has to jump before it reaches our latitude if we are to have any chance of holding on to whatever thump might come.

BTW, if you see this, is it just my imagination or is the Euro much colder at 850 than the gfs? Does it ever take out 850's above 0? I don't know about you, but I like the fact that the Euro is the cold model on this.

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I believe we lose 850's but not nearly as bad as the gfs. I think they only retreat to s pa and then come back.

Both solutions are totally viable. Imo there's no hedge between the 2. It's safe to say if we get a miller b that there will be some frozen. Especially your area. Just something tp watch for now. And like others have said, cold is on a winning streak but many details are unknown.

Miller b's are usually nowcast at the end. That stuff is fun for sure. I'm not much invested in this one yet. Maybe in a day or 2 if it becomes more clear.

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I'm a beaten man. Leesburg, winterwx, mitchnick , Bob chill et al. Pick up the torch. Carry it until I return.

We do NOT quit around here when there's still 4 days to go! 

 

Sure, many people quit when there's 4 hours to go, but NEVER when there's 4 days!  Stand tall man!

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