clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well if you really want to bum out with jealousy, check this out... http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/13/rare-snow-in-cairo-jerusalem-paralyzed-in-historic-snow/?tid=up_next Lol. Talk about not being prepared for road treatment. What a mess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Don't worry. You'll most likely be added overnight. You're in a better location than most of southern Carroll County. Parkton and the rest of northern Baltimore County will almost always receive more snow than places like Eldersburg, Sykesville and Finksburg. Mt. Airy however has good elevation so even though they are in the southern part of the county they always do well. With this event, you being in a more northern location should buy you more time with zero line. LWX should have definitely included northern Baltimore with this warning although I have some doubts about how well we'll do with this one, but we are on a roll so maybe we will luck out again. Another area that should be included is the northern part of Harford County in places like Norrisville but LWX doesn't split that county up like they do with Baltimore County. Most northern Harford location have good elevation and do every bit as well as northern Baltimore and Carroll Counties. Not to be too critical of LWX, but they don't always take the most logical approach. The northern part of Baltimore county (as defined by LWX) includes places barely north of the Baltimore beltway (inside the beltway and south is southern Baltimore county) which could be up to 20 miles south of the M/D line, and which are probably more populated, and those areas aren't going to get much this time. That includes my backyard, Cockeysville, Timonium, even Phin's backyard. I think for that reason LWX went with the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 FINALLY done with ALL exams! Now that's said.. Holy crap a WSW for BOTH sides of the Mason/Dixon? I have been paying ZERO attention to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm down to 35/14. The NAM sim radar is actually pretty decent for early tomorrow. Has a front end thump similar to Tuesdays event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If the NAM is right we could get a dusting into the city. Then a lull before the cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The northern part of Baltimore county (as defined by LWX) includes places barely north of the Baltimore beltway (inside the beltway and south is southern Baltimore county) which could be up to 20 miles south of the M/D line, and which are probably more populated, and those areas aren't going to get much this time. That includes my backyard, Cockeysville, Timonium, even Phin's backyard. I think for that reason LWX went with the advisory. I thought Timonium was part of the southern half of Baltimore County. The cutoff of the two zones seems to be right at Cockeysville. They could have easily put the Hereford zone portion in a warning and the southern half in an advisory. Either way, its a tricky forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Funny how I am surrounded by Warnings. I would think they would add Frederick County, VA at some point. As my Point and Click is 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The NWS needs to forecast like they do in Alaska. Saturday: Chance of rain and snow. Highs 25-45, Lows 15-35. Snow accumulations 0-12". Chance of precip 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Funny how I am surrounded by Warnings. I would think they would add Frederick County, VA at some point. Nope. Works better when they don't. They always end up playing catch up. Let it be. Although, if they put us in one, that would be 3 in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm gonna go ahead and go with the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 got my 1/2"! ecmwf_snow_24_washdc_8.png Has the euro been consistent with this one or is this just a dart toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Has the euro been consistent with this one or is this just a dart toss. fairly consistent i think, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So NWS put out the warning...then dropped the point and click down to 1-3. Still take 2-3" of new snow happily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I thought Timonium was part of the southern half of Baltimore County. The cutoff of the two zones seems to be right at Cockeysville. They could have easily put the Hereford zone portion in a warning and the southern half in an advisory. Either way, its a tricky forecast. I think the cutoff is right along the beltway. I remember when I lived in Lutherville (just south of Cockeysville) I was still included in northern Balt county, but once I clicked Towson or any place inside 695, it was the southern part. Maybe they could draw the cutoff differently, but then again the rain/snow line isn't the same for every storm. This is the kind of storm where literally every mile could matter just north of Baltimore, so you could get 5" while Sparks gets 2". October 2011 was like that too. Since you're just a few miles from two WSWs with 4-8"+, I think you'll do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 1-3 IMBY will put me close to 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Wow, 4-8 is a pretty bullish call from LWX. That would mean nearly all the modeled QPF falls as snow with decent ratios. Seems like a stretch with a marginally cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zgummy Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 1-3 IMBY will put me close to 10. LWX thinking our elevation doesn't do that well. I'm at about 510' in Hamilton. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ABOVE 1500 FEET. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ELSEWHERE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 1500 FEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 THe NAM forecast sounding is really bad for BWI and for Dulles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I just want a half inch to go 4 on the month. That's hardly something to complain about. This storm is more of a climo fail for us city folks than a bad luck fail. Not enough cold to work with but being in the low 30's is pretty cold as it is. It would be a massive model bust with surface temps to expect otherwise. Maybe it gets going early enough before it goes to melt on contact before it goes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The NWS needs to forecast like they do in Alaska. Saturday: Chance of rain and snow. Highs 25-45, Lows 15-35. Snow accumulations 0-12". Chance of precip 50%. Best post of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wingnutonfire Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well I highly doubt I'll get called out for my plowing contract in Sterling tomorrow... And my side plow jobs near Charles Town are in jeopardy as well, especially since I just resurfaced my plow blade -_- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Gfs is drier than Damascus on a Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Gfs is drier than Damascus on a Sunday Lol...if you're referring to Damascus, MD then times have changed...sort of. As far as the models go...well it figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I've been in the Philly sub forum all day cause I am chasing this storm this weekend and it is a snooze fest there. I get more info here than I could ever get there. Are we the only very active sub forum? I thought ours was "normal?" I'm just surprised at how little they are discussing it. I'm spoiled by you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Wind is out the NNE at 0...good sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Gfs is drier than Damascus on a Sunday If this is a non-event my daughter will not be happy. I told her no sleep over because the roads would be bad in the am. It's gonna be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Wind is out the NNE at 0...good sign? Yep but the convection in MO isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yep but the convection in MO isn't. I was afraid of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I've been in the Philly sub forum all day cause I am chasing this storm this weekend and it is a snooze fest there. I get more info here than I could ever get there. Are we the only very active sub forum? I thought ours was "normal?" I'm just surprised at how little they are discussing it. I'm spoiled by you guys I think most people from that area can't read so their forum is pretty empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I think most people from that area can't read so their forum is pretty empty. Can't read, but we know our apostrophe's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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