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The 12/14-15 The bad pattern storm


Ji

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NAM and GFS have been consistent the last few runs with precip totals, temps, etc, but I think the Euro has been most consistent and I think it will be the winner when this is said and done.  Not that I think that's a bad thing, it actually has a good solution for part of the area, but I just think it will win.  It also is an iffy solution for the southern edge.  Gonna be close in many spots.

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Soundings not out yet on twisterdata, when does DCA flip from rain to snow on the GFS?

There's a decent layer of above freezing air near the sfc pretty much the whole day unless it comes in early.. or perhaps if we get heavier precip.  The best call on this run is probably conversational flakes for the city. 

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That Baltimore gradient is excrutiating.

have to admit, in the 41 years of following weather intensely (since winter of  72/73 when I was a freshman in h.s.), I have never seen such a gradient over Baltimore

being on the wrong side, of course, sux, but I have had 4" so far so I'm not complaining

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have to admit, in the 41 years of following weather intensely (since winter of  72/73 when I was a freshman in h.s.), I have never seen such a gradient over Baltimore

being on the wrong side, of course, sux, but I have had 4" so far so I'm not complaining

 

Mitch: the UHI effect appears to be really pronounced this year as these systems for Balt, as near as I can tell. At the same moment that Cantore was on the air Tuesday talking about light rain by the harbor, I was in moderate snow (and I think you had the same ob at the same time for moderate snow). It wasn't accumulating well, but it was at least snow. But apparently downtown it was still too warm even for that. My part of Balt City is about five miles NE of downtown.

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have to admit, in the 41 years of following weather intensely (since winter of  72/73 when I was a freshman in h.s.), I have never seen such a gradient over Baltimore

being on the wrong side, of course, sux, but I have had 4" so far so I'm not complaining

 

IMO the fall line is more important than 40N.....at least in the mid-Atlantic

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IMO the fall line is more important than 40N.....at least in the mid-Atlantic

I agree it often does, but this year is has not so much

when I drive on Rt. 100, which goes from eastern Anne Arundel County to Rt. 29, the folks in Howard Co. have not done as well as the folks up north of the city

93/94 was an EPO driven cold winter so my suspicion is, when all you have is a -EPO to get you cold, you need to be at or around 40N, though 39.5 has done the trick this year unlike 93/94 (so far, that is)

I'll bide my time; eventually those to the south of the cities and/or east of the piedmont (aka fall line) will get some better measurable snows

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Serious question... JB2 says that the current snow cover... will help keep the temperatures at bay and delay the change over from snow to mix... thinking about this... wouldn't the warm air a loft come in no matter what and not really be slowed down by the surface conditions?  Shouldn't The overall circulatory/ flow associated with the low and other conditions a loft win out...  Or can the snow help "thicken" the cold air... helping to maintain sub freezing conditions higher up in to the profile?

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Mitch: the UHI effect appears to be really pronounced this year as these systems for Balt, as near as I can tell. At the same moment that Cantore was on the air Tuesday talking about light rain by the harbor, I was in moderate snow (and I think you had the same ob at the same time for moderate snow). It wasn't accumulating well, but it was at least snow. But apparently downtown it was still too warm even for that. My part of Balt City is about five miles NE of downtown.

Not sure if it's all attributed to the UHI but the gradient on Tuesday in baltimore was ridiculous. I drove through the city on my way to the Hereford zone and there was merely a trace of snow on Pratt st but just a few miles north on the JFX near the zoo you could see a big difference.

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Are we gonna get that much? I thought temps got to 37 by 18Z with little in the way of precip. Did I miss something? I'm shooting form a car top dusting.

No you're probably right. 1/2" is my jackpot goal.
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Serious question... JB2 says that the current snow cover... will help keep the temperatures at bay and delay the change over from snow to mix... thinking about this... wouldn't the warm air a loft come in no matter what and not really be slowed down by the surface conditions?  Shouldn't The overall circulatory/ flow associated with the low and other conditions a loft win out...  Or can the snow help "thicken" the cold air... helping to maintain sub freezing conditions higher up in to the profile?

JB2 is a snow weenie...sometimes his thoughts are legit and correct but at the end of the day he'll say whatever he needs to in order to project more snow...Near the bay snow cover is not very expansive so I dont see that being a factor..Also temps right now in places near the bay are pushing 40F today...Not a significant drop tonight..Dont see accumulating snow being favorable near the bay especially south of Harford County

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It is worth going to your sister for this one. The gradient between you and her house is one of the craziest i have seen.

Not sure it's worth traveling anywhere with this one unless you're just bored. 

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