WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NAM and GFS have been consistent the last few runs with precip totals, temps, etc, but I think the Euro has been most consistent and I think it will be the winner when this is said and done. Not that I think that's a bad thing, it actually has a good solution for part of the area, but I just think it will win. It also is an iffy solution for the southern edge. Gonna be close in many spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Soundings not out yet on twisterdata, when does DCA flip from rain to snow on the GFS? There's a decent layer of above freezing air near the sfc pretty much the whole day unless it comes in early.. or perhaps if we get heavier precip. The best call on this run is probably conversational flakes for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That would be me. Got 8" at New Windsor FD. Mapgirl had 7" I believe. I had just under 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That Baltimore gradient is excrutiating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Soundings not out yet on twisterdata, when does DCA flip from rain to snow on the GFS? Its pretty much just mood flakes... the temp is above freezing at surface when its snowing... like mid 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That Baltimore gradient is excrutiating. have to admit, in the 41 years of following weather intensely (since winter of 72/73 when I was a freshman in h.s.), I have never seen such a gradient over Baltimore being on the wrong side, of course, sux, but I have had 4" so far so I'm not complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The DCA/BWI WDI indicates the front end has a surprise band over us Sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 cant wait to do snow angels in my 3-5" tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 have to admit, in the 41 years of following weather intensely (since winter of 72/73 when I was a freshman in h.s.), I have never seen such a gradient over Baltimore being on the wrong side, of course, sux, but I have had 4" so far so I'm not complaining Mitch: the UHI effect appears to be really pronounced this year as these systems for Balt, as near as I can tell. At the same moment that Cantore was on the air Tuesday talking about light rain by the harbor, I was in moderate snow (and I think you had the same ob at the same time for moderate snow). It wasn't accumulating well, but it was at least snow. But apparently downtown it was still too warm even for that. My part of Balt City is about five miles NE of downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 have to admit, in the 41 years of following weather intensely (since winter of 72/73 when I was a freshman in h.s.), I have never seen such a gradient over Baltimore being on the wrong side, of course, sux, but I have had 4" so far so I'm not complaining IMO the fall line is more important than 40N.....at least in the mid-Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 IMO the fall line is more important than 40N.....at least in the mid-Atlantic I agree it often does, but this year is has not so much when I drive on Rt. 100, which goes from eastern Anne Arundel County to Rt. 29, the folks in Howard Co. have not done as well as the folks up north of the city 93/94 was an EPO driven cold winter so my suspicion is, when all you have is a -EPO to get you cold, you need to be at or around 40N, though 39.5 has done the trick this year unlike 93/94 (so far, that is) I'll bide my time; eventually those to the south of the cities and/or east of the piedmont (aka fall line) will get some better measurable snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It's still really early for good snow especially in the coastal plain. Anything before Dec 15 is pretty much bonus. I wish we had more but there's no reason to complain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Serious question... JB2 says that the current snow cover... will help keep the temperatures at bay and delay the change over from snow to mix... thinking about this... wouldn't the warm air a loft come in no matter what and not really be slowed down by the surface conditions? Shouldn't The overall circulatory/ flow associated with the low and other conditions a loft win out... Or can the snow help "thicken" the cold air... helping to maintain sub freezing conditions higher up in to the profile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It's still really early for good snow especially in the coastal plain. Anything before Dec 15 is pretty much bonus. I wish we had more but there's no reason to complain at this point. Even in 95/96, there was a large gradient between DCA and N&W until January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Even in 95/96, there was a large gradient between DCA and N&W until January. I had a foot of snow in NOVEMBER in 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Mitch: the UHI effect appears to be really pronounced this year as these systems for Balt, as near as I can tell. At the same moment that Cantore was on the air Tuesday talking about light rain by the harbor, I was in moderate snow (and I think you had the same ob at the same time for moderate snow). It wasn't accumulating well, but it was at least snow. But apparently downtown it was still too warm even for that. My part of Balt City is about five miles NE of downtown. Not sure if it's all attributed to the UHI but the gradient on Tuesday in baltimore was ridiculous. I drove through the city on my way to the Hereford zone and there was merely a trace of snow on Pratt st but just a few miles north on the JFX near the zoo you could see a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 cant wait to do snow angels in my 3-5" tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Just don't define either group to keep everyone happy. I'm shooting for 1/2" that melts slowly in the rain. Are we gonna get that much? I thought temps got to 37 by 18Z with little in the way of precip. Did I miss something? I'm shooting form a car top dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Are we gonna get that much? I thought temps got to 37 by 18Z with little in the way of precip. Did I miss something? I'm shooting form a car top dusting.No you're probably right. 1/2" is my jackpot goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 No you're probably right. 1/2" is my jackpot goal. most snowlovers would have a hard time moving from CT to DC but since you hate snow and cold...i think you hit the jackpot with your move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 cant wait to do snow angels in my 3-5" tomorrow please take pictures so I can get my fix of great than 1 inch snows!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 the 12z euro looks colder again for my back yard. I bet wxbell shows 3-5 inches for JYO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Serious question... JB2 says that the current snow cover... will help keep the temperatures at bay and delay the change over from snow to mix... thinking about this... wouldn't the warm air a loft come in no matter what and not really be slowed down by the surface conditions? Shouldn't The overall circulatory/ flow associated with the low and other conditions a loft win out... Or can the snow help "thicken" the cold air... helping to maintain sub freezing conditions higher up in to the profile? JB2 is a snow weenie...sometimes his thoughts are legit and correct but at the end of the day he'll say whatever he needs to in order to project more snow...Near the bay snow cover is not very expansive so I dont see that being a factor..Also temps right now in places near the bay are pushing 40F today...Not a significant drop tonight..Dont see accumulating snow being favorable near the bay especially south of Harford County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 the 12z euro looks colder again for my back yard. I bet wxbell shows 3-5 inches for JYO It sure does. Even shows 3-1/2 for IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 got my 1/2"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'd love to be at PWM for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'd love to be at PWM for this. It is worth going to your sister for this one. The gradient between you and her house is one of the craziest i have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 ~5"....lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 got my 1/2"! ecmwf_snow_24_washdc_8.png I don't like the 3" differential across Fairfax County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It is worth going to your sister for this one. The gradient between you and her house is one of the craziest i have seen. Not sure it's worth traveling anywhere with this one unless you're just bored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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