North Balti Zen Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I will join you. Ravensrule can troll elsewhere with his weird double what I have total from the same area. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk His total is accurate. It's his location that's deceptive. Is he over your way? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Is he over your way? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk He's a bit further out. Closer to Stevenson University, I think. The campus on Greenspring Valley Rd, not Owings Mills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 His total is accurate. It's his location that's deceptive. FWIW, we've gotten about 7.5 inches from the two events here in what I'd describe as "South Towson" - I'm really not that far north of the city line. My sister down in Fells Pt. has gotten basically nothing...just a sloppy inch or so total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 He's a bit further out. Closer to Stevenson University, I think. The campus on Greenspring Valley Rd, not Owings Mills. Good lord. That's a massive difference from "Baltimore" in terms of snow climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 FWIW, we've gotten about 7.5 inches from the two events here in what I'd describe as "South Towson" - I'm really not that far north of the city line. My sister down in Fells Pt. has gotten basically nothing...just a sloppy inch or so total. Yes, the difference has been stark from inside the Beltway vs. outside the Beltway in Baltimore. I am about 1/2 of your total and we cannot be more than five miles apart. It snowed for five hours solid on Tuesday and barely accumulated where I was. Just couldn't get the temp to drop what it needed to. UHI effect, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'd banter in the banter thread but this one seems to be doing just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 6z must be a heartbreaker if no one has posted about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 6z must be a heartbreaker if no one has posted about it It's awesome if you live in the PA part of our sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It's awesome if you live in the PA part of our sub-forum. I love everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Snow is a great poster. My point is the Mason Dixon crowd needs its own region this season. Central Pa weenies despise us for our high totals mid atlantic weenies think this is a purely Pa climo event. It is a pure local anamoly unique to North MD and extreme south Pa this season only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 There are houses for sale up here. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Snow is a great poster. My point is the Mason Dixon crowd needs its own region this season. Central Pa weenies despise us for our high totals mid atlantic weenies think this is a purely Pa climo event. It is a pure local anamoly unique to North MD and extreme south Pa this season only. Tongue and cheek comment, not literal. They are a great group! Our weather has been highly localized, anamolous, and does not fit regional climo. We are the land of misfit toys this season. Stop thinking so IMBY. You can't break off every little region just because during certain events they do better than others. Didn't see parts of eastern MD/VA/DE saying they needed their own forum this summer when it rained for days from that cut off low. I got 13" of rain from that over 4 or 5 days. Martinsburg gets an ass load more snow than DC but they don't need their own area because come summer it is very similar to DC. One or two events don't suddenly make your area more awesome. It is a unique area in the MA where big differences occur in small distances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Ryan Mahue made them like that to get more subscribers. "Subscribe to weatherbell and see your snowfall forecasts increase!"Jb can rant all he wants but the issue is obvious to me. Those maps are fine on the northern side if the storm but near the snow/rain transition his algorithms assume a static temp for the whole 6 hour period. Usually waa is warming that zone during the height of the storm so in the transition area his maps add hours of snow after its obviously warmed. He is insulting to think we are too stupid to figure that out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hi Res Nam for WXbell - I borrowed this from JB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Third Winter Storm Watch of the year so far. Good start to the winter. My oldest is turning 10 today and she is asking Mother Nature to hold off on this storm till after tomorrow. Her party is tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 6z must be a heartbreaker if no one has posted about it It's not worth talking about unless it involves everyone in the region. We only talk about storms where it snows equally from Calvert to Hagerstown cuz that's climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Even taking the worst model we should get close to 2", that would put us at 10" and it will only be Dec 14. Pretty damn good for a winter that all the experts said would be below normal.Most not all. I have no skill with seasonal forecasting and don't even try but there were some that did correctly predict how the north PAC setup would lead to this and they deserve credit. Some years are easy to predict like 2010 or 2012 and others require figuring out how a dozen conflicting signals play out. The skilled mets who did see this did an amazing job or got lucky or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Oh. Sorry. I'll keep my thoughts to the PA thread No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 it's a 39.5 North winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Most not all. I have no skill with seasonal forecasting and don't even try but there were some that did correctly predict how the north PAC setup would lead to this and they deserve credit. Some years are easy to predict like 2010 or 2012 and others require figuring out how a dozen conflicting signals play out. The skilled mets who did see this did an amazing job or got lucky or both. JB was one of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I will take my slop. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 JB was one of those but he predicts cold and snow in the east every winter, so when it works out it's not skill imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is a relatively newb's observation. This forum is a great outlet for people with addictive personalities who chose weather (fortunately, instead of something much more destructive like drugs, alchohol or gambling). It is a lot of fun and exciting to anticpate the beauty that nature provides via a "perfect" snowstorm. We all have ideas what that perfect storm is in our heads and hope for it at each next "event". It is kind of like that toy you know you will probably never get at Christmas but there is still that window of hope. In this area we probably anticipate a really good snow more than most other places. We are usually feast and most often times famine due to our geographic location. Like a really good golf shot it is those "feasts" that keep us coming back. The bottom line is, we can look at model run after model run until the cows come home. The only one that is going to be right is the "real deal" which has a mind of it's own and will happen just as planned. There will be times where the models will be exactly what the storm has in mind and we will all pat ourselves on the back at the accuracy of the forecast and all of the associated banter we all brought to the movie theater to see the show. Tommorow's storm like every other one we encounter will have a mind of it's own! Some people will be pleasantly suprised and jumping for joy, others will be disapointed and trying to creat sub-groups of others that share in their event's misery. The bottom line is we all share the same passion for snow, so instead of being jealous of what the others guys got and what you didn't, try thinking good thoughts and warm wishes during the holiday season. A little good karma may help you on the backed end. My prediction for Saturday 3" for Annapolis. The water temp is 40 degrees at the mouth of the Severn right now and the Bay will be your savior for the colder temps needed to make frozen precip this winter! You heard it here first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 In winters past, all the models just blended FDK for the most part, not showing the "valley effect" on snow, but it seems overplayed a bit so far this year on the models (particularly the Hi-Res). Just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is a relatively newb's observation. This forum is a great outlet for people with addictive personalities who chose weather (fortunately, instead of something much more destructive like drugs, alchohol or gambling). It is a lot of fun and exciting to anticpate the beauty that nature provides via a "perfect" snowstorm. We all have ideas what that perfect storm is in our heads and hope for it at each next "event". It is kind of like that toy you know you will probably never get at Christmas but there is still that window of hope. In this area we probably anticipate a really good snow more than most other places. We are usually feast and most often times famine due to our geographic location. Like a really good golf shot it is those "feasts" that keep us coming back. The bottom line is, we can look at model run after model run until the cows come home. The only one that is going to be right is the "real deal" which has a mind of it's own and will happen just as planned. There will be times where the models will be exactly what the storm has in mind and we will all pat ourselves on the back at the accuracy of the forecast and all of the associated banter we all brought to the movie theater to see the show. Tommorow's storm like every other one we encounter will have a mind of it's own! Some people will be pleasantly suprised and jumping for joy, others will be disapointed and trying to creat sub-groups of others that share in their event's misery. The bottom line is we all share the same passion for snow, so instead of being jealous of what the others guys got and what you didn't, try thinking good thoughts and warm wishes during the holiday season. A little good karma may help you on the backed end. My prediction for Saturday 3" for Annapolis. The water temp is 40 degrees at the mouth of the Severn right now and the Bay will be your savior for the colder temps needed to make frozen precip this winter! You heard it here first! good post. Was, and probably will, make a similar post soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 but he predicts cold and snow in the east every winter, so when it works out it's not skill imho If you throw enough darts, you're bound to occasionally hit the bulls eye, but his monthly and seasonal predictions have been more insightful and accurate than the product from the boys and girls at the CPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 it's a 39.5 North winter 39.27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 39.27 Sometimes long = > lat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 After this one, there is nada on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Sometimes long = > lat Yep, but I usually lose that battle. I'm sure it will happen again sooner or later. Elevation is a pretty good trump card too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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