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The 12/14-15 The bad pattern storm


Ji

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His total is accurate. It's his location that's deceptive.

FWIW, we've gotten about 7.5 inches from the two events here in what I'd describe as "South Towson" - I'm really not that far north of the city line.

 

My sister down in Fells Pt. has gotten basically nothing...just a sloppy inch or so total.

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FWIW, we've gotten about 7.5 inches from the two events here in what I'd describe as "South Towson" - I'm really not that far north of the city line.

 

My sister down in Fells Pt. has gotten basically nothing...just a sloppy inch or so total.

 

Yes, the difference has been stark from inside the Beltway vs. outside the Beltway in Baltimore. I am about 1/2 of your total and we cannot be more than five miles apart. It snowed for five hours solid on Tuesday and barely accumulated where I was. Just couldn't get the temp to drop what it needed to. UHI effect, probably. 

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Snow is a great poster. My point is the Mason Dixon crowd needs its own region this season. Central Pa weenies despise us for our high totals mid atlantic weenies think this is a purely Pa climo event. It is a pure local anamoly unique to North MD and extreme south Pa this season only.

 

 

Tongue and cheek comment, not literal. They are a great group! Our weather has been highly localized, anamolous, and does not fit regional climo. We are the land of misfit toys this season.

 

Stop thinking so IMBY.  You can't break off every little region just because during certain events they do better than others.  Didn't see parts of eastern MD/VA/DE saying they needed their own forum this summer when it rained for days from that cut off low.  I got 13" of rain from that over 4 or 5 days. Martinsburg gets an ass load more snow than DC but they don't need their own area because come summer it is very similar to DC.  One or two events don't suddenly make your area more awesome.  It is a unique area in the MA where big differences occur in small distances.

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Ryan Mahue made them like that to get more subscribers. "Subscribe to weatherbell and see your snowfall forecasts increase!"

Jb can rant all he wants but the issue is obvious to me. Those maps are fine on the northern side if the storm but near the snow/rain transition his algorithms assume a static temp for the whole 6 hour period. Usually waa is warming that zone during the height of the storm so in the transition area his maps add hours of snow after its obviously warmed. He is insulting to think we are too stupid to figure that out
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Even taking the worst model we should get close to 2", that would put us at 10" and it will only be Dec 14. Pretty damn good for a winter that all the experts said would be below normal.

Most not all. I have no skill with seasonal forecasting and don't even try but there were some that did correctly predict how the north PAC setup would lead to this and they deserve credit. Some years are easy to predict like 2010 or 2012 and others require figuring out how a dozen conflicting signals play out. The skilled mets who did see this did an amazing job or got lucky or both.
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Most not all. I have no skill with seasonal forecasting and don't even try but there were some that did correctly predict how the north PAC setup would lead to this and they deserve credit. Some years are easy to predict like 2010 or 2012 and others require figuring out how a dozen conflicting signals play out. The skilled mets who did see this did an amazing job or got lucky or both.

JB was one of those

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This is a relatively newb's observation. This forum is a great outlet for people with addictive personalities who chose weather (fortunately, instead of something much more destructive like drugs, alchohol or gambling).  It is a lot of fun and exciting to anticpate the beauty that nature provides via a "perfect" snowstorm.  We all have ideas what that perfect storm is in our heads and hope for it at each next "event".  It is kind of like that toy you know you will probably never get at Christmas but there is still that window of hope.  In this area we probably anticipate a really good snow more than most other places.  We are usually feast and most often times famine due to our geographic location.  Like a really good golf shot it is those "feasts" that keep us coming back.  The bottom line is, we can look at model run after model run until the cows come home.  The only one that is going to be right is the "real deal" which has a mind of it's own and will happen just as planned.  There will be times where the models will be exactly what the storm has in mind and we will all pat ourselves on the back at the accuracy of the forecast and all of the associated banter we all brought to the movie theater to see the show.  Tommorow's storm like every other one we encounter will have a mind of it's own!  Some people will be pleasantly suprised and jumping for joy, others will be disapointed and trying to creat sub-groups of others that share in their event's misery.  The bottom line is we all share the same passion for snow, so instead of being jealous of what the others guys got and what you didn't, try thinking good thoughts and warm wishes during the holiday season.  A little good karma may help you on the backed end.

 

My prediction for Saturday 3" for Annapolis.  The water temp is 40 degrees at the mouth of the Severn right now and the Bay will be your savior for the colder temps needed to make frozen precip this winter!  You heard it here first!

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This is a relatively newb's observation. This forum is a great outlet for people with addictive personalities who chose weather (fortunately, instead of something much more destructive like drugs, alchohol or gambling).  It is a lot of fun and exciting to anticpate the beauty that nature provides via a "perfect" snowstorm.  We all have ideas what that perfect storm is in our heads and hope for it at each next "event".  It is kind of like that toy you know you will probably never get at Christmas but there is still that window of hope.  In this area we probably anticipate a really good snow more than most other places.  We are usually feast and most often times famine due to our geographic location.  Like a really good golf shot it is those "feasts" that keep us coming back.  The bottom line is, we can look at model run after model run until the cows come home.  The only one that is going to be right is the "real deal" which has a mind of it's own and will happen just as planned.  There will be times where the models will be exactly what the storm has in mind and we will all pat ourselves on the back at the accuracy of the forecast and all of the associated banter we all brought to the movie theater to see the show.  Tommorow's storm like every other one we encounter will have a mind of it's own!  Some people will be pleasantly suprised and jumping for joy, others will be disapointed and trying to creat sub-groups of others that share in their event's misery.  The bottom line is we all share the same passion for snow, so instead of being jealous of what the others guys got and what you didn't, try thinking good thoughts and warm wishes during the holiday season.  A little good karma may help you on the backed end.

 

My prediction for Saturday 3" for Annapolis.  The water temp is 40 degrees at the mouth of the Severn right now and the Bay will be your savior for the colder temps needed to make frozen precip this winter!  You heard it here first!

 

good post.  Was, and probably will, make a similar post soon.

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